Jewish intelligence and the question of the Arab countries invasion prior to the 1948 War of Independence

ABSTRACT

Before the end of the British Mandate and the establishment of the State of Israel, the Yishuv’s intelligence services assessed that King Abdullah would be willing to accept the existence of a Jewish state and that the other Arab countries, for internal and external reasons, would not be interested in getting involved in war. They concluded that an invasion by regular Arab armies in response to a declaration of a Jewish state would be a ‘low probability’ and that Arab propaganda calling for the destruction of Israel only amounted to a war of nerves. Today it is abundantly clear that the intelligence agencies failed to weigh these factors correctly. In fact, what primarily motivated the Arab regimes to launch an all-out war was indeed their internal and external situation, since by so doing they could divert public attention away from their internal problems and ameliorate their external status.

KEYWORDS:

• Civil-military relations
• intelligence assessment
• Israel
• War of Independence
• Ben-Gurion
• British Mandate

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

¹ Mordechai Bar-On, El mul pene ha-milhamah ha-hazakah [In the forefront of the fiercest battles: research essays on the history of Israel’s War of Independence], (Tel Aviv: Efi Meltser, 2015), 174. [Hebrew]; David Tal, War in Palestine, 1948: Israeli and Arab Strategy and Diplomacy (Portland: Routledge, 2003), 182.

² Avi Shlaim, Collusion Across the Jordan: King Abdullah, the Zionist Movement, and the Partition of Palestine (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1988); Ilan Pappe, The Making of the Arab-Israeli Conflict, 1947–1951 (London: I.B. Tauris, 1992).

³ Yigal Elam, “On the Myth of the ‘few against the many’ in 1948,” Palestine – Israel Journal of Politics, Economics, and Culture 9, no. 4, (2002): 50–57.

⁴ Graham Jevon, “The Arab Legion and the 1948 War: The Conduct of ‘Collusion’?” English Historical Review 130, no. 545 (2015): 907–933; Yoav Gelber, Independence Versus Nakba (Tel-Aviv: Dvir, 2004), 204–205 [Hebrew].

⁵ Fawaz A. Gerges, “Egypt and the 1948 War: Internal Conflict and Regional Ambition,” in The War for Palestine: Rewriting the History of 1948, ed. Eugene L. Rogan and Avi Shlaim (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 151–177.

⁶ Ronen Yitzhak, “The Question of Arab Solidarity in the 1948 War: Political Interests versus Military Considerations,” Mediterranean Quarterly 19, no. 2 (2008): 19–46.

⁷ Joshua Landis, “Syria and the Palestine War: Fighting King Abdullah’s ‘Grater Syria’ Plan,” in The War for Palestine: Rewriting the History of 1948, ed. Eugene L. Rogan and Avi Shlaim (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 178–205.

⁸ Matthew Hughes, “Lebanon’s Armed Forces and the Arab-Israeli War, 1948–49,” Journal of Palestine Studies 34, no. 2 (2005): 24–41.

⁹ The Hagana Information Service [SHAI] dealt mainly with the activities of the Arabs groups operating inside Palestine. The Arab Section of the Jewish Agency had good contacts within the Arab countries.

¹⁰ Oded Yinon, Dov Yanon – Reshit hamechkar bamodiin hisraeli [The Beginning of Research in Israeli Intelligence] (Tel Aviv: Hamama Sifrootit, 2013) [Hebrew]; Yoav Gelber, Nitzaney hachavetzelet: Hamodiin bemilchemet haatzmaoot 1947–1949 [The History of Israeli Intelligence: Israeli Intelligence in the War of Independence, 1947–1949] (Tel Aviv: Israel Ministry of Defense Publications, 2001) [Hebrew]; Asa Lefen, SHAI – Shirut Haydiot: Shorshiha shel kehilat hamodiin [The Roots of the Israeli Intelligence Community] (Tel Aviv: Ministry of Defense, 1997). [Hebrew].

¹¹ Meir Zamir, The Secret Anglo-French War in the Middle East: Intelligence and Decolonization, 1940–1948 (London: Routledge, 2016), 146–7.

¹² Lefen, The Roots of the Israeli Intelligence, 233.

¹³ Yinon, Dov Yanon, 148.

