Analyses of mathematical models for city population dynamics under heterogeneity

Abstract

In this study, a mathematical model which takes heterogeneity into account is presented to describe city population dynamics. Initial insight is gained by qualitative analyses of a homogeneous version of this model. To understand the population dynamics of South African cities the model is applied to case studies of three major cities, Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg. For these cases, parameter estimations are calculated from data extracted from population statistics provided for South Africa from our own and other research. The relative importance of the parameters is investigated through sensitivity analyses. Overall, it is shown that a full understanding of the population dynamics, important for city planners, should consider income and expenditure heterogeneity of these South African cities.

Keywords:

• differential equations
• heterogeneity
• parameter estimation
• population dynamics
• sensitivity analysis