A micro-model of car ownership dynamics: are preferences changing?

ABSTRACT

The objective of this paper is to examine whether and, if so, to what degree car ownership preferences of different age cohorts are changing over time. This question is examined by estimating a joint discrete choice model for car ownership at the household level. To identify change with respect to period, age, and generation, while also controlling for a variety of confounding factors, a model with time-varying coefficients is formulated. The model is applied to multiple cross-sectional data collected in Denmark from 2007 to 2017. Results reveal a significant reduction in car ownership for young age cohorts (18–37 years) and an increase in the likelihood to own two or more cars for age cohorts between 58 and 67 years. The implications of these findings are exemplified and discussed by estimating different parametric functions to capture the evolution of preferences over time.

KEYWORDS:

• Car ownership
• dynamic behavior
• cohort effects
• generational shift
• preference change
• cross-sectional data

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. Center for Transport Analytics. https://www.cta.man.dtu.dk/english/national-travel-survey.

2. The cities of Copenhagen, Aarhus, Aalborg, and Odense. Source: Statistics Denmark StatBank.dk/by2.

3. Calculation derived from: Statistics Denmark StatBank.dk/bil8 and StatBank.dk/vej23.

4. Source: Statistics Denmark StatBank.dk/bil8.