¹⁴ Hughes, “Lebanon’s Armed Forces,” 27; William l. Cleveland and Martin Bunton, A History of the Modern Middle East (Boulder: Westview Press, 2013), 280–282; Michael Appel, “The Arab States and the 1948 War in Palestine: The Socio-Political Struggles, the Compelling Nationalist Discourse and the Regional Context of Involvement,” Middle Eastern Studies 48, no. 1 (2012): 27; Yaacov Shimoni, Medinot arav: Pirkey historia medinit [The Arab States: Their Contemporary History and Politics] (Tel Aviv: Am Oved, 1977), 478, 569. [Hebrew].

¹⁵ Tony Smith, “A Comparative Study of French and British Decolonization,” Comparative Studies in Society and History 20, no. 1 (1978): 70–102; Jacob Abadi, Britain’s Withdrawal from the Middle East, 1947–1971: The Economic and Strategic Imperatives (Princeton: The Kingston Press, 1982).

¹⁶ Shimoni, The Arab State, 392–93. For more on British interests in the Middle East in general and in Palestine in particular, see for example: Wm. Roger Louis, The British Empire in the Middle East 1945–1951 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1984); Ellen Jenny Ravndal, “Exit Britain: British Withdrawal from the Palestine Mandate in the Early Cold War, 1947–1948,” Diplomacy & Statecraft 21, no. 3 (2010): 416–33; Ezra Nishry, The Israeli War of Liberation, 1947–1948 (Reut: Efi Meltser, 2018). [Hebrew].

¹⁷ Johanna Caldwell, “Inter-Arab Rivalry and the All-Palestine Government,” Jerusalem Quarterly 62 (2015): 58.

¹⁸ Michael Appel, “Syrian-Iraqi Relations during the 1948 Palestine War,” Middle Eastern Studies 32, no. 3 (1996): 74–5; Bruce Maddy-Weitzman, “Jordan and Iraq: Efforts at Intra-Hashemite Unity,” Middle Eastern Studies 26, no. 1 (1990): 65–75.

¹⁹ Thomas Mayer, “Arab Unity of Action and the Palestine Question, 1945–48,” Middle Eastern Studies 22, no. 3 (1986): 331–49.

²⁰ Gelber, The History of Israeli Intelligence, 379.

²¹ Report on the convening of the Arab League, February 29, 1948, Ben Gurion Archives (BGA), correspondence; Letter from Sasson to Shertok, May 5, 1948 (BGA), correspondence; ‘In the Arab camp’, May 11, 1948, Central Zionist Archives (CZA), file S25\9046; ‘In the Arab camp’, February 22, 1948, Hagana Archive (HA), file 105/352. All archives documents and newspaper reports are in Hebrew.

²² ‘Report in the newspaper Al-Musawar’, January 1, 1948, (HA), file 105/138

²³ On the life and work of Eliahu Sasson, see Yaron Ran, Ha-Arabist (Modiʻin: Efi Meltser, 2018), [Hebrew].

²⁴ Report by Eliyahu Sasson, October 21 1947, (CZA), file s25\9020.

²⁵ Letter from Sasson to Shertok, February 29, 1948, (BGA), correspondence.

²⁶ ‘Memorandum by the Arab Section of the Jewish Agency’s Political Department’, March 1, 1948, in Political and Diplomatic Documents: December 1947- May 1948, ed. Gedalia Yogev (Jerusalem: Israel State Archives, 1979), 398–402.

²⁷ Letter from Sasson to Shertok, May 5, 1948, (BGA), correspondence.

²⁸ ‘Report in the newspaper Al-Musawar’, January 1, 1948 (HA), file 105/138.

²⁹ Outcome of a meeting in Amman, May 2, 1948 (HA), file 105/112; ‘The Student’ also reported this to his operator in the SHAI, May 13, 1948 (HA), file 105/112.

³⁰ ‘Tene’ Daily Report, May 5, 1948 (HA), file 115,58; See also: ‘The Military Preparations by the Arab Governments for the Attack and the Occupation of the Land of Israel’, May 13, 1948, (HA) file 105/112.

³¹ ‘In the Arab camp, May 11, 1948; (HA), file 105/147.

