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ABSTRACT
Considerable concern ahead of Kenya’s 2017 elections that violence would mar the polls was fuelled by a history of election-related violence, a failure to address many of the underlying causes of violence, a highly polarized political environment, and opposition claims that the polls would be rigged. More specifically, there were fears that a dispute over the presidential election could lead to ethnic violence between supporters of President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga. There were also concerns that any protests, particularly by opposition supporters, would be met with considerable police force. Given this context, the paper addresses two issues. First, why, despite years of security reforms, limited protests were met with high levels of police force, resulting in loss of life. Second, why ethnic and gang-related violence did not become a widespread problem. The analysis highlights how the (non)occurrence of violence was encouraged by positions taken by prominent politicians, the broader legal and institutional context, and institutional cultures. Hence, the analysis moves beyond a common depiction of election-related violence in Kenya as simply ethnic and elite instigated, and seeks to provide a more nuanced account that looks at the relationship between structure, agency and different kinds of election-related violence.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes
1 Kahura, “Election 2017.”
2 Kahura, “Election 2017”; Cheeseman et al., “Kenya’s 2017 Elections.”
3 Kagwanja, “Courting Genocide,” 365.
4 Ibid.
5 Branch, Kenya; Kagwanja, “Courting Genocide”; Mutahi, “Political Violence in the Elections.”
6 Kagwanja, “Politics of Marionettes.”
7 Lynch, “Durable Solutions.”
8 Republic of Kenya, Report of the CIPEV, 311.
9 Republic of Kenya, Tribal Clashes in Kenya; National Council of Churches of Kenya, The Cursed Arrow; Republic of Kenya, Ethnic Clashes in Western Kenya; Human Rights Watch, Divide and Rule, 28–32.
10 Fred Mukinda, “Security agents Blamed for Killings,” Daily Nation, July 30, 2009. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/1056-632490-jn7j26z/index.html.
11 Republic of Kenya, Report of the CIPEV, 23.
12 Republic of Kenya, Report of the CIPEV; Kanyinga, “The Legacy of the White Highlands.”
13 Mueller, “Kenya and the ICC.”
14 Ruteere, “More than Political Tools”; Republic of Kenya, Report of the CIPEV.
15 Republic of Kenya, Report of the CIPEV, 398.
16 Republic of Kenya, Police Reform Programme 2015–2018; Republic of Kenya, Report of the National Taskforce on Police Reforms.
17 Mueller, “Political Economy of Kenya’s Crisis,” 185–210.
18 Bourmand, Histoire Politique du Kenya, 168; Widner, The Rise of the Party State, 165–166; Kanyinga, “Hobbling Along to Pay-offs,” 24–25; Chege, “A Case for Electoral Reform.”
19 Lynch, I Say to You.
20 Cheeseman et al., “Democracy and its Discontents”; Lynch, “Electing the ‘Alliance of the Accused’.”
21 Ibid.
22 Moses Nyamori, “Drums of Violence in Kenya are Beating, CJ Willy Mutunga and Church Warn,” Standard Digital, October 31, 2015. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000181199/drums-of-violence-in-kenya-are-beating-cj-willy-mutunga-and-church-warn?pageNo=2.
23 Cyrus Ombati, “Questions Over Daring Raid at NASA Offices,” Standard Digital, August 6, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250430/questions-over-daring-raid-at-nasa-offices.
24 Justus Wanga, “Foreign Experts Deported After Night Attack on Nasa Vote Centre ,” Daily Nation, August 5, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Foreigners-working-for-Nasa-face-deportation/1056-4046072-sul0dsz/index.html.
25 Mohamed Ahmed, “Knife Attack Rocks Galole Tallying Centre in Tana River,” Daily Nation, August 9, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Knife-attack-Hola-Tana-River/1056-4051566-gr9d6g/index.html.
26 Briana Duggan, Faith Karimi, and Chandrika Narayan, “24 Killed in Post-election Violence in Kenya, Rights Group Says,” CNN, August 13, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/12/africa/kenya-elections-protests/index.html.
27 Interviews with community leaders in Kisumu and Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) official, 9 November 2017.
