Asymmetric co-integration relationship among coal production, real estate development, and CO2 emissions in China

ABSTRACT

The real estate industry is associated with coal production and CO₂ emissions. The nonlinear ARDL (AutoRegressive Distributed Lag) co-integration method was used to analyze the effects of long-term and short-term real estate development and CO₂ emissions on coal production. The results showed that: (1) The positive and negative impacts of CO₂ emissions on coal production were similar in the long. Moreover, CO₂ emissions negatively affected coal production; (2) In the long run, the positive impact of real estate development on coal production is greater than the negative impact, though it is not significant. In the short term, the negative shock of real estate effectively reduced coal production; (3) The impact of coal production on CO₂ emissions is symmetric in both the long and short term. Therefore, in the future, real estate should develop moderately. In addition, lessening coal production demand is crucial to ensure coal production reduction and carbon neutrality.

KEYWORDS:

• Coal production
• CO₂ emissions
• real estate
• nonlinear AutoRegressive distributed lag model
• asymmetry

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

¹ https://data.stats.gov.cn/

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Joint Ph.D. Program of “Double First Rate” Construction Disciplines of CUMT under Grant, great consulting projects of Chinese Academy of Engineering under Grant [2021NXZD3-3] and key project of Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Coal-based Greenhouse Gas Control and Utilization under Grant [NO.2020ZDZZ03].