The left returns to Polish Parliament: a change of people’s hearts? Determinants of right and left identification on the individual level

ABSTRACT

The article examines the individual-level durability of left-right political identification and verifies hypotheses about the persistence of absence of the economic dimension in its formation. We determined an asymmetry between the left- and the right wing voters, in that the latter are more stable in their identity. As regards the substantive meaning of the right and left, the cultural-ideological axis remains the strongest determinant. The economic axis differentiates society, but irrespective of the left-right axis: the extreme statist persons (notionally potential left wing voters) are on average non-ideological. We explain these factors by the founding event that determined the structure of political conflict in many Central and East European countries: the peaceful revolution of 1989. We verify the hypotheses with a panel survey conducted in 2015 and 2019, immediately after parliamentary elections. Altogether, 628 respondents participated in both waves.

KEYWORDS:

• Central Europe
• elections
• political parties
• post-communism
• Poland

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 The strength of pre-communist legacies was one of the key predictors of the success of communist successor parties (Kitschelt 2002).

2 The origin, structure, political involvement and internal dynamics of the independent union movement is described in: Kowalski (1990); Sułek (2006); Touraine (1983); Laba (1991); Ost (2006); Kubik (1994); Wenzel (2016).

3 In the 2019 elections PO ran in coalition with other parties as the Civic Coalition (KO). In the text it is referred to as PO for clarity and brevity.

4 The two-factor structure was confirmed by the factor analysis conducted in both the 1^st wave (2015) and 2^nd wave (2019).

5 The left-right position was measured on 11-point scale. The variables were recoded: 0-4 for the left, 5 for the centre, 6-10 for the right, missing data (don’t knows and refusals) for non-ideological.

6 The stability of ideological preferences is operationalized as belonging to one of the ideological categories described above in both 2015 and 2019. We do not take into consideration shifts of position within the blocks.

Additional information

Funding

The project the Dynamics of Political Attitudes and Opinions was financed by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education in Poland under the 2019-2022 program “Regional Initiative of Excellence”, project number 012 / RID / 2018/19.

Notes on contributors

Michał Wenzel

Michał Wenzel, PhD, is associate professor at SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Warsaw. His research interests include: political attitudes and communication, methodology of political research, as well as civil society development and labour movements in Central and Eastern Europe.

Marta Żerkowska-Balas

Marta Żerkowska-Balas, PhD, is a sociologist and political scientist at SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Warsaw. She studies mechanisms of political decision-making, relations between citizens and political parties, and the theory and practice of democracy in Central and Eastern Europe.