Long-term transport decarbonization pathways in the European Union: a strategic energy-economy analysis

ABSTRACT

To reach climate neutrality by mid-century, the EU needs to decarbonize its transport sector. Transition options include electrification, biofuels, hydrogen, and e-fuels (synthetic fuels). Owing to their uncertain and disruptive role, we assess the potential contribution of e-fuels deployment to the EU transport decarbonization in line with the region’s climate neutrality ambition in 2050. To do so, we enhance the representation of competing fuels in the PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model. We quantify two contrasting transport scenarios: one with notable contribution from e-fuels, and a second scenario without e-fuels but with maximum use of the alternative options. Findings are arrayed in a Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats analysis. Electrification of private transport mobility in urban and sub-urban areas emerges as a key option in both pathways. However, the two scenarios differ in the other technology and fuel choices, with implications on road freight transport, infrastructure, R&D spending, and maturity requirements for alternative vehicles.

KEYWORDS:

• Transport decarbonization
• synthetic fuels in transport
• E-fuels
• electric vehicles
• Energy-Economy modeling
• scenario analysis

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement numbers 730403 and 821124. The content of this research does not reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Responsibility for the information and views expressed herein lies entirely with the authors.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the European Commission [730403, 821124].