A cointegration analysis of structural change, international tourism and energy consumption on CO₂ emission in Pakistan

ABSTRACT

This study aims to inspect the impact of tourist’s arrivals, structural change, economic growth and energy use on carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan over the period 1981–2017. The study based on unit root tests employed Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) bounds and Bayer and Hanck [2013. Combining non-cointegration tests. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 34(1), 83–95. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2012.00814.x] combined cointegration test and confirms the presence of long-run relationship between the variables. To estimate the short and long-run results the study employed ARDL model and found that structural changes, international tourism and energy consumption are at the cost of environmental quality. The study further applied VECM based Granger causality test and revealed unidirectional causality from international tourist’s arrivals, GDP and energy consumption towards CO₂ emissions. This study suggests that the tourism in Pakistan should be on environmentally sustainable basis and the composition of economic activities should be more services oriented.

KEYWORDS:

• CO₂ emissions
• tourism
• structural change
• ARDL

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-27/as-terror-attacks-recede-tourism-in-pakistan-starts-to-thrive

2 https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic-impact...2018/world2018.pdf

3 https://knoema.com/EDGARED2019/global-ghg-and-co2-emissions