Loss of suitable climatic areas for Araucaria forests over time

ABSTRACT

Background: Araucaria forests are mountain ecosystems that might have expanded in the late Holocene, however past distributions remain uncertain. If current distribution reflects climatic conditions, past and future distributions may be projected using climate models.

Aims: To contribute to the understanding of past and future distribution of Araucaria forests as a function of climate, we hypothesised that (1) they have increased their geographic distribution since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) until the present; and (2) would contract under predicted future climates.

Methods: We modelled the spatial distributions of Araucaria forests under current, past and future climatic scenarios. Ecological niche models of 12 indicator species were developed using ensemble modelling.

Results: The greatest extent of distribution of Araucaria forests appeared to have occurred during the LGM, after which a continuous retraction followed until the present. Our models suggested that Araucaria forests would experience an even greater retraction in the future.

Conclusion: Araucaria forests could have covered larger areas during the LGM than suggested by earlier palynological studies, because climate was suitable for their distribution. The degree of loss of modelled distribution area since the LGM until today indicate these forests are likely to continue to shrink under projected future climatic changes.

KEYWORDS:

• Atlantic Forest domain
• climatic fluctuations
• ecological niche models
• global warming
• indicator species

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Ary Teixeira de Oliveira Filho for providing the data for indicator species.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Supplementary material

The supplementary material for this article can be accessed here.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Fundação Grupo Boticário de Proteção à Natureza [Grant No. PROG_0008_2013]; Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos [Grant No. 01.13.0353.00]; Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior [Grant No. 1561948, 1562642]; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo [Grant No. 2014/22344-6]; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico [Grant No. 140764-2013-5, 307719/2012-0, 308532/2014-7, 407094/2013-0, 437167/2016-0, 479959/2013-7, 563621/2010-9].

Notes on contributors

Rodrigo S. Bergamin

Rodrigo S. Bergamin is a research fellow, interested in climate change impacts on the distribution and performance of tree species in the Atlantic Forest.

Vanderlei Debastiani

Vanderlei Debastiani is a research fellow whose research focuses on phylogenetic and evolutionary ecology with emphasis in ecological and evolutionary data analysis and simulation.

Daiany C. Joner

Daiany C. Joner is a Ph.D. student, interested in population and community ecology, biodiversity and conservation.

Priscila Lemes

Priscila Lemes is a research fellow, working on topics of theoretical and applied ecology, with emphasis on conservation biogeography, systematic planning for conservation and ecological niche modelling.

Taís Guimarães

Taís Guimarães is a Ph.D. student. Her main interest is in landscape ecology and spatial analysis of hydrographic basins.

Rafael D. Loyola

Rafael D. Loyola is a professor, director of the Laboratory of Conservation Biogeography that provides scientific support to environmental decision-making in Brazil.

Sandra C. Müller

Sandra C. Müller is a professor. Her main interest is in community ecology, with focus on patterns and processes associated with the dynamics of disturbances and succession, species and functional diversity.