Between escalation and détente: Greek-Turkish relations in the aftermath of the Eastern Mediterranean crisis

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to evaluate the state of Greek-Turkish relations in light of recent developments in the reconfiguration of Turkish foreign policy. Following twenty years of détente and relative calm in bilateral relations, the year 2020 witnessed two escalations in Greek-Turkish relations, one in March involving refugees and immigrants on the Greek-Turkish land border and another in August involving military vessels of the two countries. The refugee crisis and potential military conflict regarding energy exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean have raised tensions at a moment the political and institutional tools for the promotion of conflict resolution between Greece and Turkey linked to Turkey’s EU membership perspective appear to be obsolete. This paper seeks an answer to the question of whether structural or ideational factors played the most prominent role in the recent escalation of the Greek-Turkish disputes.

KEYWORDS:

• Turkey
• Greece
• foreign policy
• Cyprus
• energy

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No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Correction Statement

This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Notes

1 Couloumbis, “Strategic Consensus.”

2 Tsakonas, The Incomplete Breakthrough, 52–81, and Ker-Lindsay, “The Policies of Greece and Cyprus,” 72–74.

3 Öniş and Yılmaz, “Greek-Turkish Rapprochement,” 135-140.

4 Kubicek, Parlar Dal, and Oğuzlu, Turkey’s Rise; Erşen and Köstem, Turkey's Pivot to Eurasia; and Öniş and Kutlay, “The Dynamics.”

5 Oğuzlu, “Turkish Foreign Policy,” 133–135.

6 Kardas, “Quest for Strategic Autonomy,” 1–4.

7 Grigoriadis, “Greek-Turkish Relations,” 622–626.

8 See Shaheen and Smith, “Greek Court Turns Down Extradition Request for Eight Turkish Officers,” and Pamuk, “Greece Harbors Terrorists, Including PKK”.

9 Kujawa, “Security Challenges,” 102–108.

10 Özkırımlı and Sofos, Tormented by History.

11 Roberts, “Gas in the Eastern Mediterranean,” 76.

12 Grigoriadis, “Energy Discoveries,” and Adamides and Christou, “Can Resolving.”

13 Tagliapietra, Towards a New Eastern Mediterranean Energy Corridor? 24–27.

14 Grigoriadis, “Energy Discoveries,” 127–33, and Tsakiris, “The Importance of East Mediterranean Gas.”

15 Ulusoy, “Turkey and Israel,” 421–422.

16 Turkey’s overall relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood is an important issue in Turkish foreign policy, one taken up in Hakki Taş’s contribution to this Special Issue. See Taş, “Erdoğan and the Muslim Brotherhood.”

17 İpek and Gür, “Turkey’s Isolation,” 14–17.

18 See Tziampiris, “The New Eastern Mediterranean,” and The Emergence.

19 Ellinas, Tzimitras, and Roberts, Hydrocarbon Developments, 24.

20 Cubukcuoglu, “Turkey’s Muted Response,” and Hadjicostis, “Cyprus Blasts ‘Pirate State’ Turkey’s New Gas Drilling Bid”.

21 Demiryol, “Between Security and Prosperity.”

22 See also Yavuz, Nostalgia for the Empire, as well as Hintz, Identity Politics Inside Out.

23 Denizeau, “Mavi Vatan.”

24 On this see, Yaycı, “Doğu Akdeniz'de Yetki Alanlarının Paylaşılması,” and “Doğu Akdeniz’de deniz yetki alanlarının sınırlandırılmasında”; Başeren, Doğu Akdeniz’de Hukuk; and Öztürk and Başeren, “The exclusive economic zone debates.”

25 Çandar, Turkey’s Blue Homeland Doctrine.

26 United Nations, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

27 Tol and Taspinar, “Erdogan's Turn.”

28 Yeşiltaş, “Deciphering.”

29 Taş, “Erdoğan and the Muslim Brotherhood.”

30 Kancı, “Mavi Vatan’ı savunmak.”

31 Cubukcuoglu, “A Maritime Dispute.”

32 Gingeras, “Blue Homeland, ” and Erdemir and Kowalski, “‘Blue Homeland’”.

33 Hellenic Parliament, Agreement between the Government of the Hellenic Republic and the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt.

34 Hellenic Parliament, Agreement between the Government of the Hellenic Republic and the Government of the Italian Republic.

35 Grigoriadis and Belke, “UNCLOS.”

36 Bassist, “Emekli Türk amiralin.”

37 Erbakan, Milli Görüş, Uzer, “Conservative narrative.”: and Uzer, “Glorification of the Past.”

38 See also Ozturk, “Islam and Foreign Policy.”

39 Duran and Aydın, “Competing Occidentalisms,” 485–491.

40 UNHCR, Syria Regional Refugee Response.

41 European Council, “EU-Turkey Statement.”

42 Gatti, “The EU-Turkey Statement.”

43 The Facility for Refugees in Turkey is a fund to coordinate and administer the aid for the refugees resettled in Turkey by the EU.

44 Himmrich, “A ‘Hybrid Threat’?” 6.

45 Meanwhile, Turkish opposition writers tried to place the Syrian refugees on the securitization agenda. See, for example, Zileli, “Türkiye'nin en acil beka sorunu: Suriyeliler!..”.

46 Esen and Gumuscu, “Killing Competitive Authoritarianism,” 321–327.

47 Scipioni, “Failing Forward.”

48 Kaya, “Right-wing populism,” 16–18.

49 Adamson, “Crossing Borders.”

50 Gürsel, “Why Ankara’s,”.

51 “Son dakika haberleri! Erdoğan, “‘Kapatmayacağız’ deyip ekledi: Bugün 30 bini bulabilir!”.

52 Greenhill, Weapons of Mass Migration, and Greenhill, “Migration as a Weapon.”

53 Aydin, “Between Occidentalism and the Global Left.”

54 Çolakoğlu, “The Rise of Eurasianism.”

55 Dursun-Özkanca, Turkey-West Relations.

56 Dursun-Özkanca, “An Examination.”

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Ioannis N. Grigoriadis

Dr. Ioannis N. Grigoriadis is Associate Professor and Jean Monnet Chair of European Studies at the Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Bilkent University. He is also Senior Fellow and Head of the Program on Turkey at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP). He has published numerous academic articles and the following books: Ο Σίσυφος στην Ανατολή: 150 Κϵίμϵνα και Φωτογραφίϵς για την Τουρκία [Sisyphus in Anatolia: 150 Essays and Photographs on Turkey] (Thessaloniki: Epikentro, 2018); Democratic Transition and the Rise of Populist Majoritarianism: Constitutional Reform in Greece and Turkey (London: Palgrave Springer, 2017); Instilling Religion in Greek and Turkish Nationalism: A “Sacred Synthesis” (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012); and Trials of Europeanization: Turkish Political Culture and the European Union (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009). His research interests include late Ottoman and Republican Turkish politics and history with a focus on nationalism and democratization.