³² Moshe Shertok to Norman Armour, the USA Assistant Secretary of State for Political Affairs, December 12, 1948, (CZA), file S25\1584; Letter from Moshe Shertok to Chairman of the U.N. Palestine Commission, January 20, 1948, in Yogev Political and Diplomatic Documents, 196–197.

³³ John and David Kimche, Both Sides of the Hill (London: Secker & Warburg, 1960), 60.

³⁴ A report by Eliyahu Sasson, October 21, 1947 + October 31, 1947, (CZA), file S25\9020.

³⁵ Eliyahu Sasson to Shertok, December 20, 1947, in Yogev Political and Diplomatic Documents, 90.

³⁶ ‘Memorandum by the Jewish agency office, New York’, January 30, 1948, in Yogev Political and Diplomatic Documents, 272.

³⁷ ‘Memorandum by the Arab Section of the Jewish Agency’s Political Department’, March 1, 1948, in Yogev Political and Diplomatic Documents, 399.

³⁸ Letter from Sasson to Shertok, February 29, 1948, (BGA), correspondence. A similar assessment was published simultaneously by the SHAI, ‘In the Arab camp, news summary’, February 29, 1948 (HA), file 105/352.

³⁹ From Sasson to Shertok, April 8, 1948, (CZA), file S25\8996.

⁴⁰ ‘Minutes of the meeting of the Arab Section of the Political Department of the Jewish Agency’, April 22, 1948, (CZA), file S25\9664.

⁴¹ From Sasson to Shertok, May 5, 1948, (BGA), correspondence.

⁴² Eliyahu Sasson, Baderech el hashlom: Igrot vesicgot [On the road to peace: Letters and conversations] (Tel Aviv: Am-Oved, 1978): 394–97. [Hebrew]. See also (CZA), file S25\9038.

⁴³ ‘Daily News Digest’, December 28, 1948 (HA), file 115/58.

⁴⁴ ‘Tene’ Daily Report, April 20, 1948, (HA), file 115/58.

⁴⁵ ‘Tene’ Daily Report, April 29, 1948, (HA), file 115/58.

⁴⁶ Report by ‘The Student’, May 13, 1948, (HA), file 105/112.

⁴⁷ ‘Security and intelligence officials Meeting’, January 1–2, 1948 (BGA), protocols.

⁴⁸ From Sasson to Shertok, May 5, 1948, (BGA), correspondence.

⁴⁹ ‘In the Arab camp, news summary’, May 11, 1948, (CZA), file S25\9046.

⁵⁰ ‘On the Sawfar meeting’, undated (HA), file 105/138.

⁵¹ ‘Tene’ Daily Report, December 28, 1947, (HA), file 115/58.

⁵² ‘In the Arab camp, May 11, 1948; (HA), file 105/147.

⁵³ ‘Tene’ Daily Report, May 12, 1948, (HA), file 115/58.

⁵⁴ Report by ‘The Student’, May 13, 1948, (HA), file 105/112.

⁵⁵ ‘Invasion and partition of the land’, January 1, 1948 (HA), file 105/60; ‘The ‘Anglo-Arab agreement against partition’, January 26, 1948 (HA), file 105/60; See also: ‘Security and intelligence officials meeting’, January 1–2, 1948 (BGA), protocols.

⁵⁶ Zamir, The Secret Anglo-French War, 163–4.

⁵⁷ Ben-Gurion’s diary, April 20, 1948; From Sasson to Shertok, May 5, 1948, (CZA), file S25\8996.

⁵⁸ ‘Security and intelligence officials Meeting‘, January 1–2, 1948 (BGA), protocols.

⁵⁹ From Sasson to Shertok, May 8, 1948, (CZA), file S25\8996.

⁶⁰ Ben-Gurion’s diary, April 20, 1948.

⁶¹ See, for example, ‘A Conversation with Abdallah Ben Hussein,’ August 12, 1946 (CZA), file S44\731; Letter from Sasson to Shertok, December 11, 1947, (CZA), file S25\1700; Ben-Gurion’s diary, December 22, 1947; Ezra Danin to Sasson, January 1, 1948, in Yogev Political and Diplomatic Documents, 126.

⁶² Letter from Zvi Maymon to Yaacov Shimoni and Reuven Zaslany, September 14, 1947, (CZA), file S25\9013.

