‘Tribal balancing’: exclusionary elite coalitions and Zambia’s 2021 elections

ABSTRACT

Presidents have access to a range of resources unavailable to challengers, and often the most important are derived from control of the state. This allows incumbents to build more inclusive elite coalitions, distribute clientelist resources to their political base and co-opt opposition politicians. Cabinet and government appointments are some of the most visible, direct and identifiable indications of elite accommodation, and African presidents are more likely to build inclusive coalitions to ensure their survival. In Zambia, balanced regional representation – popularly known as “tribal balancing” – has held an important place in the public imagination. But between 2015 and 2021, rather than using incumbent advantage to build an ethnically inclusive alliance, President Lungu used cabinet appointments and senior government positions to shore up his base. This was bolstered by an exclusionary campaign that focused on the opposition leader’s ethnicity to push the PF’s base to vote against the opposition. This article uses an analysis of cabinet appointments and coverage of the election campaign to illustrate how Lungu sought to build an exclusionary coalition and exacerbate ethnic cleavages. This contributes to debates on when and why elites might use exclusionary strategies, and when they might fail to produce the desired outcome.

KEYWORDS:

• Ethnicity
• Incumbent advantage
• Cabinet appointments
• Zambia
• Voting
• Campaigns
• Elite coalitions
• Ethnic power-sharing

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Institute of Advanced Studies (IAS) at the University of Warwick and the British Institute in Eastern Africa (BIEA) who funded the Zambia Elections Research Network (ZERN) and the research on which this article is based. We’re very grateful to the members of the ZERN network and Marja Hinfelaar for their feedback on early versions of this paper, as well as to two anonymous reviewers whose feedback was instrumental in the improvement of the argument.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Schedler, “Elections without Democracy”, 36–50; Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism.

2 Bratton and van de Walle, Democratic Experiments in Africa; Bleck and van de Walle, Electoral Politics in Africa since 1990; Prempeh, “Progress and Retreat in Africa”.

3 Bleck and van de Walle, Electoral Politics in Africa since 1990, 81.

4 Arriola, Multi-Ethnic Coalitions in Africa, 1339–1362; van de Walle, “Tipping Games”.

5 Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict; Bratton and van de Walle, Democratic Experiments in Africa; Posner, Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa.

6 Roessler, “The Enemy Within”; Arriola, Multi-Ethnic Coalitions in Africa; Berman, “Ethnicity, Patronage and the African State”; Bratton and Van de Walle, “Neopatrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa”; Chabal and Daloz, Africa Works.

7 Francois, Rainer, and Trebbi, “How Is Power Shared in Africa?”; Raleigh and Wigmore-Shepherd, “Elite Coalitions and Power Balance”.

8 Arriola, “Patronage and Political Stability in Africa”.

9 Gandhi and Buckles, “Opposition Unity and Cooptation in Hybrid Regimes”.

10 Raleigh and Wigmore-Shepherd, “Elite Coalitions and Power Balance,” 2.

11 Ibid, 22.

12 Arriola, “Patronage and Political Stability in Africa”, 1345.

13 Bratton and Van de Walle, “Neopatrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa”.

14 Arriola and Johnson, “Ethnic Politics and Women’s Empowerment in Africa”.

15 Raleigh and Wigmore-Shepherd, “Elite Coalitions and Power Balance”.

16 Mesquita et al., The Logic of Political Survival.

17 Zolberg, One-Party Government in the Ivory Coast, 289.

18 Van de Walle, African Economies; Arriola, “Patronage and Political Stability in Africa”; Raleigh and Wigmore-Shepherd, “Elite Coalitions and Power Balance.”

19 Arriola, “Patronage and Political Stability in Africa,” 1346.

20 Lindemann, “Inclusive Elite Bargains.”

21 Dresang, The Zambia Civil Service, 60.

22 Posner, Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa.

23 Scarritt, “The Strategic Choice of Multiethnic Parties”.

24 Lindemann, “Inclusive Elite Bargains”.

25 Posner, “Measuring Ethnic Fractionalization in Africa”.

26 Posner, Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa; Posner, “The Colonial Origins of Ethnic Cleavages”.

27 Posner, “The Colonial Origins of Ethnic Cleavages”, 140–141.

28 Lindemann, “Inclusive Elite Bargains.”

29 Posner, Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa, 58.

30 Sishuwa, “Roots of Contemporary Political Strategies”; Larmer, “A Little Bit Like a Volcano”; Sishuwa, “A White Man Will Never Be a Zambian”.

