On estimating shot selection by a batsman in Twenty20 cricket: A probabilistic approach

ABSTRACT

In cricket, the prime responsibility lies with the batsmen of a team to do the bulk of the scoring. Therefore, the strategy of playing shots is more specific to the batsmen and all-rounders of the team. Based on the match situation, a batsman must play either defensively to defend his wicket or bat aggressively to progress his team’s total score. Given the expertise of the batsman, the captain of the fielding team shall decide which bowler to bowl and place the fielders in such a way that a batsman find it difficult to score runs. However, the fielding arrangement depends on the type of bowler (i.e., either fast or spin). Therefore, this study tries to determine the probabilistic estimation of shot selection by a batsman against bowling type after dividing the entire cricket field into six different nonoverlapping areas. Initially, the probabilities of shots played by a batsman are estimated using multinomial distribution. Thereafter, transition probabilities of shots for a batsman along with mean recurrence time are estimated using Markov chain. This study will be helpful for the captain of the fielding team to arrange the fielder and choose his bowlers against a given batsman of the opponent team.

KEYWORDS:

• Cricket analytics
• Markov chain
• probability
• sports
• multinomial distribution

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewer for his/her detailed, careful, and exhaustive comments. These have led to very substantial improvement of the paper.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Notes

1 Note: The Off side and Leg side of a batsman solely depends on whether the batter is right handed or left-handed when the bowler starts run up to bowl a delivery.