28 There are no recorded reports of sexual assault or rape and many of the community groups report that it is very difficult to get the alleged victims to open up on their experiences. Interviews with civil society groups officials and Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) official, 9 November 2017.
29 Rawlings Otieno and Moses Nyangori, “NASA chiefs insist there will be no election without electoral reforms”. Standard Digital, October 17, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001257565/nasa-chiefs-insist-there-will-be-no-election-without-electoral-reforms.
30 Waddilove, “Support or subvert”, in this issue, looks at mobilization around the fresh polls including in Kisumu.
31 National Police Service “Press release”, October 27, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. http://www.nationalpolice.go.ke/2015-09-08-17-56-33/news/218-press-release-8.html.
32 KNCHR, Still a Mirage, 4.
33 Ibid.
34 Human Rights Watch, They Were Men in Uniform.
35 Stella Cherono, “Ipoa Forwards Probe Files into Police Killings to DPP Tobiko,” Daily Nation, November 13, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Ipoa-concludes-investigations-into-police-killings/1056-4185516-fbd3l8z/index.html.
36 Cyrus Ombati, “Kenya Police Given Sh8.1b to Lease Vehicles Ahead of Elections,” Standard Digital, March 30, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001234542/kenya-police-given-sh8-1b-to-lease-vehicles-ahead-of-elections.
37 Paul Thoronjo and Mercy Odhiambo, “Kibicho: We are ‘150,000 Officers Ready for the Elections,” Standard Digital, August 4, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250250/kibicho-we-are-150-000-officers-ready-for-the-elections.
38 Interviews with civil society actors monitoring the election in Nairobi, Migori and Kwale conducted between May-November 2017.
39 FIDH/KHRC, Kenya’s Scorecard on Security and Justice, 23.
40 Interviews with civil society informants in Kisumu, 9 October 2017.
41 Osse, “Police Reform in Kenya,” 210.
42 Joseph Ndunda, “Who Will Guard the Cops if IPOA Can’t Access ‘Privileged Information’?” The Star, February 14, 2017. Accessed March 2, 2019. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/02/14/who-will-guard-the-cops-if-ipoa-cant-access-privileged-information_c1495241.
43 Ibid.
44 Matilda Nzioki, “Kayole OCPD Accused of Attacking Ipoa Officer,” Tuko, August 1, 2016. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.tuko.co.ke/164822-kayole-ocpd-spot-brandishing-gun-officers-investigating.html#164822.
45 Interview with a civil society key informant, 20 September 2017.
46 Nancy Agutu, “Uhuru Praises Police for Job Well Done in Elections,” The Star, December 2, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/12/02/uhuru-praises-police-for-job-well-done-in-election_c1678720.
47 Nabiso Kabale, “Nairobi Business Community Vows to Counter NASA Protests,” Standard Digital, October 2, 2017 Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001256178/nairobi-business-community-vows-to-counter-nasa-protests.
48 Julius Otieno, “We are Not Mungiki, Nairobi Business Community Speaks,” The Star, October 16, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/10/16/we-are-not-mungiki-nairobi-business-community-speaks_c1652098.
49 Interviews with Kibera, Mathare and Kawangware residents conducted between May-November 2017.
50 Interviews with Mathare residents conducted between May-November 2017.
51 Interviews in Kibera, Mathare and Kawangware conducted between May-November 2017.
52 Interviews with Kawangware residents, October 2017.
53 Maurice Alal, “Politicians told to end violence in Migori County,” The Star, January 21, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/01/21/politicians-told-to-end-violence-in-migori-county_c1491231.
54 Joseph Muraya, “Police Hunting for Politician Accused of Planning, Financing Kawangware Violence,” Capital News, October 28, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2018. https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2017/10/police-hunting-for-politician-accused-of-planning-financing-kawangware-violence/.
