Pipe failure rate prediction in water distribution networks using multivariate adaptive regression splines and random forest techniques

ABSTRACT

This paper presents the results of a comparison between multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and random forest (RF) techniques in pipe failure prediction in two water distribution networks. In this regard, pipe diameter, pipe length, pipe installation depth, pipe age and average hydraulic pressure are considered as input variables. Results show that the RF outperforms the MARS which is found as an accurate pipe failure rate predictor. The proposed models are further evaluated through dividing the data into three parts of lower, medium and higher pipe failure rate values. According to the equations produced by MARS technique, three variables of pipe diameter, pipe age and average hydraulic pressure are distinguished as the most effective variables in predicting pipe failure rate in the first case study. Four variables of pipe diameter, pipe length, pipe age and average hydraulic pressure are determined as the most effective variables in the second case study.

KEYWORDS:

• Multivariate adaptive regression splines
• random forest
• pipe failure rate
• prediction model
• water distribution network

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.