2 Asia-Pacific

Abstract

Key trends

• In Myanmar, violence intensified and peace negotiations made no progress. Similarly, the conflict between the Philippines and the New People’s Army (NPA) escalated and talks at government level ended permanently.

• Incidents in Southern Thailand remained low level, but the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) proved able to strike outside its main operational area, including in Bangkok.

Strategic implications

• The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines remained the most active extremist group in the region, but the risk of ISIS resurgence in Southeast Asia calls for the strengthening of naval and intelligence cooperation among neighbouring states.

• ISIS struggled to infiltrate the ethno-nationalist conflict in Southern Thailand, but anti-Muslim attitudes might encourage recruitment.

Prospects

• As Western countries struggle to engage with Myanmar, China’s influence on its politics is likely to increase.

• The resumption of peace talks with the NPA is unlikely.

• Worsening ethnic and religious animosity in Thailand does not bode well for a long-term solution to the conflict.

Notes

1 Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security, ‘Peace and Security Brief’, vol. 3, no. 10, October 2019.

2 Moe Thuzar, ‘Myanmar at the ICJ: Intent and Implications’, ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, 22 November 2019.

3 Maung Aung Myoe, ‘The Soldier and the State: The Tatmadaw and Political Liberalization in Myanmar since 2011’, South East Asia Research, vol. 22, no. 2, 2014, pp. 244–5.

4 See John Buchanan, ‘Militias in Myanmar’, The Asia Foundation, July 2016; Min Zaw Oo, ‘Understanding Myanmar’s Peace Process: Ceasefire Agreements’, Catalyzing Reflection, Swiss Peace Foundation, February 2014, p. 33. The exact strength of the militia may be ‘unknowable’.

5 Andrew Selth, ‘“Strong, Fully Efficient and Modern”: Myanmar’s New Look Armed Forces’, Griffith Asia Institute, Regional Outlook, no. 49, 2016.

6 Jeff M. Smith (ed.), Asia’s Quest for Balance: China’s Rise and Balancing in the Indo-Pacific (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2018).

7 Elliot Brennan and Min Zaw Oo, ‘Peace, Alliance and Inclusivity, Ending Conflict in Myanmar’, Brookings Institution, 1 April 2016.

8 Estimates vary widely but are based on various independent sources.

9 The group suspended its participation in the NCA-mandated process in 2018 and in 2019.

10 The group suspended its participation in the NCA-mandated process in 2018 and in 2019.

11 Willem van Schendel, ‘Geographies of Knowing, Geographies of Ignorance: Jumping Scale in Southeast Asia’, Environment and Planning D: Society and Space, vol. 20, no. 6, 2002, pp. 647–68.

12 Ibid.

13 Humanitarian Assistance and Resilience Programme Facility and the Myanmar Information Management Unit, ‘Vulnerability in Myanmar: A Secondary Data Review of Needs, Coverage and Gaps’, June 2018.

14 UNODC, ‘Synthetic Drugs in East and South-East Asia: Trends and Patterns of Amphetamine-type Stimulants and New Pscyhoactive Substances’, March 2019.

15 See Michael Jonsson, Elliot Brennan and Christopher O’Hara, ‘Financing War or Facilitating Peace? The Impact of Rebel Drug Trafficking on Peace Negotiations in Colombia and Myanmar’, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, vol. 39, no. 6, January 2016, pp. 542–59.

16 Yuichi Nitta, ‘Myanmar investment inflows double from China as deals surge’, Nikkei Asian Review, 18 July 2019.

17 Paul Keenan, ‘A Dangerous Precedent: The UWSA and Statehood’, EBO Background Paper no. 3, June 2019.

18 Ibid.

19 Wataru Suzuki and Yuichi Nitta, ‘Suu Kyi: Myanmar constitution must change for “complete democracy”’, Nikkei Asian Review, 23 October 2019.

20 Elliot Brennan, ‘U Ko Ni’s assassination a symptom of deepening divisions in Myanmar’, Interpreter, Lowy Institute, 31 January 2017.

