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ABSTRACT
The Amhara Region protests originated in Gondar in 2016 and swiftly spread. The study addresses the questions of how mass mobilization occurred in Amhara, the dynamics, diffusion, and contribution of the protests to national political reforms. Using the political process model, the study identified several local and external factors that provided opportunities for mobilization. Researchers conducted in-depth interviews with activists, government officials, residents of North Gondar, and scholars. The study finds the bitter relationship between Amhara elites and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the presence of opposition political party structures in the region, divisions in the ruling coalition, the diaspora community, and protests in Oromia to be the major factors that promoted the Amhara protests. Furthermore, the research found out that social capital and social media sites played influential roles in spreading anti-government protests across the region. The study contends that Amharas contributed toward national political reforms through spreading the protests to a wide geographical area and throughout the social and political environment, which compromised the government’s ability to repress decisively.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Bratton and van de Walle, “Democratic Experiments in Africa”; Branch and Mampilly, Africa Uprising.
2 Interview with Getu Muche, 17 March 2019, Gondar. See also William Davison, “Ethnic Tensions in Gondar reflect the toxic Nature of Ethiopian Politics.” The Guardian, 22 December 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/dec/22/gondar-ethiopia-ethnic-tensions-toxic-politics
3 Tompson Makahamadze was a visiting professor at Gondar University, and taught Political Sociology in 2019.
4 Getu Muche was a key protest activist in North Gondar and a member of a militia that launched guerrilla attacks against government forces in the area.
5 Interviews with activists, Mesafint Mizgebu and Natan, 18 March 2019, Gondar. See also Margaux and Clionadh. “Data Analysis.”
6 Schock, Unarmed Insurrections, 27.
7 McAdam, Tarrow and Tilly, Dynamics of Contention, 41.
8 Franz and Kendall-Taylor, “A dictator’s toolkit, understanding how co-optation affects repression in autocracies,”
9 Ibid, 334.
10 Svolik, “Power Sharing and Leadership Dynamics in Authoritarian Regimes.”
11 O’Donnell, Guillermo and Schmitter C. Philippe, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies, 19.
12 Stephan, Lakhani and Naviwala, “Aid to Civil Society. A Movement Mindset,” 4.
13 Schock, Unarmed Insurrections, 33–34.
14 McAdam, Tarrow and Tilly, Dynamics of Contention.
15 Ibid, 41.
16 McAdam, Tarrow and Tilly, Dynamics of Contention; See also Tarrow, Power in Movement.
17 Schock, Unarmed Insurrections.
18 Beinin and Vairel, Social Movements,Mobilization and Contestation, 9
19 Interviews with residents of Gondar and activists, 25 April 2019, Gondar.
20 McAdam, Tarrow and Tilly, Dynamics of Contention; Tarrow, Power in Movement..
21 Beinin and Vairel, Social Movements, Mobilization and Contestation.
22 Selbin, Revolution, Rebellion, Resistance; Schock, Unarmed Insurrections.
23 Beinin and Vairel, Social Movements,Mobilization and Contestation, 14.
24 Lyons, The puzzle of Ethiopian Politics; Taye, “Ethnic Federalism and Conflict in Ethiopia.”
25 K. Yibeltal, “Ethiopia: Ethnic Nationalism and the Gondar protests”, Al-Jazeera, 11 January 2017. https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/01/ethiopia-ethnic-nationalism-gondar-protests-170102081805528.html; E. Gebissa, “In-depth analysis: Managing Political Transition in Ethiopia: the Choice Factor”, Addis Standard, 17 October 2018. http://addisstandard.com/in-depth-analysis-managing-political-transition-in-ethiopia-the-choice-factor/; Aalen and Muriaas, Manipulating political decentralisation.
26 Woyane is a Tigrigna term that refers to the rebellion that occurred in Tigray during Haile Selassie’s reign. Protesters used the term in connection with the TPLF.
27 Interviews with Mesafint and Getu Muche, March 17 2019, Gondar.
28 Aalen and Muriaas, Manipulating political decentralization.
29 Ibid. See also Plaut, “The legacy of Meles Zenawi”; Abbink,” Ethnic-based federalism and ethnicity in Ethiopia.”
30 See Abbink, “Ethiopia’s unrest sparked by unequal development record.”
31 Birru, “Ethnic Federalism Implementation in Ethiopia.”
32 Interview with a resident of North Gondar, 25 June 2019.
33 Interview with Solomon Dawed Arragie, a lecturer at the University of Gondar, 10 April 2019, Gondar.
34 Berhe, “The Origins of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.” Young, Peasant Revolution in Ethiopia.
35 Young, Peasant Revolution in Ethiopia.
36 Milkias, “Ethiopia, the TPLF, and the roots of the 2001 Political Tremor”; Taye, “Ethnic Federalism and Conflict in Ethiopia.”; McCracken “Abusing self-determination and democracy: How the TPLF is looting Ethiopia.”
