Time Series-Based Photovoltaic Power Forecasting to Optimize Grid Stability

Abstract

The increase in penetration of solar photovoltaics into the traditional grid and the accelerating growth of smart grids have introduced new challenges to grid stability. Forecasting the output power from solar PV systems and time-based analysis for the performance characteristics of solar PV under different weather conditions is essential to improve the grid stability. The generated PV power is intermittent in nature and is influenced by meteorological parameters such as pressure, temperature, relative humidity, and solar zenith angle. With the influence of the above parameters, a novel power forecasting model has been developed using Supervised Machine Learning Algorithm. The historical weather data of a given location have been fetched from National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) with the corresponding location coordinates. Multivariate data are used as inputs to train a Decision Tree Regression Model in order to predict the solar irradiance parameters such as Global Horizontal Irradiance, Direct Normal Irradiance, and Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance which are essential to calculate the output power harnessed from the grid-connected PV system. The results are favorable for the application and have depicted minimal deviation with an average accuracy of 86.02%. This technique also rules out the need of hardware power prediction modules, favoring a cost-efficient methodology.

Keywords:

• photovoltaic
• meteorological parameters
• grid stability
• power forecasting
• irradiance

Acknowledgement

Authors wish to express their deep and sincere gratitude to the Management of Thiagarajar College of Engineering, Madurai for supporting them in every possible way to accomplish this research work.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Parthasarathy Seshadri

Parthasarathy Seshadri is pursuing his bachelor's in Electrical and Electronics Engineering at Thiagarajar College of Engineering, graduating in 2023. He is an exceptional student who works in multidisciplinary areas of research which includes renewable energy systems with emphasis on applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools to solar PV, Digital and Analog design, VLSI and Electronic Design Automation (EDA) for high speed integrated circuits.

Bagavat Perumaal T.S.

T. S. Bagavat Perumaal currently pursuing is B.E. in Electrical and Electronics Engineering at Thiagarajar College of Engineering, Madurai, and graduating in 2023. He is currently working in the field of photovoltaic energy efficiency and characterization with an emphasis on silicon-based solar cells. His area of research interest is solar cell analysis and characterization, photovoltaic energy efficiency, control system design and Analog and Digital Design.

Ashok Kumar B.

B. Ashok Kumar completed his under graduation in E&I from MK University, Madurai during 2003 and post graduate in Applied Electronics from Anna University Chennai during 2006. He started his career as Lecturer in RVS College of Engineering and Technology, Dindigul during 2003. Currently, he is working as Assistant Professor in Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Thiagarajar College of Engineering. He completed Ph.D during 2016 in ICE from Anna University, Chennai. His research interest covers mitigation of power quality issues, energy auditing and performance analysis solar PV system.

Keerthana H.

H. Keerthana has completed Electrical and Electronics engineering from Thiagarajar College of Engineering during 2021. Currently she is working as an Associate Software Engineer in Accenture solutions. Her research interests include electric power components and systems.

Kavinmathi G.

G. Kavinmathi has completed Electrical and Electronics Engineering from Thiagarajar College of Engineering during 2021. Currently she is working as an Associate Software Engineer in Accenture solutions. Her research interests include electric power components and systems.

Senthilrani S.

S. Senthilrani completed her under graduation in EEE from MK University, Madurai during 2003. Then received post graduated degree in VLSI design from SASTRA University, Tanjore during 2005. Since 2005 emerged as a teaching fellow. In 2005, joined PSNA College of Engineering and Technology as Lecturer in Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering and later got associated with Velammal College of Engineering and Technology in the year 2008. Currently, she is working as Associate Professor in the Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Velammal College of Engineering and Technology. Completed Ph.D during 2017 in ICE from Anna University, Chennai. Her research area includes semiconductor device modelling, reliability analysis of semiconductor devices in DSM level and performance analysis of computing devices.