A Fuzzy Bayesian approach for ‘Appraisal’ of ship voyage plans

ABSTRACT

The voyage plans are vital for safe navigation. Organisations such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) have established guidelines for voyage planning to decrease risks. Inaccuracies performed during the preparation of voyage plans are among the causes of high rates of detention, according to port state inspection reports. In addition, these inaccuracies are frequently encountered in marine accident investigation reports. Many critical factors should be evaluated by masters in conjunction with their officers in the ‘Appraisal’ section of the voyage plans . This research aims to offer a novel model that may identify the weights of importance for each contributing factor involved in the process of voyage plan appraisal. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) were used to determine the weightings of the elements underlying the appraisal section. The findings offer valuable data for developing new strategies to reduce the risk of maritime accidents and ship detentions.

KEYWORDS:

• Marine navigation
• safety of navigation
• voyage plan
• Fuzzy Bayesian Network (FBN)
• risk analysis

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).