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ABSTRACT
Following the Supreme Court’s decision to annul the August 2017 Kenyan elections, many commentators – including journalists, academics, politicians and non-elite Kenyan voters – criticised international election observation missions on the grounds that they had declared the election ‘free and fair’. This article argues that specific allegations of incompetence and bias fail to acknowledge how international observers’ preliminary statements restrained from offering final verdicts or commenting upon the tallying process in which the problems emerged. Rather, due to a combination of the media environment and popular expectations about observers’ work, the complexity of their statements was lost as their findings were disseminated. This suggests that a fairer critique of international observers would focus on how they communicate, including when they decide to make their statements. It also shows that both the circulation of information relating to observers and popular perceptions of observation missions are important issues, despite being relatively overlooked by scholars working on election observation.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Sara Rich Dorman, Hugh Lamarque, Paul Nugent, Wafula Okumu, two anonymous reviewers, and colleagues at the University of Edinburgh’s Centre of African Studies who participated our ‘brown bag’ lunch for valuable comments on drafts. The authors are also grateful for the feedback received after versions of this paper were presented at the 8th European Conference on African Studies in Edinburgh, and the 26th Moi University Public Lecture in Eldoret.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes
1. For an overview of the election, see Cheeseman et al., “Kenya’s 2017 Election.”
2. Chege, “Kenya’s Electoral Misfire.”
3. The East African, “Raila Odinga Says IEBC Systems Were Hacked.” 9 August 2017. http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/2558-4050834-2rpv8h/index.html; and The Guardian, “Clashes in Kenya after Opposition Leader’s Election Fraud Claim.” 9 August 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/09/kenya-presidential-election-raila-odinga-early-results-uhuru-kenyatta
4. For analysis of the court case, see Kanyinga and Odote, “Judicialisation of Politics”.
5. Supreme Court of Kenya, Majority Judgment, 6.
6. McCormick, “Unprecedented Reversal.”
7. Supreme Court of Kenya, Majority Judgment, 177.
8. Ibid., 119.
9. Chege, “Kenya’s Electoral Misfire.”
10. For details on the 1980 Zimbabwe observation, see Chan, “Free and Fair?”
11. For competing explanations of the emergence of international election observation, see Kelley, “Assessing the Complex Evolution of Norms”; and Hyde, The Pseudo-Democrat’s Dilemma.
12. Beaulieu and Hyde, “Shadow of Democracy Promotion”, 401.
13. Hyde, Pseudo-Democrat’s Dilemma, 125–42.
14. Carothers, “The Observers Observed”, 19; and Hyde, Pseudo-Democrat’s Dilemma, 196.
15. Hyde, Pseudo-Democrat’s Dilemma, 127–8.
16. Geisler, “Fair?”; and Carothers, “The Observers Observed”.
17. Already by 2000 Jon Abbink observed “a tendency of repetitiveness, or at least of identifying common problems and suggesting fairly similar solutions” in the literature on election monitoring. See Abbink, “Introduction.”
18. For discussion of the relative merits of domestic and international observers, see Nevitte and Canton, “Role of Domestic Observers”; and Geisler, “Fair?”, 635–6.
19. Geisler, “Fair?”; and Carothers, “The Observers Observed.”
20. The leading groups can be identified by using Judith Kelley’s assessment of observer quality. By setting the criterion as IEOMs’ willingness to criticise problematic elections, she finds that the best that operate in Africa are The Carter Center, the European Union, the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute. See Kelley, “Election Observers and Their Biases”, 9.
21. van Dijk, “Secret Worlds”; and Chan, “Free and Fair?”
22. Chan, “Free and Fair?”; and Carothers, “The Observers Observed”, 23.
23. Abbink, “Introduction”, 13.
24. Carothers, “The Observers Observed”, 22; and Geisler, “Fair?”, 615.
25. Kelley, “Election Observers and Their Biases”, 162.
26. Beaulieu and Hyde, “Shadow of Democracy Promotion.”
27. Ibid.
28. Chan, “Free and Fair?”
29. Geisler, “Fair?” 620–1; and Cheeseman, Lynch, and Willis, “How Election Monitors are Failing.”
30. For example, the Ugandan elections in 1980, the Kenyan elections in 1992 and the Nigerian elections in 1999. For details, see Willis, Lynch, and Cheeseman, “A Valid Electoral Exercise?”; Geisler, “Fair?”; and Kew, “Democrazy.”
31. Kelley, “Election Observers and Their Biases”; and Kelley, “D-Minus Elections.”
32. This was, for example, the case with the EU observer mission at the 2016 Ugandan elections. See Cheeseman and Klaas, How to Rig an Election, 192–3.
