It’s a dry heat: professional perspectives on extreme heat risk in Utah

Abstract

Heat waves are the deadliest weather-related hazard in the United States while also increasing in frequency, intensity, and duration. Population growth is also occurring in places most exposed to extreme heat. Current US National Weather Service (NWS) guidelines to issue heat alerts vary geographically and may not facilitate optimal heat risk communication. This study focuses on professionals’ decision making and communication in the context of extreme heat risk in Utah, a state with historically low but increasing heat risk due to climate change, a growing population, and rising outdoor recreation visitation. We analyze the mental models of decision-makers responsible for forecasting, communicating, and managing heat risk in Utah using interviews with 32 weather forecasters, media broadcasters, and public officials including park managers. Results demonstrate that institutional norms have influenced how forecasters characterize extreme heat in the western region of the US. NWS heat alerts and tools are new and unfamiliar to many decision-makers, especially in areas of the state where previous criteria did not warrant alerts. Only 44% of participants from these areas were familiar with NWS heat alerts compared to 100% of participants from areas with a history of heat events. While experience with NWS heat alerts and tools varied widely among participants, 100% were familiar with heat protective behaviors. 94% stated they had personally experienced extreme heat and 66% stated that this experience influenced their decisions. Personal experience may be an effective means to communicate heat risk and promote adaptive practices. These insights may be generalizable to other settings where risk is changing and communication strategies are underdeveloped.

KEYWORDS:

• risk communication
• extreme heat
• mental models
• decision-making
• communicators

Acknowledgements

We thank the collaborators at NWS, specifically Brian McInerney and Randy Graham. We also thank Yajie Li for assistance with interrater reliability analysis as a second coder.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This study was partially supported by two National Science Foundation grants: Grant No. 1633756 and Grant No. SES-1459872.