Assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation pathways for Thailand towards achievement of the 2°C and 1.5°C Paris Agreement targets

ABSTRACT

This study performed scenario analysis using the MARKAL modelling framework to assess Thailand’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways over the period 2010–2050, to explore the possibilities of achieving carbon neutrality of the energy system by 2060–2100, in pursuit of a maximum temperature rise of 2°C and 1.5°C by the end of the century. The shift from 2°C pathways to 1.5°C pathways would demand much more effort and pose greater challenges in terms of transformational changes required in the energy supply and demand sectors of Thailand. Carbon neutrality in the energy supply system would be achievable with negative emissions through the adoption of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The strong deployment of renewable energy-based power generation would also aid in the rapid decarbonization of the energy supply sector. The demand sectors would face more challenges requiring rapid and extensive deployment of energy efficient and low carbon technologies. The commercial sector may need to undergo deep decarbonization in the 1.5°C scenarios by 2050 while the industrial and residential sectors will need to curb GHG emissions by a large amount even under 2°C scenarios. The transportation sector would face challenges in shifting from private to public modes of transport, including wide adoption of electric and biofuel vehicles, in order to achieve the 1.5°C target.

Key Policy insights

• The attainment of 2°C and 1.5°C targets demand for a wide scale adoption of BECCS in Thailand resulting in negative emissions in the power sector even before 2050.

• Biomass, solar photovoltaics, and wind power would make up to the largest portion in the total power generation mix of Thailand in the 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios by 2050.

• Achieving carbon neutrality of the energy system by 2060–2100 is a challenging task for Thailand requiring higher investments and supportive policy actions to promote renewables, carbon capture and storage technologies, and energy efficiency enhancements.

KEYWORDS:

• 2°C
• nationally determined contribution (NDC)
• energy system
• greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
• MARKAL
• Thailand

Acknowledgement

The authors would like to thank the Sustainable Energy and Low Carbon Research Unit and the Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (SIIT), Thammasat University, Thailand for providing the scholarship. However, only the authors are responsible for any remaining errors in this paper.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 ADB (1998) states citing ‘Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB)’ that the government of Thailand uses a 10% discount rate.

2 Particulate matter emissions, having a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers.

3 ‘Final non-energy uses of fuel’ includes energy products used as raw materials in different sectors that are not consumed as a fuel or transformed into another fuel. This includes use of condensate, liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas, and natural gas liquid for various production activities. As this paper only deals with attaining carbon neutrality of the energy system, the emissions from non-energy sectors such as agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU), industrial processes and product use (IPPU), and waste were not considered.

4 E10, E20 and E85 are abbreviations referring to 10%, 20% and 85% of ethanol fuel blended with 90%, 80% and 15% of gasoline by volume, respectively.

5 CNG and LPG are the abbreviations used for compressed natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas, respectively. B5, B7, B10, and B20 represents biofuel blends consisting of up to 5%, 7%, 10% and 20% of bio-oil and 95%, 93%, 90% and 80% of diesel by volume, respectively.

6 BC is considered to be a major contributor to the PM_2.5 emissions. In order to avoid the double counting, the PM_2.5 emissions reported in this paper deduct the contribution of BC emissions. This study has considered the BC/PM_2.5 ratios of 16.1% to estimate the contribution of BC in PM_2.5 emissions (Phanukarn et al., 2020).