33. Hyde, Pseudo-Democrat’s Dilemma, 206.
34. Abbink, “Introduction”, 8.
35. Hyde, “Why Believe”, 53.
36. Kelley, “Election Observers and Their Biases”; Kelley, “D-Minus Elections”; and Kelley, “Good, Bad, and Ugly.”
37. Cheeseman and Klaas, How to Rig an Election, 189.
38. Kelley, “D-Minus Elections.”
39. Carothers, “The Observers Observed”, 25; Kelley, “Election Observers and Their Biases”; and Kelley, “D-Minus Elections.”
40. Daxecker, “Cost of Exposing Cheating”.
41. Willis, Lynch, and Cheeseman, “A Valid Electoral Exercise?”
42. Geisler, “Fair?”, 617–8; and Carothers, “The Observers Observed”, 23–4.
43. United Nations, “Declaration of Principles.”
44. See, for example, European Commission, “Handbook.”
45. Elklit and Reynolds, “A Framework”; and Kelley, “Election Observers and Their Biases.”
46. Arceneaux and Leithner, “International Monitors.”
47. Kelley, “Election Observers and Their Biases”; and Kelley, “D-Minus Elections.”
48. Kelley, “More the Merrier?”; and Arceneaux and Leithner, “International Monitors.”
49. Hyde, Pseudo-Democrat’s Dilemma, 159–69; and Cheeseman and Klaas, How to Rig an Election, 200–2.
50. Klaas, “Curse of Low Expectations.”
51. Cheeseman and Klaas, How to Rig an Election, 198.
52. Ibid.
53. Kelley, “D-Minus Elections”, 772–3.
54. Carothers, “The Observers Observed”, 30.
55. For details of the move away from free and fair, see Chan, “Free and Fair?”
56. Cheeseman and Klaas, How to Rig an Election, 7.
57. For example, in Kenya. Brown and Raddatz, “Dire Consequences.”
58. Daily Nation, “5000-Strong World Team Keeps an Eye on Critical Kenyan Polls.” 4 August 2017. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/Global-team-to-monitor-Kenyan-polls/1056-4044250-nfw38r/index.html
59. ELOG, Observation Report, 5, 18, 64.
60. Verjee, “After Kenya’s August Elections.”
61. The Standard, “Kenya Third Country in the World and First in Africa to Annul a Presidential Election.” 2 September 2017. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001253337/kenya-third-country-in-the-world-and-first-in-africa-to-annul-a-presidential-election
62. McCormick, “Unprecedented Reversal.”
63. Wamai, “Kenya’s Supreme Court Ruling.”
64. The Star, “African Union urges Kenyans to Accept Supreme Court Ruling Today.” 1 September 2017. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/09/01/african-union-urges-kenyans-to-accept-supreme-court-ruling-today_c1627051
65. The Star, “Free and Fair? Why the foreign election observers got it wrong.” 26 September 2017. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/09/26/free-and-fair-why-the-foreign-election-observers-got-it-wrong_c1633166
66. Financial Times, “Kenya’s Judges Take on a Faulty Election System.” 3 September 2017. https://www.ft.com/content/d73a3cce-8f1a-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d
67. McCormick, “Unprecedented Reversal.”
68. Ibid.
69. Interview, opposition party youth leader, western Kenya, 19 October 2017.
70. Pers. comm., civil society activist, Nairobi, 9 October 2017.
71. Interview, NCIC field officer 1, Rift Valley, 16 October 2017.
72. KNCHR, The Fallacious Vote; See also The East African, “Chaotic, Violent Primaries in Kenya Ominous.” 20 April 2017. http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/oped/editorial/-Kenya-chaotic-violent-primaries-ominous--/434752-3896728-lw3cyr/index.html