⁶³ Letter from Sasson to Meyerson, January 27, 1948, (CZA), file S25/1701. See also Letter from Sasson to Shertoke, January 13, 1948, (CZA), file S25/1701.

⁶⁴ ‘Security and intelligence officials Meeting ‘, January 1–2, 1948 (BGA), protocols.

⁶⁵ Ben-Gurion’s diary, January 19, 1948.

⁶⁶ Letter from Sasson to Shertok, April 19, 1948 (BGA), correspondence.

⁶⁷ ‘Tene’ Daily Report, April 18, 1948, (HA), file 115/58; ‘Tene’ Daily Report, April 20, 1948, (HA), file 115/58; Results of a meeting in Amman, May 2, 1948 (HA), file 105/112; Letter from Sasson to Shertok, April 19, 1948 (BGA), correspondence.

⁶⁸ ‘Minutes of the meeting of the Arab Section of the Political Department of the Jewish Agency’, April 22, 1948, (CZA), file S25\9664.

⁶⁹ ‘Minutes of the meeting of the Arab Section of the Political Department of the Jewish Agency’, May 13, 1948, (CZA), file S25\5634.

⁷⁰ ‘Russia warns Syria and Lebanon, Davar, January 15, 1948.

⁷¹ Philip Ben, “Abdallah’s declaration of war against whom?” Ma’ariv, April 27, 1948.

⁷² Davar, “Conflicting Rumors about Abdullah’s Plans,” May 7, 1948; See also “Conflicting Trends in Arab Policy,” Al-Hamishmar, February 10, 1948.

⁷³ “Dispute between the League’s Countries,” Davar, May 9, 1948.

⁷⁴ Israel Ber, “On Security,” Al-Hamishmar, May 3, 1948.

⁷⁵ “Not to the taste of Downing Street,” Al-Hamishmar, May 12, 1948.

⁷⁶ “Zero Hour,” Al-Hamishmar, May 14, 1948.

⁷⁷ Kimche, Both Sides of the Hill, 60–62.

⁷⁸ May 11, 1948 (BGA), protocols; October 29, 1947 (BGA), protocols; December 11, 1947 (BGA), protocols; February 10, 1948 (BGA), protocols.

⁷⁹ G. Rivlin and E. Orren, eds., The War of Independence: Ben-Gurion’s Diary (Tel Aviv: Ministry of Defense, 1982), January 8, 1948; (BGA), speeches, January 8, 1948.

⁸⁰ February 3, 1948 (BGA), speeches; February 3, 1948 (BGA), protocols.

⁸¹ February 10, 1948 (BGA), protocols.

⁸² February 19, 1948 (BGA), protocols.

⁸³ Ben-Gurion’s diary, March 20, 1948.

⁸⁴ Moshe Sharett, Spoken Out, eds. Yaakov and Rina Sharett (Tel-Aviv: Moshe Sharett Heritage Society, 2013), 60. [Hebrew].

⁸⁵ ‘Reports of the Arab armies – invasion’, May 9, 1948; (HA), file 105/138.

⁸⁶ Yogev, Political and Diplomatic Documents, 402.

⁸⁷ Zamir, The Secret Anglo-French War, 164–165.

⁸⁸ The War of Independence: Ben-Gurion’s Diary, January 1, 1948; (CZA), file S25\3569; ‘Plan to conquer the land’, October 24, 1947, (CZA), file S25\8996; ‘An interview by a source in the Arab Section with a journalist’, March 28, 1948, (CZA), file S25\9020; ‘Minutes of the meeting of the Arab Section of the Political Department of the Jewish Agency’, April 22, 1948, (CZA), file S25\9664.

⁸⁹ Appel, “The Arab States and the 1948 War in Palestine,” 26.

⁹⁰ Kimche, Both Sides of the Hill, 60–62. John and David Kimchi conclusions: “The mood among the Arabs was determined by the young men who set fire to the streets of Cairo.”

⁹¹ Landis, “Syria and the Palestine War,” 74–91.

⁹² Davar, “Conflicting Rumors about Abdullah’s Plans,” May 7, 1948. Abd al-Rahman Azzam, secretary of the Arab League, was quoted as saying: “there is no choice but to intervene in order to save the Arabs of Palestine”.

⁹³ Francis Harry Hinsley, British Intelligence in the Second World War. Vol. 1 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1979): 431.