Iran’s Demographic Transition and Its Potential for Development

Abstract:

Over the past half-century, Iran has experienced unprecedented demographic transition. With a population over 85 million, Iran’s population growth recently has declined below one per cent per year, compared with nearly four per cent in the 1980s. This phenomenal decline is the result of social developments along with the re-introduction of a family planning program, which progressively brought the total fertility rate (TFR) down to below-replacement level since 2000. That is, from around seven children per woman in the mid-1980s–and despite the reversal of population policies toward pronatalist since 2010–the total fertility rate had decreased to 1.7 children per woman in 2021, partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic shocks. Life expectancy at birth has tripled in the last century (1920-2020) from 25 to 75 years. There have been important changes in the age structure of Iran’s population, with the under-15 population decreasing from 40 per cent in 1996 to 20 per cent in 2021. In contrast, the working-age population (ages 15 to 64) has increased substantially to over 70%, indicating that Iran has entered a ‘demographic window of opportunity’. Accompanied by rising levels of educational attainment among both men and women, this demographic window has the potential to create socio-economic opportunities for Iran over the next three decades, provided that adequate economic conditions, public policies and youth employment are prepared.

Key Words:

• age structure transition
• demographic window
• economic development
• economic policies
• Iran

Acknowledgment

The authors gratefully acknowledge valuable comments and editing by Prof. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 Julian Bharier (1968) A Note on the Population of Iran: 1900–1966, Journal of Population Studies, 22 (2), pp. 273–279.

2 Mahdi Amani (1996) A Historical Outlook at the Trends in Birth and Death Rates and the Identification of the Stages of Demographic Transition in Iran, Journal of Population, 13–14, p. 73.

3 Statistical Center of Iran (1986–2016) Results of the National Census of Population and Housing 1986, 1996, 2006, 2011, and 2016 (Tehran: Statistical Center of Iran).

4 Rasoul Sadeghi, Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, and Saeedeh Shahbazin (2020) Internal Migration in Iran, in: M. Bell, A. Bernard, E. Charles-Edwards & Y. Zhu (eds), Internal Migration in the Countries of Asia (New York: Springer International Publishing), pp. 295–317.

5 Hassan Saraie (1997) The First Phase of Demographic Transition in Iran, Journal of Social Sciences, 9–10, p. 61.

6 Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, ‎ Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi, Majid Koosheshi and Mohsen Naghavi (2005) Trends and Emerging Issues of Health and Mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran, In: United Nation (eds). Emerging Issues of Health in Mortality in the Asia and Pacific Region, p. 154.

7 Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi and Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi (2017) Recent Fertility Trends in Iran: Application of the own-children Method of Fertility Estimation to the 2016 census (Tehran: Statistics Centre of Iran), p. 26.

8 Farzaneh Roudi, Pooya Azadi and Mohsen Mesgaran (2017) Iran’s Population Dynamics and Demographic Window of Opportunity, Working Paper 4 (Stanford, CA: Stanford Iran 2040 Project, Stanford University), p. 3.

9 Bo Malmberg and Lena Sommestad (2000) Four Phases in the Demographic Transition, Paper presented at the SSHA Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, p. 5.

10 David Bloom, David Canning and Jaypee Sevilla (2003) The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change (Santa Monica, CA: Rand), pp. 1–103.

11 Natalie Jackson and Bruce Felmingham (2004) The Demographic Gift in Australia, in Agenda: A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, 11(1), pp. 21–37.

12 Naohiro Ogawa, Makoto Kondo and Rikiya Matsukura (2005) Japan's Transition from the Demographic Bonus to Demographic Onus, Asian Population Studies 1(2), pp. 207–226.

13 Mitra Siddhartha, and R. Nagarajan (2005) Making Use of the Window of Demographic Opportunity: An Economic Perspective, in Economic and Political Weekly, 40(50), pp. 5327–5332.

14 Wolfgang Lutz (2014) A Population Policy Rational for the 21st Century, Population and Development Review, 40(3), pp. 527–544.

15 Gary Becker (1962) Investment in Human Capital: A Theoretical Analysis, Journal of Political Economy, 70(2), pp. 9–49.

16 Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason (2011) Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective, (Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar), p. 5.

17 Ian Pool (2005) Age-Structural Transitions and Policy: Frameworks. In: S. Tuljapurkar, I. Pool & V. Prachuabmoh (eds) Population, Resources and Development (Dordrecht: Springer), pp. 13–39.

18 Roudi, Azadi, and Mesgaran “Iran’s Population Dynamics and Demographic Window of Opportunity,” p. 13.

19 United Nations (2004) Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2003 (New York: UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific).

20 Pool, “Age-Structural Transitions and Policy,” p. 13.

21 Bloom, Canning and Sevilla, “The Demographic Dividend,” p. 40.

22 David E. Bloom and Jeffrey G. Williamson (1998) Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia, World Bank Economic Review, 12 (3), pp. 419–455.

23 Norman Owen, ed. (2005) The Emergence of Modern Southeast Asia: A New History (Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press), pp. 399–413.

24 Gerald Scully (1988) The Institutional Framework and Economic Development, in Journal of Political Economy, 96(3), pp. 652–662.

25 Andrew Mason (2003) Population Change and Economic Development: What have We Learned from the East Asia Experience? In Applied Population and Policy 1(1), pp. 3–14.

26 Gemma Abio, Concepcio Patxot, Miguel Sánchez-Romero and Guadalupe Souto (2015) The Welfare State and the demographic dividend: A cross-country comparison, Working Paper No. 3/2015, Agenta project, p. 3.

27 Mayra Buvinic, Monica Das Gupta and Ursula Casarbonne (2009) Gender, Poverty and Demography: An Overview, The World Bank Economic Review, 23(3), pp. 347–369.

28 Nancy Birdsall and Steven W. Sinding (2001) How and Why Population Matters: New Findings, New Issues, In: N. C. Birdsall, A. C. Kelley & S. W. Sinding (eds.), Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World (Oxford: Oxford University Press), pp. 3–23.

29 Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Wolfgang Lutz and Warren Sanderson (2014) Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend? In: Demography, 51, pp. 299–315.

30 Bloom and Williamson, “Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia,” pp. 419–455.

31 Mason, “Population Change and Economic Development,” pp. 3–14.

32 Bloom, Canning, and Sevilla “The Demographic Dividend,” pp. 56–57.

33 Cuaresma, Lutz, and Sanderson, “Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?” p. 310.

34 Elisenda Rentería, Guadalupe Souto, Iván Mejía-Guevara, and Concepció Patxot (2016) The Effect of Education on the Demographic Dividend, Population and Development Review, 42(4), pp. 651–671.

35 Kua Wongboonsin, Philip Guest, and Vipan Prachuabmoh (2005) Demographic Change and the Demographic Dividend in Thailand, Asian Population Studies,1(2), pp. 245–256.

36 Roudi, Azadi and Mesgaran, “Iran’s Population Dynamics and Demographic Window of Opportunity, p. 4.