73. Pers. comm., driver, Busia, 13 October 2017.
74. Interview, ORPP officer, western Kenya, 23 October 2017.
75. Interview, Kenyan doctoral student 1, UK, 8 November 2017.
76. Interview, Programme Manager, democracy NGO, Nairobi, 15 November 2017.
77. Interview, ELOG constituency observer 1, Rift Valley, 18 October 2017.
78. Interview, aspirant MP for 8 August elections, Rift Valley, 30 October 2017.
79. Ruthrauff, “EU Election Observers.”
80. Kahura, “See No Evil.”
81. Kuo, and Dahir, “Foreign Election Observers.”
82. Ibid.
83. Epstein, “Kenya.”
84. Ibid.
85. Ibid.
86. Interview, Kenyan doctoral student 1, UK, 8 November 2017.
87. Ibid.
88. Ruthrauff, “EU Election Observers.”
89. African Union Election Observation Mission to the Republic of Kenya, “Preliminary Statement.”
90. Carter Center Election Observation Mission to the Republic of Kenya, “Preliminary Statement.”
91. European Union Election Observation Mission to the Republic of Kenya, “Preliminary Statement”, 3.
92. Commonwealth Election Observation Mission to the Republic of Kenya, “Interim Statement.”
93. BBC World Service Newshour, “Interview with EU Chief Observer Marietje Schaake.” 1 September 2017, at 2m7s. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7VVM_XxxaI; NTV, “Interview with EU Chief Observer Marietje Schaake.” 11 September 2017, at 3m41s. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTIPoMYkTUc; KTN, “Yvonne Okwara’s Interview with EU Chief Observer Marietje Schaake.” 3 October 2017, at 8m54s. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YS5DIXxPekU; and Marietje Schaake. “We Didn’t ‘Okay’ Kenyan Polls.” The Star, 6 September 2017. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/09/06/we-didnt-okay-kenyan-polls_c1629719
94. BBC World Service Newshour, “Interview with Marietje Schaake”, at 1m19s.
95. Ruthrauff, “EU Election Observers.”
96. BBC, “Kenya election: Uhuru Kenyatta defeats Raila Odinga.” 11 August 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-40905379
97. The Star, “Kenya Election was Fair, No Sign of Manipulation – EAC, EU Observers.” 10 August 2017. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/08/10/kenya-election-was-fair-no-sign-of-manipulation-eac-eu-observers_c1614022
98. The Independent, “Observers Declare Kenya Election Fair Despite Opposition Leader’s Outcry Over ‘Fake' Results.” 10 August 2017. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/kenya-election-2017-latest-results-fair-observers-uhuru-kenyatta-raila-odinga-a7886651.html
99. Capital FM, “Observers Give Kenya Poll Conduct Thumbs Up.” 10 August 2017. https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2017/08/observers-give-kenya-poll-conduct-thumbs-up/
100. The Standard, “Kenya Third Country in the World and First in Africa to Annul a Presidential Election.” 2 September 2017. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001253337/kenya-third-country-in-the-world-and-first-in-africa-to-annul-a-presidential-election
101. Al Jazeera, “How Kenya became the Latest Victim of ‘Fake News'.” 27 August 2017. https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/08/kenya-latest-victim-fake-news-170816121455181.html
102. Dwyer and Molony, “Mapping the Study.”
103. EUEOM Kenya, Internal Social Media Overview Documents; #EueomLies; and Unknown, “Preliminary Report of the IRI.”
104. Interview, Director, Nairobi-based research centre, Nairobi, 15 November 2017.
105. Raila Odinga. “Never Again Will Impunity Reign in Kenya – Raila.” The Star, 1 September 2017. https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/09/01/statement-never-again-will-impunity-reign-in-kenya-raila_c1628282
106. Pers. comm., Kenyan doctoral student 2, UK, 25 August 2018.
107. Business Daily, “Why Kenya Must Learn to Live with Poll Observers.” 14 September 2017. https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/analysis/Why-Kenya-must-learn-to-live-with-poll-observers/539548-4096272-sjjbp7/index.html
108. Kuo and Dahir, “Foreign Election Observers.”
109. Supreme Court of Kenya, Majority Judgment.
110. Daily Nation, “Be Vigilant During Repeat Poll, Raila Tells Observers.” 22 September 2017. http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Raila-observers-be-vigilant/1064-4106984-format-xhtml-xghh32z/index.htm
111. Pers. comm., Kenyan doctoral student 2, UK, 25 August 2018.
112. Interview, Kenyan doctoral student 1, UK, 8 November 2017.
113. Interview, ORPP officer, western Kenya, 23 October 2017.
114. Daily Nation, “Nasa Faults Observers for Giving Polls Clean Bill of Health.” 14 August 2017. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Nasa-faults-election-observers/1064-4056296-66383lz/index.html
115. Interview, NCIC field officer 2, western Kenya, 19 October 2017.
116. Interview, ELOG constituency observer 2, Rift Valley, 17 October 2017.
117. Interview, Barnabas Bii, journalist, Nation Media Group, Eldoret bureau, Eldoret, 16 October 2017.
118. Africa Confidential, “No Open-and-Shut Case”. 58, no. 20, 6–7. 6 October 2017. https://www.africa-confidential.com/article-preview/id/12124/No_open-and-shut_case
119. Pippa Norris. “Some Elements Are True … ”, comment on Nic Cheeseman, Todd Moss and Jeffrey Smith. “It’s time for international election monitors to start doing their job.” Washington Post, 15 November 2017. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/democracy-post/wp/2017/11/15/its-time-for-international-election-monitors-to-start-doing-their-job/?utm_term=.05cbfcfa9b58#comments
120. NTV, “Interview with Marietje Schaake.”
121. Cheeseman, Lynch and Willis, “Digital Dilemmas”, 12.
122. Ibid., 15.
123. Verjee, “After Kenya’s August Elections.”
124. Ruthrauff, “EU Election Observers.”
125. Jerving, “Did International Monitors.”
126. Verjee, “After Kenya’s August Elections.”
127. Bush and Prather, “Who’s There.”