A composite energy resilience performance indicator for Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

A “Composite Energy Resilience Index (CERI)” was developed with 15 individual indicators. A two-round Delphi technique was used to interview stakeholders to extract key energy resilience issues of Bangladesh based on a conceptual framework from the literature review. A total of 15 indicators were selected from the findings of the Delphi technique and using these indicators, the energy resilience framework for the country was developed. Constructed CERI implies that energy resilience of Bangladesh is critically dependent on a set of affordability, sustainability, and availability issues as well as the qualitative aspects of the energy system management, such as institutional effectiveness, governance, and regulatory quality. It implies important policy implications in terms of developing holistic energy strategies for supporting the economic development aspiration of the country. The findings also suggest that the energy resilience performance under the planned scenario based on the long-term government plans and the business-as-usual scenario is likely to improve the resilience performance by 2030. However, the required improvement might be ambitious considering the low base level and the prevailing geopolitical situation. As such, a systematic approach to energy system resilience is warranted.

KEYWORDS:

• Energy Resilience
• Delphi Technique
• Conceptual Content Analysis
• Energy Resilience Framework
• Principal Component Analysis
• Composite Index

Highlights

• A two-round Delphi process identified key energy resilience issues, indicators, and energy resilience framework for Bangladesh.

• The Delphi resulted in 50 energy resilience issues under four dimensions and five phases.

• Through a content analysis, 15 indicators were selected to construct a Composite Energy Resilience Index (CERI).

• A Principal Component Analysis was performed to determine the weight of the selected indicators.

• The resulting CERI revealed that traditional energy security indicators and qualitative aspects of energy system management are critical for the energy system resilience of Bangladesh.

• Historical and forecasted energy resilience performance under the planned and business as usual scenarios indicated an improved energy resilience performance by 2030.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplemental Material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2022.2149901.