Consistent America, inconstant America

Abstract

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’.

In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Notes

1 John Lewis Gaddis, The Long Peace: Inquiries Into the History of the Cold War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987).

2 Laura Alfaro and Davin Chor, ‘Global Supply Chains: The Looming “Great Reallocation”’, paper prepared for the Jackson Hole Symposium organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 30 August 2023, https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/9774/AlfaroChor_JacksonHole_30Aug2023.pdf.

3 Chris Miller, Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology (New York: Scribner, 2022).

4 Josh Rogin, Chaos under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the Twenty-first Century (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2021).

5 See also Bill Emmott, Rivals: How the Power Struggle between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade (London: Allen Lane, 2008).

6 Private remarks to an unnamed senator, reported by Josh Rogin in Chaos under Heaven, p. 44.

7 Lauly Li and Cheng Ting-Fang, ‘Pompeo Urges Washington to Recognize Taiwan as Sovereign Nation’, Nikkei Asia, 4 March 2022, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Pompeo-urges-Washington-to-recognize-Taiwan-as-sovereign-nation.

8 Josh Boak, Aamer Madhani and Zeke Miller, ‘Biden: US Would Intervene with Military to Defend Taiwan’, Associated Press, 23 May 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-taiwan-china-4fb0ad0567ed5bbe46c01dd758e6c62b.

9 Former president Donald Trump interviewed by Maria Bartiromo, Sunday Morning Futures, Fox News, 16 July 2023. This was also reported in Judy Lin and Bryan Chuang, ‘Trump Accuses Taiwan of Taking Away America’s Semiconductor Business’, DigiTimes Asia, 18 July 2023, https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230718PD207/ic-manufacturing-semiconductor-industry-us-taiwan-trade.html.

10 Office of the Historian, US Department of State, ‘Joint Statement Following Discussions with Leaders of the People’s Republic of China’, 27 February 1972, https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d203.

11 For the number of service members in South Korea, see Jim Garamone, US Department of Defense, ‘U.S., South Korea Want Peace in Indo-Pacific’, DOD News, 31 January 2023, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3282870/us-south-korea-want-peace-in-indo-pacific/#:~:text=There%20are%2028%2C500%20U.S.%20service,the%20Combined%20Forces%20Command%20—%20Korea.

12 For the debate, see, for example, Jean Mackenzie, ‘Nuclear Weapons: Why South Koreans Want the Bomb’, BBC News, 22 April 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65333139. For an overview of South Korea’s position, see Seukhoon Paul Choi, ‘As World Order Shifts, So Does South Korean Security Policy’, Arms Control Association, July/August 2023, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-07/features/world-order-shifts-does-south-korean-security-policy.

13 This is based on IISS calculations. A carrier strike group on its own could sail at 30 knots, but if support ships are needed the best assumption is 20 knots. The Japanese port of Sasebo is nearer to Taiwan than Yokosuka is, but Yokosuka is cited because it is the main port from which a large naval force would probably depart.

14 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, ‘United States–Japan Roadmap for Realignment Implementation’, 1 May 2006, https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/security/scc/doc0605.html.

15 Maricar Cinco, ‘2024 Transfer of Okinawa-based Marines to Guam on Course: U.S. Marines’, Kyodo News, 9 December 2022, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/12/d96faaa52e79-2024-transfer-of-okinawa-based-marines-to-guam-on-course-us-marines.html;andIISSassessments.

16 US Marine Corps, ‘Dynamic Force Employment’, 2 August 2021, https://www.marines.mil/News/News-Display/Article/2708002/.

17 Dzirhan Mahadzir, ‘New Marine Littoral Regiment Key to Expanded Pacific Security Cooperation, U.S., Japanese Leaders Say’, USNI News, 12 January 2023, https://news.usni.org/2023/01/12/new-marine-littoral-regiment-key-to-expanded-pacific-security-cooperation-u-s-japanese-leaders-say.

18 Ibid.

19 Joseph Ditzler, ‘“Bittersweet”: Air Force Begins Phased Withdrawal of F-15 Eagles from Okinawa’, Stars and Stripes, 2 December 2022, https://www.stripes.com/branches/air_force/2022-12-02/f15-eagles-phased-withdrawal-okinawa-8271510.html; and Matthew M. Burke and Keishi Koja, ‘F-22 Raptors Begin Rotating into Okinawa to Replace Kadena’s Aging F-15 Fleet’, Stars and Stripes, 4 November 2022, https://www.stripes.com/branches/air_force/2022-11-04/air-force-raptors-f-15-kadena-okinawa-7923586.html.

20 Seth Robson, ‘Air Force Moving Reaper Squadron in Japan South to Okinawa’, Stars and Stripes, 6 October 2023, https://www.stripes.com/branches/air_force/2023-10-06/reaper-drones-kyushu-okinawa-air-force-japan-11613613.html.

21 Mallory Shelbourne, ‘Navy Expanding Attack Submarine Presence on Guam as a Hedge against Growing Chinese Fleet’, USNI News, 2 November 2022, https://news.usni.org/2022/11/02/navy-expanding-attack-submarine-presence-on-guam-as-a-hedge-against-growing-chinese-fleet. The Los Angeles-class nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) are the generation that were built from 1972 to 1996, and are now being gradually replaced by the newer Virginia class.

22 Australian Submarine Agency, ‘Submarine Rotational Force– West’, https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/submarine-rotational-force-west#:~:text=From%20as%20early%20as%202027,West%20(SRF%2DWest).

23 The INF treaty was originally signed in 1987 by the United States and the Soviet Union.

24 Veerle Nouwens et al., ‘Long-range Strike Capabilities in the Asia-Pacific: Implications for Regional Security’, IISS, January 2024, https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/research-papers/2024/01/iiss_long-range-strike-capabilities-in-the-asia-pacific_implications-for-regional-stability_012024.pdf.

25 US Embassy in the Philippines, ‘Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) Fact Sheet’, 20 March 2023, https://ph.usembassy.gov/enhanced-defense-cooperation-agreement-edca-fact-sheet/.

26 Government of Japan, Ministry of Defense, ‘Defense Buildup Program’, 16 December 2022, https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/agenda/guideline/plan/pdf/program_en.pdf.

27 On the proportion of such chips produced in Taiwan, see Debby Wu, ‘TSMC Facilities to Resume Production Overnight after Quake’, Bloomberg, 3 April 2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-03/tsmc-evacuates-production-lines-after-major-taiwan-quake?embedded-checkout=true.

28 For the texts of the US–China Communiqués of 1972, 1979 and 1982, see ‘Taiwan: Texts of the Taiwan Relations Act, the U.S.– China Communiqués, and the “Six Assurances”’, Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, 21 May 1998, https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/19980521_96-246F_a5b0e9334d4b4028eeb7dcb41626bddef3dc2c9a.pdf.

29 For TSMC’s investments in the US, see Natalie Sherman, ‘TSMC Wins Subsidies to Expand US Chip Manufacturing in Arizona’, BBC News, 8 April 2024, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68763232.

30 Ibid.

31 Ibid.