55 Cheeseman et al., “Kenya’s 2017 Elections.”
56 Willis, et al, “Marginalization and Political Participation.”
57 Interviews with former MRC members in Kwale, August 2017.
58 Interviews with opinion leaders in Kwale, August 2017.
59 Interviews with political leaders in Kwale, August 2017.
60 Otiso, “An Evaluation of Political Mobilization Strategies,” 178.
61 Lynch, “Not All Youth on Campaign Trail are Used and Paid by Politicians,” Daily Nation, July 22, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.nation.co.ke/oped/opinion/lynch-youth-campaign-trail-used-paid-politicians/440808-4027014-qlbifn/index.html.
62 Ibid.
63 Kagwanja, “Politics of Marionettes,” 1.
64 Mark Oloo, “State Rolls Out Security Plan for 20 Poll Chaos Hot Spots,” Standard Digital, July 2, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001245663/state-rolls-out-security-plan-for-20-poll-chaos-hot-spots.
65 Lynch, “Electing the ‘Alliance of the Accused’,” 103.
66 Lynch, ibid; Malik, “Mobilizing a Defensive Kikuyu-Kalenjin Alliance.”
67 Cheeseman et al., “Democracy and its Discontents,” 16.
68 Ibid, 16.
69 Mathews Ndanyi, “Tell Buzeki to Quit Race or Else … Mandago tells Ruto,” The Star, June 6, 2017. Acccessed March 1, 2019. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/06/06/tell-buzeki-to-quit-race-or-else-mandago-tells-ruto_c1574235.
70 Jeremiah Kiplang’at, “Uhuru, DP Ruto tour Uasin Gishu,” Daily Nation, June 10, 2017. Acccessed March 1, 2019. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Uhuru-tours-Eldoret-to-stop-fallout/1064-3963904-blqlmfz/index.html.
71 The Standard, “Kabogo Remarks on Ruto’s 2022 Support for Top Seat Jolt Jubilee,” June 12, 2017. Acccessed March 1, 2019. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000204889/kabogo-remarks-on-ruto-s-2022-support-for-top-seat-jolt-jubilee.
72 Sara Okuoro, “NASA Files Petition Challenging Uhuru’s Win,” Standard Digital, August 18, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001251827/nasa-files-petition-challenging-uhuru-s-win.
73 Emmanuel Wanjala, “We Won’t Challenge Presidential Results,” The Star, August 11, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/08/11/we-wont-challenge-presidential-results-in-court-nasa_c1615245.
74 Sara Okuoro, “NASA Files Petition Challenging Uhuru’s Win,” Standard Digital, August 18, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001251827/nasa-files-petition-challenging-uhuru-s-win.
75 Kanyinga and Odote, “Judicialisation of Politics,” this issue.
76 Charges against Kenyatta were withdrawn on 5 December 2014 due to insufficient evidence. Judges declined to confirm charges against Kosgey and Ali on 23 January 2012 while Muthaura’s charges were withdrawn on 11 March 2013. On 5 April 2016, Trial Chamber V(A) decided, by majority that the case against Ruto and Sang be terminated.
77 Christine Lagat, “Kenya Heightens Action on Hate Speech Ahead of August Polls,” Xinhua, February 27, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. http://www.xinhuanet.com//english/2017-02/27/c_136089448.htm.
78 Interviews with CSO key informants in Nairobi, October 2017.
79 These guidelines were not new and had been released in the run up to the 2013 elections. Communications Authority of Kenya, Guidelines.
80 Brian Moseti, “Fears Emerge Over Social Media Rules,” Daily Nation, July 6, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Fears-emerge-over-social-media-rules-/1056-4003444-cbrlx0z/index.html.
81 KTN Kenya, “Kisumu Governor Elect Anyang Nyong’o Appeals to the Angry Youths in Kisumu Not to Destroy Property,” August 13, 2017. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATXN-zhh3ew.
82 Anthony Maina, “Anyang’ Nyong’o Pulls Surprise Move in Jubilee Stronghold,” Pulse Live, Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.pulselive.co.ke/news/politics/kisumu-governor-in-kericho-anyang-nyongo-pulls-surprise-move-in-jubilee-stronghold/klllzj1.
83 Tom Kagwe, “Setting the Record Straight on Police Transformation, ” The Star, October 9, 2018. Accessed March 1, 2019. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2018/10/09/setting-the-record-straight-on-police-transformation_c1831269.