37 Ibid.
38 For the establishment of ethnic federalism in Ethiopia, see Taye, “Ethnic Federalism and Conflict in Ethiopia”; Abbink, “Ethnic-based federalism and ethnicity in Ethiopia.”
39 Addis Standard. “Exclusive Interview: After Deadly Protests in Gondar what should the Government do next?” July 2016. http://addisstandard.com/exclusive-interview-deadly-protests-gondar-government-next/
40 Ibid.
41 Interviews with activists, 12 April 2019, Gondar.
42 Interview with Solomon, 25 April 2019, Gondar.
43 Interview with Alemayehu, 30 April 2019, Gondar.
44 Telephone interview with an activist who lived in Wolkayit, 15 June 2019.
45 Davison, Op. Cit.
46 Interviews with Yabsira Eshetie, a Regional Government official who worked in the mayor’s office, Hanna Muleya, a resident of Gondar and Getu Muche, 26 April 2019, Gondar.
47 Ibid.
48 Interview with Getu Muche, 17 March 2019, Gondar.
49 Interview with Mesafint Mezgebu, 26 April 2019, Gondar.
50 Setegn Babel was a man renowned for mediating between the government and bandits in some parts of Ethiopia. His death on 12 July 2016 aroused mass grief that inspired many to engage in massive protests.
51 Interviews with residents of Gondar and activists, 30 April 2019, Gondar. See also, Davison, Op. Cit.
52 Addis Standard, Op. Cit.
53 Interviews with Mesfint Mezgebu and Getu Muche, 26 April 2019, Gondar.
54 Timket is a popular religious ceremony that brings together thousands of Orthodox Christians and tourists to celebrate the baptism of Jesus Christ.
55 Interview with Natan, 18 April 2019, Gondar.
56 Interview with Getu Muche, 26 April 2019, Gondar.
57 Tesfa News, “Dutch, Israeli Farms in Ethiopia Attacked by Protesters”, September 2016. https://www.tesfanews.net/protesters-dutch-israeli-farms-ethiopia-attacked/
58 Interviews with residents of Gondar, 5 May 2019, Gondar.
59 Schock, Unarmed Insurrections.
60 Pinaud and Raleigh, “Data Analysis.”
61 ACLED, “Ethiopia-September 2016 Update”.
62 Tesfa News, “Ethiopia: Rebels Intensify Attacks, PM Threatens Eritrea”, 2015. https://www.tesfanews.net/rebels-intensify-attacks-ethiopia-warns-eritrea/
63 Ibid
64 Diaspora-based media outlets, associated with opposition politics and Amhara (ESAT) and Oromo (OMN) nationalism.
65 Pinaud and Raleigh, “Data Analysis”; Yibeltal, Op. Cit. S. Solomon, “Ethiopia Using Emergency Law to Quash Protest Movement”, Voice of America, October 2016. https://www.voanews.com/africa/ethiopia-using-emergency-law-quash-protest-movement
66 Kurtz and Smithey, The Paradox of Repression and Nonviolent Movements.
67 Interview with a graduate student, Mekonen Sisay, 5 June 2019, Gondar.
68 Interview with Biniam Adane, lecturer at the University of Gondar, 26 April 2019, Gondar.
69 Joireman and Szayna, “The Ethiopian Prospective Case,” Lyons, The Paradox of Ethiopian Politics., Young, Peasant Revolution in Ethiopia.
70 Joireman and Szayna, “The Ethiopian Prospective Case”, 208.
71 Joireman, “Opposition Politics and Ethnicity in Ethiopia.”
72 Joireman and Szayna, “The Ethiopian Perspective.”
73 Telephone interview with a lecturer at Woldiya University, 12 April 2019; Interviews with graduate students, Ephrem Yilak and Solomon Dawud, 10 April 2019.
74 Lyons, “Ethiopian Elections: Past & Future.”
75 Arriola and Lyons, “The 100% Election.”
76 Lyons, “Ethiopian Elections.” Arriola, “Ethnicity, Economic Conditions and Opposition Support.”
77 Arriola, “Ethnicity, Economic Conditions and Opposition Support.”
78 Interview with Mesafint Mezgebu, 26 April 2019, Gondar.
79 Interview with Hanna Muleya, 18 March 2019, Gondar.
80 Interview with Getu Muche, 17 March 2019, Gondar. For the explanation of this adage, see also Ganor, “Defining Terrorism”.
81 Interviews with activists, 29 April 2019, Gondar.
82 Interview with the retired army general, 15 May 2019, Gondar.
83 Muche, Aba Jawi Gobe and Aba Difen Mesafint.
84 Interviews with Mesafint Mezgebu and Emmanual Yoannes, 26 April 2019, Gondar.
85 Aaron Maasho, “At least 90 Protesters killed in Ethiopia: Residents, Opposition,” Reuters, August 2016. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-violence/at-least-90-protesters-killed-in-ethiopia-residents-opposition-idUSKCN10J0Z8
86 For more information about the activities of the guerrilla groups in Amhara during this time, see The New Humanitarian. “Ethiopia extends Emergency as old antagonisms fester”, April 2017 https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2017/04/03/ethiopia-extends-emergency-old-antagonisms-fester.
