Verification analysis of relationship between driving failure probability and traffic accident rate

Abstract

To enable the reliability theory to be further applied in roadway geometry design and safety evaluation, it is necessary to explore and establish the relationship between the failure index in reliability theory and the traffic accident rate. Based on the collected data, the risk ranking-based verification method and regression prediction model-based verification method considering the probability of driving failure were used to verify the relationship between the probability of driving failure and traffic accident rate. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient was calculated and the results show that there is a moderate correlation between the driving failure probability of the selected road segment and the traffic accident rate. Four regression prediction models for both two-lane and four-lane roads were established considering the probability of driving failure and four significant variables including segment length, annual average daily traffic volume, speed limit, and curve radius. The results show that the established regression prediction models can fit accident data well. This research verified and established the relationship between the probability of driving failure and the road traffic accident rate and pointed out that the traffic accident rate has a positive correlation with the probability of driving failure.

Keywords:

• Reliability analysis
• failure probability
• traffic accident rate
• regression predictive model

Additional information

Funding

This research is sponsored by the Shanghai 2021 "Science and Technology Innovation Action Plan" Yangtze River Delta Science and Technology Innovation Community Program in China (Grant No. 21002410700) and the Jiangxi Department of Transportation in China (Grant No. 2020H0049).