Learning to live in China’s shadow

Abstract

A major shift in the paradigm undergirding relations between Australia and China has become clear in the early 2020s, with geopolitical concerns trumping economic considerations. Canberra has implemented a range of new policies in response to the risks it perceives in Australia’s economic relations with China, the Chinese Communist Party’s efforts to exert political influence in Australia, the expanding capabilities and presence of the People’s Liberation Army, and Beijing’s economic and diplomatic gains in Southeast Asia and the Southwest Pacific. China’s policies towards Australia have become more coercive in economic as well as diplomatic terms. However, Australia has withstood Beijing’s punitive trade measures without suffering significant economic damage. China’s more assertive regional posture has prompted far-reaching changes to Australia’s defence- and alliance-policy settings, including new capability acquisitions and strategic initiatives such as AUKUS. In this Adelphi book, Euan Graham argues that Australia has provided an imperfect but nevertheless useful exemplar of how governments may respond effectively to multifarious security challenges from China. In particular, the Australian case shows how measures to address domestic vulnerabilities may serve as the foundation for a successful China policy at the international level.

Notes

1 Stephen Dziedzic, ‘Australia and China Might Be on Speaking Terms, but on Policy and in Reality Remain Far Apart’, ABC News, 14 November 2022, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-15/australia-china-dialogue-between-xi-albanese-remains-fraught-g20/101652990.

2 Brendan Nicholson, ‘AUKUS Will Deliver the Potent Military Australia Needs: Marles’, ASPI Strategist, 16 September 2022, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/aukus-will-deliver-the-potent-military-australia-needs-marles/.

3 The defence posture review has since been upgraded to a Strategic Defence Review: Charbel Kadib, ‘Marles Eyes Early Subs Delivery, Backs New “Posture Review”’, Defence Connect, 20 June 2022, https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/key-enablers/10201-marles-eyes-early-subs-delivery-backs-new-posture-review. See also Australian Government, Department of Defence, ‘Defence Strategic Review’, https://www.defence.gov.au/about/reviews-inquiries/defence-strategic-review.

4 Hu Weijia, ‘Despite Different “Values,” Australia Should Ameliorate Ties with China’, Global Times, 21 September 2022, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275719.shtml.

5 ‘Commentary: Australia Should Make Independent, Sensible Choices on China Ties’, Xinhua, 26 November 2020, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-11/26/c_139545081.htm. See also Michael Shoebridge, ‘Diagnosing the Problem: It’s About China, and It’s More Than the US– China Show’, ASPI Strategist, 28 July 2020, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/diagnosing-the-problem-its-about-china-and-its-more-than-the-us-china-show/.

6 Rory Medcalf, ‘Arrest of Yang Hengjun Drags Australia into China’s Hostage Diplomacy’, Australian Financial Review, 25 January 2019, https://www.afr.com/opinion/arrest-of-yang-hengjun-drags-australia-into-chinas-hostage-diplomacy-20190124-h1af6x.

7 Anthony Galloway and Eryk Bagshaw, ‘Victoria’s Belt and Road Deal with China Torn Up’, Australian Financial Review, 22 April 2021, https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/victoria-s-belt-and-road-deal-with-china-torn-up-20210421-p57l9q.html.

8 Reuters, ‘Canada to Ban Huawei/ZTE 5G Equipment as China Tensions Ease’, Business Times, 20 May 2022, https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/technology/canada-to-ban-huaweizte-5g-equipment-as-china-tensions-ease.

9 ‘Speech Introducing the National Security Legislation Amendment (Espionage and Foreign Interference) Bill 2017’, speech delivered by Malcolm Turnbull, Australia’s prime minister, 7 December 2017, https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/speech-introducing-the-national-security-legislation-amendment-espionage-an.

10 Daniel Hurst, ‘Labor Denounces Peter Dutton’s “Conspiracy Theory” that China Wants Coalition to Lose Election’, Guardian, 5 May 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/05/peter-dutton-says-he-very-strongly-believes-chinese-communist-party-wants-coalition-to-lose-election.

11 See, for example, Gareth Evans, ‘Australia and China: Getting Out of the Hole’, Pearls and Irritations, 27 November 2020, https://johnmenadue.com/australia-and-china-getting-out-of-the-hole/.

12 Justin Bassi, ‘Xi–Albanese Meeting Shows Strength of Australia’s Resolve’, ASPI Strategist, 18 November 2022, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/xi-albanese-meeting-shows-strength-of-australias-resolve/.

13 Daniel Hurst and Josh Butler, ‘Richard Marles’s “Full and Frank” Meeting with China Ends Australia’s Diplomatic Freeze’, Guardian, 12 June 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/12/richard-marles-says-talks-with-china-possible-after-first-ministerial-contact-with-australia-in-two-years; and Phil Mercer, ‘Australia Vows to Continue to Monitor South China Sea After Military Close Encounter’, Voice of America, 14 June 2022, https://www.voanews.com/a/australia-vows-to-continue-to-monitor-south-china-sea-after-military-close-encounter/6617022.html.

14 ‘China as a Military Threat’, Lowy Institute Poll 2022, https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/charts/china-as-a-military-threat/.

15 Laura Silver, Kat Devlin and Christine Huang, ‘Unfavourable Views of China Reach Historic Highs in Many Countries’, Pew Research Centre, 6 October 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/10/06/unfavorable-views-of-china-reach-historic-highs-in-many-countries/.

16 Jessica Parker, ‘Lithuania–China Row: EU Escalates Trade Dispute with Beijing’, BBC News, 27 January 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60140561.

17 John Fitzgerald, ‘A View from Australia’, National Commentaries: ‘AUKUS, Australia, and China’, Asan Forum, 27 December 2021, https://theasanforum.org/a-view-from-australia-3/.

18 Denny Roy, ‘Xi Jinping’s Top Five Foreign Policy Mistakes’, Pacific Forum PacNet, no. 49, 22 October 2021, https://pacforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/PacNet49.2021.10.22.pdf.

19 Marcus Hellyer and Andrew Nicholls, ‘How to Bridge the Capability Gap in Australia’s Transition to Nuclear-powered Submarines’, ASPI Strategist, 21 July 2022, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/how-to-bridge-the-capability-gap-in-australias-transition-to-nuclear-powered-submarines/.

20 ‘China Biggest Security Threat, Says General Bipin Rawat’, Times of India, 13 November 2021, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/china-biggest-security-threat-says-general-bipin-rawat/articleshow/87675595.cms.

21 ‘Video: India and Australia Share Concerns About China’s Growing Military Power’, ABC News, 22 June 2022, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-23/china-and-australia-share-concerns-about-chinas/13942226.

22 Australian Government, Department of Defence, ‘2020 Defence Strategic Update’, 1 July 2020, pp. 25–7, https://www.defence.gov.au/strategicupdate-2020/.