Rally 'round the Ukrainian flag. The Russian attack and the (temporary?) suspension of geopolitical polarization in Italy

ABSTRACT

Until recently, the configuration of geopolitical orientations in the Italian electorate seemed to reflect processes of political polarization triggered by the upsurge of populism, which reached its zenith at the general election of 2018. In particular, the emergence of pro-Russian sympathies among Italian parties seemed to overlap Euroscepticism and a more general rejection of mainstream western politics. Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, in February 2022, may further shift the geopolitical points of reference of Italian parties and the party system. The article uses survey data to analyse the reactions of the Italian electorate to the outbreak of war on the Eastern borders of the EU and to compare the geopolitical positions of party electorates before – in the spring of 2020 – and (immediately) after this new potential watershed. The results suggest an (at least temporary) consensus among Italian voters in favour of the Ukrainian cause, a marked weakening of pro-Russian sentiments, and an (at least provisional) suspension of the polarization linked to international references.

KEYWORDS:

• Ukraine war
• polarization
• populism
• Euroscepticism
• pro-Russian parties

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank the journal editors, Maurizio Carbone and James Newell, for their useful comments and help.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. Forza Italia: https://twitter.com/forza_italia/status/955807099077918721?lang=es

2. Putin and Berlusconi seal ‘South Stream’ pipeline deal, www.euractiv.com, 18.5 2009.

3. The dataset includes all parties winning at least 2% of the vote in the general elections held between 2008 and 2017.

4. Giorgia Meloni’s speech to the CPAC, Orlando (Florida), 26.02.22.

5. The survey was undertaken by Demos & Pi for the newspaper, la Repubblica. The data were collected between 2 and 4 March 2022 by Demetra using a mixture of computer-assisted telephone interviewing, computer-assisted mobile interviewing and computer-assisted web interviewing. The national sample of respondents (N = 1,015) is representative of the socio-demographic characteristics and the regions of residence of the adult population (with a sampling error of 3.1%). The complete set of results is available at http://www.demos.it/a01956.php. The complete set of technical details is available at www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it.

6. In addition to the League and the M5s, Russia has relations with the Front National and Alternative für Deutschland.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Fabio Bordignon

Fabio Bordignon teaches Political Science at the University of Urbino Carlo Bo, where he carries out research at the Laboratory of Social and Political Studies. His main areas of research interest are electoral behaviour and the personalization of politics. Recent publications include: Le divergenze parallele. L’Italia: dal voto devoto al voto liquido (Laterza 2018, with Luigi Ceccarini and Ilvo Diamanti), and Il partito del capo. Da Berlusconi a Renzi (Maggioli 2014).

Ilvo Diamanti

Ilvo Diamanti teaches European Political Systems at the University of Urbino Carlo Bo, where he directs the Laboratory of Social and Political Studies. His main areas of research interest are electoral behaviour, populism and the personalization of politics. Recent publications include: with Marc Lazar, Popolocrazia. Le metamorfosi della democrazia (Laterza 2018) and with Fabio Bordignon and Luigi Ceccarini, Le divergenze parallele. L’Italia: dal voto devoto al voto liquido (Laterza 2018).

Fabio Turato

Fabio Turato teaches International Relations at the University of Urbino Carlo Bo, where he carries out research at the Laboratory of Social and Political Studies. His main areas of research interest are: geopolitics, populism and the personalization of foreign politics. Recent publications include: Capipopolo. Leader e leadership del populismo europeo (Castelvecchi 2018) and Opinione pubblica e politica estera. Leader, mass media e personalizzazione (Aracne 2013)