31 Larmer, “A Little Bit Like a Volcano.”

32 Ibid, 57.

33 Sishuwa, “‘I Am Zambia’s Redeemer’”

34 Cheeseman and Larmer, “Ethnopopulism in Africa”; Cheeseman and Hinfelaar, “Parties, Platforms, and Political Mobilization”; Larmer and Fraser, “Of Cabbages and King Cobra”; Resnick, “Opposition Parties and the Urban Poor”; Gadjanova, “Ethnic Wedge Issues”.

35 Beardsworth, “From a ‘Regional Party’”; Scarritt, “The Strategic Choice of Multiethnic Parties”.

36 Kapesa, Sichone, and Bwalya, “Ethnic Mobilization”, 234.

37 For this history, see Beardsworth, “From a ‘Regional Party’”.

38 Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict.

39 For the persistence of these blocs and an alternate explanation, see Boone et al., “Regional Cleavages in African Politics”.

40 Beardsworth, “Opposition Coalitions”.

41 Beardsworth, “From a ‘Regional Party’”.

42 LeBas, “Polarization as Craft”.

43 Goldring and Wahman, “Democracy in Reverse”, 116.

44 This number includes a significant subset of urban voters, who are much more fluid in their political allegiances and more likely to be intermarried or have parents with mixed heritage.

45 “Zambia Eagle Facebook Post,” 10 April 2020. https://web.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=844596709349866&id=371235326686009&comment_id=844868542656016&_rdc=1&_rdr.; Mirriam Chabala. “President Retires Civil Servants in National Interest as Punishment – Sinkamba”. News Diggers!, 13 February 2018. https://diggers.news/local/2018/02/13/president-retires-civil-servants-in-national-interest-as-punishment-sinkamba/; Habasonda, “Corruption, Ethnicity and Violence”.

46 “Statement by Her Honour the Vice President – On a Question Asked by Hon. Jack Mwiimbu”.

47 Some 14% hailed from Northern Province, 8% from Eastern Province, 5% from Lusaka and 3% from Central Province. No civil servants from Muchinga or Luapula were reportedly removed.

48 Interestingly as the authors note, the vast majority of Lozi speakers felt under-represented despite the fact that the Vice President, Justice Minister and Attorney General positions in both the 2015 and 2016 cabinets were occupied by Lozis. Kapesa, Sichone, and Bwalya, “Ethnic Mobilization”, 234–235; Similar reports were heard by the CIPEV committee. “Report of the Commission of Inquiry into Voting Patterns and Electoral Violence”, XV.

49 “Report of the Commission of Inquiry into Voting Patterns and Electoral Violence”, 45.

50 European Union Election Observation Mission to Zambia, “EU EOM Zambia 2021 Final Report”, 23.

51 In fact two of the ten were from the South, but had married northerners and adopted their husbands’ surnames. Kalumba Chisambisha-Slavin, “Swearing-in of Hon. Judges of the High Court,” Judiciary of Zambia (blog), 14 July 2021. https://judiciaryzambia.com/2021/07/14/swearing-in-of-hon-judges-of-the-high-court/.

52 Lusaka Times, “Zambia: President Lungu Fires Zambia Army Commander and His Deputy,” 31 December 2018, https://www.lusakatimes.com/2018/12/31/president-lungu-fires-zambia-army-commander-and-his-deputy/.

53 Habasonda, “Corruption, Ethnicity and Violence”, 18.

54 The Zambian Observer (blog), “Speech By President Lungu On The Commemoration Of The 45th Zambia Defence Force Day,” 13 June 2021. https://www.zambianobserver.com/speech-by-president-lungu-on-the-commemoration-of-the-45th-zambia-defence-force-day/.

55 Lindemann, “Inclusive Elite Bargains.”

56 Larmer, “"A Little Bit Like A Volcano”.

57 Andrew Sardanis, quoted in Resnick, “How Zambia’s Opposition Won”, 75.

58 Lindemann, “Inclusive Elite Bargains”, 1845.

59 Kapesa, Sichone, and Bwalya, “Ethnic Mobilization.”

60 “Report of the Commission of Inquiry into Voting Patterns and Electoral Violence”, 46.

61 Ibid, 47.

62 Beardsworth, “From a ‘Regional Party’”.

63 Funga, Mukosha. “HH Will Never Be President Because He Is a Tribalist Leading a Cult – Lungu”. News Diggers!, 16 December 2019. https://diggers.news/local/2019/12/16/hh-will-never-be-president-because-he-is-a-tribalist-leading-a-cult-lungu/.

