Risk of climate change to sweet potato cultivation in the American continent

ABSTRACT

Sweet potato, Ipomoea potatoes L., is an essential crop for food security in various countries. However, the effects of climate change could reduce or increase the yield and profitability of this crop, especially for small farmers. Thus, we developed species distribution models for the current and six climate change scenarios based on environmental variables, species occurrence, and global climate change model. Also, we identified the most relevant environmental variables for cultivation. Future scenarios showed gradual shifts in suitable areas for cultivation. Losses in suitable areas were more relevant than gains at the low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6). This trend is maintained in the worst scenario of a high concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5) with more significant losses of suitable areas. The temperature and precipitation of warmest and wettest quarters, temperature seasonality, and isothermality are the most critical variables for sweet potato cultivation. The cultivation is expected to expand the suitable areas in some regions and retract in others due to climate change. Knowledge about climate change effects in cultivated areas is essential for developing management plans that could mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.

KEYWORDS:

• Global warming
• horticulture
• MaxEnt model
• species distribution

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was funded by to the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel - Brazil (CAPES) funding code 001, the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), and the Foundation for Supporting Research in the state of Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG).