Deep learning approach for one-hour ahead forecasting of weather data

ABSTRACT

Weather is made up of multiple parameters, including solar radiation (SR), atmospheric pressure (AP), soil temperature (ST), atmospheric temperature (AT), wind speed (WS), relative humidity (RH), and sunshine duration (SD). These factors are also crucial for the renewable energy sector, solar simulation, agriculture, air pollution, water supply and distribution, avalanche warning, forestry, and town and regional planning. A deep learning method based on a neural network with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) was employed in this investigation for one-hour-ahead weather data forecasting. The ability of the LSTM model was compared with the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with that of the fuzzy c-means (FCM), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. Mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R), root means square error (RMSE), average bias, Nash – Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were selected as evaluation criteria. Results indicated that the proposed LSTM model presented good enough results compared to other used methods. 7 different types of meteorological data from a total of 4 years (35040 hours) were divided into 25% test data and 75% training data for the models. The best result was obtained for the hourly ST estimation of Adana province using the LSTM method, the MAE, RMSE, R, bias, NSE, and MAPE values were computed as 0.016°C, 0.078°C, 0.9999, −0.00018°C, 0.0805%, and 0.9999, respectively. On the other hand, the worst result was obtained for the hourly SD for Mardin province when ARIMA was used, and the statistical measures were derived as 0.128 hours for MAE, 0.215 hours for RMSE, 0.8851 for R, 0.00091 hours for bias, and 0.7657 for NSE. In this regard, it is demonstrated that the LSTM technique outperformed the other models in terms of all-weather data estimates and delivered highly sensitive outcomes.

KEYWORDS:

• Atmospheric parameters
• estimation
• ARMA
• ARIMA
• LSTM
• ANFIS FCM

Acknowledgment

The State Meteorological Department of Türkiye provided data for which the author is exceedingly appreciative.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Arif Ozbek

Arif Ozbek is an associate professor in Mechanical Engineering Department, Cukurova University, Türkiye. He has been a member of the Chamber of Mechanical Engineers of Turkey since 2000. His research interests are thermodynamics, renewable energy, heat transfer and air-conditioning systems.