64 For the history of this, see Beardsworth, “From a ‘Regional Party’”.

65 Sishuwa Sishuwa, “Zambia : One Zambia, Two Nations! The Disturbing Ill-Treatment of Tongas in Lungu’s Zambia”. Lusaka Times, 5 July 2018. https://www.lusakatimes.com/2018/07/05/one-zambia-two-nations-the-disturbing-ill-treatment-of-tongas-in-lungus-zambia/.

66 Sipilisiwe Ncube. “Namugala Censures Kafwaya for Calling UPND a Tribal Party”. News Diggers!, 1 April 2019. https://diggers.news/local/2019/04/01/namugala-censures-kafwaya-for-calling-upnd-a-tribal-party/.

67 Lusaka Times, “Zambia: Davies Chama Laughs off Reports of His Dismissal as Inonge Wina Apologises to Tongas,” 31 July 2015, https://www.lusakatimes.com/2015/07/31/davies-chama-laughs-off-reports-of-his-dismissal-as-inonge-wina-apologises-to-tongas/.

68 Lusaka Times, “Zambia: Government to Issue a Comprehensive Statement on Davies Chama’s Remarks against the Tonga People,” 22 June 2015, https://www.lusakatimes.com/2015/06/22/government-to-issue-a-comprehensive-statement-on-davies-chamas-remarks-against-the-tonga-people/.

69 “Report of the Commission of Inquiry into Voting Patterns and Electoral Violence”, 38.

70 Ibid, 38–39; Chilala and Kapau, “The Theatre of Jokers”.

71 This is a common stereotype of Tonga people, who are more likely than northerners and easterners to keep cattle. “Report of the Commission of Inquiry into Voting Patterns and Electoral Violence”, 39.

72 The Zambian Observer (blog), “VIDEO: Nkandu Luo Joins Tribal Hatred against Tongas”, 6 February 2020. https://zambianobserver.com/video-nkandu-luo-joins-tribal-hatred-against-tongas/.

73 Zyuulu, “More Stakeholders Rebuke Bizwell Mutale Over Tribal Remarks Against Tongas” The Zambian Observer (blog), 7 February 2020. https://zambianobserver.com/more-stakeholders-rebuke-bizwell-mutale-over-tribal-remarks-against-tongas/; Natasha Sakala. “Luo, Mutale’s Tribal Remarks Don’t Represent PF, Says Chanda,” News Diggers!, 9 February 2020, https://diggers.news/local/2020/02/09/luo-mutales-tribal-remarks-dont-represent-pf-says-chanda/.

74 Ulande Nkomesha, “HRC Demands Public Reprimand of Tribal PF Members,” News Diggers!, 11 February 2020. https://diggers.news/local/2020/02/11/hrc-demands-public-reprimand-of-tribal-pf-members/.

75 The Zambian Observer (blog), “It’s Wako Ni Wako in 2021!” 30 October 2020. https://zambianobserver.com/its-wako-ni-wako-in-2021/

76 Ibid.

77 Banda, “Tongas Have Risen against Us Easterners to Take Our Presidency, We Must Fight – Dora,” News Diggers!, 28 October 2020. https://diggers.news/local/2020/10/28/tongas-have-risen-against-us-easterners-to-take-our-presidency-we-must-fight-dora/.

78 Luo was particularly unpopular with students in Zambia, as she had eliminated University meal allowances and set police on protesting students during her tenure as Minister of Higher Education. Resnick, “How Zambia’s Opposition Won”.

79 Julia Malunga. “If You Don’t Vote Accordingly, I’ll Come and Whip You, Luo Tells Easterners”. News Diggers!, 31 May 2021. https://diggers.news/local/2021/05/31/if-you-dont-vote-accordingly-ill-come-and-whip-you-luo-tells-easterners/.

80 European Union Election Observation Mission to Zambia, “EU EOM Zambia 2021 Final Report”, 23.

81 Facebook Live Video: Hon Kambwili Conducting Door to Door Campaigns in Kasama District, 2021. https://web.facebook.com/watch/live/?ref=watch_permalink&v=568408654508138.

82 European Union Election Observation Mission to Zambia, “EU EOM Zambia 2021 Final Report”, 35.

83 Beardsworth, Kaaba, and Cheeseman. “Ahead of Zambia’s Elections, Fears Rise of a Political Crisis”. World Politics Review (blog), 10 August 2021. https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/29872/ahead-of-zambia-elections-fears-rise-of-a-political-crisis.

84 Seekings, “Incumbent disadvantage”.

85 Mulenga, “Only Bembas, Easterners Will Rule If Regional Politics Continue – Mumbi,” News Diggers!, 8 August 2018. https://diggers.news/local/2018/08/08/only-bembas-easterners-will-rule-if-regional-politics-continue-mumbi/.