Application of expected value and chance constraint on uncertain supply chain model with cost, risk and visibility for COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT

In today’s world, the role of supply chain management including transportation plays a vital role in the financial and economic growth of the country. The supply chain management is most seriously impacted by a new global pandemic, known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This effect becomes more challenging for the manufacturers as well as suppliers due to the high demand for most essential items. The twin effects of uncertain interval supply chain visibility (SCV) and supply chain risk (SCR) on the efficiency of the supply chain management are explored in this paper. In this investigation, two different models namely the expected value model (EV model) and the chance-constrained model (CC model) using uncertain interval programming techniques have been developed. These models are converted into their corresponding deterministic forms using goal programming method and linear weighted method. Hence, our model incorporates the objectives of SCV maximization, SCR minimization, and cost minimization under the constraints of budget, demand, capacity, supply risk, supply availability, etc. The sensitivity analysis and managerial insight of the models are also discussed to examine the variation in the objective function for deciding the case of emergency environment like pandemic causes by COVID 19. Finally, a real-life example is given to exhibit the effectiveness and usefulness of our proposed study.

KEYWORDS:

• COVID 19
• supply chain visibility
• supply chain risk
• uncertain interval programming
• goal programming method

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).