Simulation of Land Use/Cover Change in the Kingdom of Calakmul During the Late Classic Period (AD 600–900)

ABSTRACT

Spatio-temporal modelling of land use allows an analysis of change considering socio-economic, ecological and biophysical factors. We developed a ‘spatially explicit’ model to simulate land use/cover change in the Calakmul realm during the Late Classic period, taking into account the relationship between population density, agriculture strategies and erosion and drought. Different scenarios were simulated, combining agricultural systems, patterns of distribution of settlements, population densities and rainfall variability. The models showed that scenarios based on slash-and-burn agriculture only exhibit a collapse, with population densities much lower than those widely accepted by archaeologists. The simulation that implements a combination of slash-and-burn and intensive agriculture presents a population collapse around AD 860 in concordance with the records of the abandonment of the Maya Lowlands by the Terminal Classic. Spatially explicit land change models can be useful in reconstructing past environmental conditions and understanding the role of management practices and environmental change in the successes and failures of past societies.

KEYWORDS:

• Maya collapse
• Mayan civilisation
• prehistoric land use
• agricultural systems
• resilience
• spatial modelling

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Secretariat of Public Education and the National Council of Science and Technology (SEP-CONACYT) through the project ¿Puede la modelación espacial ayudarnos a entender los procesos de cambio de cobertura/uso del suelo y de degradación ambiental? (SEP-CONACYT CB-2012- 01-178816, https://www.ciga.unam.mx/wrappers/proyectoActual/modelacione/) and the Dirección General de Asuntos del Personal Académico (DGAPA) through the Postdoc Fellowship of the first author. The corrections of the manuscript were done during a sabbatical stay of the second author with the support of PASPA (Programa de Apoyos para la Superación del Personal Académico de la UNAM). Both authors are thankful to two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and useful suggestions on an earlier version of the manuscript.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Secretariat of Public Education and the National Council of Science and Technology (SEP-CONACYT) through the project ¿Puede la modelación espacial ayudarnos a entender los procesos de cambio de cobertura/uso del suelo y de degradación ambiental? (SEP-CONACYT CB-2012- 01-178816) and the Dirección General de Asuntos del Personal Académico (DGAPA) through the Postdoc Fellowship of the first author; CONACYT [grant number 239247].

Notes on contributors

Laura Alfonsina Chang-Martínez

Laura Alfonsina Chang-Martínez is a Biologist graduated from the Faculty of Biology at the Michoacana University of San Nicolas de Hidalgo (UMSNH), Michoacan, Mexico, with a Master in Ecology and Conservation in the Institutional Master of Biological Sciences from UMSNH and a PhD in Geography by the Center for Research in Environmental Geography at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). She is Postdoctoral fellow at the National School of Higher Studies, Morelia campus, UNAM and member of the National System of Researchers candidate level (2019–2021) in Mexico. It has four published national and international scientific articles, in addition to two published book chapters. She has collaborated in various research projects financed by national institutions such as CONANP and CONACYT and has been teaching at the undergraduate and graduate level for more than five years. The main lines of her research are palynology, land use/cover changes, remote sensing, and territorial ecological management.

Jean-François Mas

Jean-François Mas, Ph.D. is a tenured Professor in the Center of Research in Environmental Geography (Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental, CIGA) at the National University of Mexico (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, UNAM). He specializes in the fields of remote sensing, geographical information science, and spatial modelling. His research interests include land use/cover change monitoring and modelling, accuracy assessment of spatial data, forest inventory, and vegetation cartography. He has published more than 80 peer-reviewed scientic publications, advised 8 Ph.D. dissertations, supervised 14 master's degree students, and participated in 35 research projects.