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Astropolitics
The International Journal of Space Politics & Policy
Volume 17, 2019 - Issue 1: Space Power and Security Trilemma in South Asia
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Articles

Space Security Dilemma: India and China

Pages 23-37 | Published online: 16 Feb 2019
 

ABSTRACT

There is an ongoing debate on an India-China space race. Both states have made investments in the space domain for the last few decades for social, scientific, commercial, and military reasons. The January 2007 anti-satellite test conducted by China significantly raised international concerns on issues concerning space security. China’s strategic space program is witnessing major advances, and China’s attainments in the space arena in terms of its financial investments, expanse of programs, technology proficiency, and future plans are ahead of those of India. At the same time, both states are pursuing programs such as the development of navigational networks and missions to the Moon and Mars. In this context, it is of interest to analyze China’s increasing focus on satellite technologies and India’s response. This article analyzes the possible manifestation of a “security dilemma” in the context of outer space among these states and concludes that the dilemma is suggestive, but not definitive.

Notes

1. These rankings are as per the 2017 statistics published by the World Economic Forum (WEF), https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in-2017/ (accessed September 10, 2018).

2. John H. Herz, The Security Dilemma in International Relations: Background and Present Problems (New York, NY: Sage, 2003); “Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma,” World Politics 2, no. 2 (January 1950): 157–80.

3. Ken Booth and Nicholas Wheeler, The Security Dilemma: Fear, Cooperation and Trust in World Politics (Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008), 1–272.

4. This entire section of the security dilemma is based on Robert Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics 30, no. 2 (January 1978): 167–214; also see John W. Garver, “The Security Dilemma in Sino‐Indian Relations,” India Review 4, no. 1 (2002): 1–38; and on the security dilemma see Anders Wivel, Bertrand Badie, Dirk Berg-Schlosser, and Leonardo Morlino (eds.), International Encyclopedia of Political Science (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 2011).

5. Jonah Blank, “What were China’s Objectives in the Doklam Dispute?” Foreign Affairs, 7 September 2017.

6. N. Modi during a panel discussion at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, 2 June 2017.

7. Kimong Heng, “The Rise of China: Global Threat or International Peace?,” UC Occasional Paper Series 1, no.1 (March 2017): 1–18.

8. Derek Watkins, “What China has been Building in the South China Sea,” The New York Times, 27 October 2015. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/30/world/asia/what-china-has-been-building-in-the-south-china-sea.html (accessed 14 February 2019).

9. Frank O’Donnell, “Stabilizing Sino-Indian Security Relations” (talk presented at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, Washington, DC, 10 July 2018).

10. As per the sources from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. This was mentioned during an informal discussion. The 2017-18 figures indicate that India imported goods worth US$76.4 billion from China and exported  US$13.3 billion. https://www.telegraphindia.com/opinion/india-could-get-hurt-in-trade-crossfire-between-china-and-the-us/cid/1671906 (accessed 14 February 2019).

11. Harsh V. Pant, “Rising China in India’s Vicinity: A Rivalry Takes Shape in Asia,” Cambridge Review of International Affairs 29, no. 2 (2016): 364–381.

12. Garver, “Security Dilemma in Sino‐Indian Relations,” 1–38.

13. David Brewster, “An Indian Ocean Dilemma: Sino-Indian Rivalry and China’s Strategic Vulnerability in the Indian Ocean,” Journal of the Indian Ocean Region 11, no. 1 (2015): 48–59.

14. Ibid.

15. Gregor Kulacki and Jeffery Lewis, A Place for One’s Mat: China’s Space Program, 1956–2003 (Cambridge, MA: American Academy of Arts and Science, 2009), 9.

16. “China’s BeiDou Navigation Satellite System,” White Paper, 16 June 2016, http://www.china.org.cn/government/whitepaper/2016-06/16/content_38681076.htm (accessed 12 February 2019).

17. Rui Barbosa, “China Marks 32nd Launch of 2018 with Latest Beidou Lift Off,” NASA Spaceflight, 1 November 2018, https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/11/china-32nd-launch-2018-latest-beidou-lift-off/ (accessed 10 November 2018).

18. Andrew Jones, “China’s Mars Orbiter-Rover Mission on Course for 2020 Launch Window,” Global Times, 18 October 2018, https://gbtimes.com/chinas-mars-orbiter-rover-mission-on-course-for-2020-launch-window/ (accessed 10 November 2018).

19. “The United Nations/China Cooperation on the Utilization of the China Space Station,” United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/psa/hsti/chinaspacestation/1st_cycle_2018.html (accessed 2 November 2018).

20. “The Saga of Indian Remote Sensing Satellite System,” ISRO, https://www.isro.gov.in/saga-of-indian-remote-sensing-satellite-system (accessed 24 September 2018).

21. Narayan Prasad Nagendra, “Diversification of the Indian Space Programme in the Past Decade: Perspectives on Implications and Challenges,” Space Policy 36, no. 2 (May 2016): 38–45.

22. “Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV),” ISRO, https://www.isro.gov.in/launchers/gslv (accessed 1 November 2018).

23. Zulfqar Khan and Ahmad Khan, “Chinese Capabilities as a Global Space Power,” Astropolitics 13, no.1 2–3 (2015): 185–204.

24. James Clay Moltz, Asia’s Space Race (New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2011).

25. “Number of Satellites in Orbit by Country as of April 30, 2018,” Statistica, https://www.statista.com/statistics/264472/number-of-satellites-in-orbit-by-operating-country/ (accessed 20 October 2018).

26. Kartik Bommakanti, “India and China’s Space and Naval Capabilities: A Comparative Analysis” Occasional Paper (New Delhi: Observer Research Foundation, 23 July 2018), 41–43.

27. Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2018 (Washington, DC: Office of the Secretary of Defense, 16 May 2018); also see Sandra Erwin, “Pentagon Report: China’s Space Program ‘Continues to Mature Rapidly,” 20 August 2018, https://spacenews.com/pentagon-report-chinas-space-program-continues-to-mature-rapidly/ (accessed 03 January 2019).

28. Eric Heginbotham, et al., The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017 (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corp., 2015).

29. Ranjana Kaul and V. Siddhartha, “International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities,” in Decoding the International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities, ed. Ajey Lele (New Delhi, India: Pentagon Press, 2012), 151.

30. BRICS is the acronym for an association of major developing economies. This group consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

31. Statement by the Indian Ambassador DB Vekatesh Verma in CD Plenary, March 2015, http://meaindia.nic.in/cdgeneva/?3909?000 (accessed 10 November 2018).

32. Manish Tewari and Bharath Gopalaswamy, “Transforming India from a Balancing to Leading Power,” Issue Brief, June 2017, http://www.css.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/resources/docs/AtlanticCouncil-Transforming_India_from_a_Balancing_to_Leading_Power.pdf (accessed 15 September 2018).

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