Research on Grid Parity Predictions of Centralized Photovoltaic Electricity

ABSTRACT

Over the past decade, the photovoltaic (PV) industry in China has made great progress. However, this progress benefited from a series of subsidy policies, and with the continuous enlargement of the scale of centralized PV (CPV), the large subsidies have created great pressure on government finance, so achieving grid parity in CPV electricity is an urgent matter. This paper studies the grid parity of CPV electricity. First, this paper calculates the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of CPV electricity. Second, using historical data and a dual learning curve, the paper predicts the LCOE of CPV electricity under scenarios with different resource zones and utilization times. Third, the paper predicts the LCOE of coal-fired electricity and draws conclusions based on changes in the price of coal and charcoal. Finally, the paper predicts when grid parity in CPV electricity in different resources areas will be achieved.

KEY WORDS:

• centralized photovoltaic electricity (CPV)
• grid parity
• learning curve
• levelized cost of energy (LCOE)

JEL:

• Q4

Additional information

Funding

The paper is supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [grant 2018ZD14 and GB2016MS69].