87 Interviews with the retired army general and Yabsira Eshetie, 15 May 2019, Gondar.
88 Interviews with Getu Muche and Mesafint Mezgebu 26 February 2019, Gondar; see also Addis Fortune, “Disarmament Key to a Peaceful Society,” August 2016. https://addisfortune.net/columns/disarmament-key-to-a-peaceful-society/
89 Alpers and Marcus, “Ethiopia — Gun Facts, Figures and the Law.”
90 Addis Fortune. Op. Cit.
91 Tigray Online, “Ethiopian Federal police seize weapons smuggled from Sudan,” October 2013. http://www.tigraionline.com/articles/article121027.html. See also, Sudan Tribune, “Ethiopia blames Sudan for failing to prevent Border Arms smuggling,” February 2019. https://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article67015.
92 Milkias, “Ethiopia.” Fisher, East Africa after Liberation.
93 Ibid.
94 Milkias, “Ethiopia,” 28
95 Ibid.
96 Plaut, “The legacy of Meles.”
97 Ibid.
98 B. N. Menberework, “Opinion: ANDM and OPDO turned against their Master but both follow Diverging paths. Here is how.” Addis Standard. April 2018. http://addisstandard.com/opinion-andm-and-opdo-turned-against-their-master-but-both-follow-diverging-paths-here-is-how/
99 T. Gardner, “Ethiopia’s Revolution at the top,” The Africa Report. February 2018. http://www.theafricareport.com/East-Horn-Africa/ethiopias-revolution-at-the-top.html
100 G. Mills, “Ethiopia’s Need for ‘Deep Renewal’,” The Daily Maverick, August 2018. https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-08-14-ethiopias-need-for-deep-renewal/
101 T. Gardner, “Ethiopia’s leadership race: the Oromo leader at the front,” The Africa Report, February 2018. https://www.theafricareport.com/709/ethiopias-leadership-race-the-oromo-leader-at-the-front/.
102 Mebratu, “Protest, Repression and Revolution in Ethiopia.” See also, Menberework, Op. Cit.
103 Branch and Mamphily, Africa Uprising. See also Human Rights Watch, “Such a Brutal Crackdown”.
104 Abbink, “Religious freedom and the political order”; For more information regarding mass protests in Ethiopia, see also Branch and Mampilly, Africa Uprising.
105 Interviews with activists, 26 April 2019, Gondar.
106 Human Right Watch, “Such a Brutal Crackdown.”
107 Ibid.
108 Interview with Mesfint Mesgebu, 20 March 2019, Gondar; see also Allo, “The Blood flowing in Oromia is our blood too”.
109 Africa News, “Tens of thousands of protesters call for a regime change in Ethiopia,” July 2016. https://www.africanews.com/2016/07/31/half-a-million-protesters-call-for-a-regime-change-in-ethiopia/
110 J. Jeffrey, “Why is the Ethiopia Diaspora so Influential?” BBC, November 2016. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38076389
111 J. Jeffrey, “Social media users in America are stoking Ethiopia's ethnic violence,” Global Post, 22 February 2018. https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-02-22/social-media-america-are-stoking-ethiopias-ethnic-violence.
112 Ibid.
113 Interview with Hanna Muleya, 18 March 2019, Gondar.
114 Interviews with residents of Gondar, 12 March 2019, Gondar.
115 H. Res. 128 Bill was introduced and sponsored by Representative Christopher H. Smith and signed into law in 2017.
116 Muluken attended a zonal meeting organized by diaspora activists on 18 March 2018, Gondar.
117 Andrews and Biggs, “The Dynamics of Protest Diffusion.”
118 Interviews with Getu Muchi and Mesafint Mezgebu, 26 April 2019, Gondar.
119 Ibid.
120 Interviews with residents of Gondar and activists, 25 March 2019, Gondar.
121 Tarrow, Power in Movement, 30.
122 Interviews with residents of Gondar, 25 April 2019, Gondar.
123 Ibid.
124 Ibid.
125 Interview with an imam, 30 April 2019, Gondar.
126 Interview with an Orthodox priest, 30 April 2019, Gondar.
127 McAdam, Tarrow and Tilly, Dynamics.’
128 Interview with Mesafint Mezgebu, 26 April 2019, Gondar.
129 Ruyter, “Ethiopian students protest.”
130 Lyons, “Ethiopian Elections.”
131 Interviews with lecturers Menber Enyew and Biniam Adane, March 2019, Gondar.
132 Interviews with activists, 10 May 2019, Gondar; see also, Pinaud and Raleigh, “Data Analysis.”
133 Ibid.
134 Tadias Magazine, “Peaceful Protests to armed Uprising - OpEd,” 20 February 2017. http://www.tadias.com/02/20/2017/ethiopia-peaceful-protest-to-armed-uprising-oped/. Interviews with Getu Muchi and the retired army general, 26 April 2019, Gondar.
135 Ackerman and Krueger. Strategic Nonviolent Conflict, 37.