21 International Crisis Group, ‘A Violent Push to Shake up Ceasefire Negotiations’, Asia Briefing no. 158, 24 September 2019.

22 ‘At least 14 dead in unprecedented Northern Alliance attacks’, Frontier Myanmar, 15 August 2019; ‘Focal Points: TNLA, MNDAA and AA Launch Coordinated Attacks, Conflict Likely to Escalate’, Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security, 24 August 2019.

23 OCHA Humanitarian Country Team in Myanmar, ‘Humanitarian Needs Overview Myanmar’, 20 December 2019.

24 Ibid.

25 Ibid.

26 Ibid.

27 Reporters Without Borders, ‘Myanmar’, 2019 World Press Freedom Index, 2019.

28 Alexandra Stevenson, ‘Facebook Admits It Was Used to Incite Violence in Myanmar’, New York Times, 6 November 2018.

29 Tin Aung et al., ‘Rural and urban disparities in health-seeking for fever in Myanmar: findings from a probability-based household survey’, Malaria Journal, vol. 15, article no. 386, 25 July 2016.

30 World Bank, ‘Myanmar Economic Monitor: Building Reform Momentum’, June 2019.

31 Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security, ‘Peace and Security Brief’, vol. 3, no. 2, February 2019; Jesmin Papri, ‘Bangladesh: No ARSA, Arakan Militant Bases in Country’, BenarNews, 9 January 2019.

32 UN Food and Agriculture Organization, ‘ASF situation in Asia update’, Agriculture and Consumer Production Department, 9 January 2020.

33 OCHA Humanitarian Country Team in Myanmar, ‘Humanitarian Needs Overview Myanmar’.

34 David Eckstein, Marie-Lena Hutfils and Maik Winges, ‘Global Climate Risk Index 2019: Who Suffers Most from Extreme Weather Events? Weather-related Loss Events in 2017 and 1998 to 2017’, Germanwatch, December 2018.

35 Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, ‘Myanmar’, 2019.

36 See Elliot Brennan, ‘Climate Change and Security Threats in Southeast Asia’, in Ashok Swain, Joakim Öjendal and Anders Jägerskog (eds.), Handbook of Security and the Environment (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2020–forthcoming).

37 Nan Lwin, ‘Myanmar Military Chief Thanks Beijing for Support on Rakhine Crisis’, Irrawaddy, 10 April 2019.

1 Michael Hart, ‘Deciphering the jihadist threat to Mindanao’s Moro peace process’, IISS Blogs & Podcasts, 20 May 2019.

2 Lt-Gen. Felimon Santos Jr took over as chief of staff on 4 January 2020.

3 Philippine Statistics Authority, ‘ARMM Poverty Statistics’, 17 April 2019; Ralf Rivas, ‘Philippine poverty incidence down in first half of 2018’, Rappler, 10 April 2019.

4 Philippine Statistics Authority, ‘ARMM Poverty Statistics’, 17 April 2019.

5 Pia Ranada, ‘Comelec: Bangsamoro Organic Law “deemed ratified”’, Rappler, 25 January 2019.

6 Llanesca Panti, ‘Sulu voters reject BOL’, GMA News, 23 January 2019.

7 Catherina S. Valente, ‘Duterte open to creation of MNLF region’, Manila Times, 21 August 2019.

8 Bong Garcia, ‘Security team deployment will constrict BIFF movements’, SunStar Zamboanga, 28 August 2019.

9 Rene Acosta, ‘Fierce AFP campaign forces BIFF, faction to forge alliance’, BusinessMirror, 7 April 2019.

10 Carmela Fonbuena, ‘Leader of Isis in Philippines killed, DNA tests confirm’, Guardian, 14 April 2019.

11 ‘Military remains “careful” as Maute “remnants” continue to recruit members’, CNN Philippines, 15 October 2019.

12 ‘Jolo cathedral bombing death toll rises to 23’, GMA News, 4 February 2019.

13 Roel Pareño, ‘Sayyaf faction tagged in Sulu bombing’, Philippine Star, 30 June 2019.

14 ‘Suspected suicide bomber attacks Sulu military camp’, Rappler, 8 September 2019.

15 ‘Two suspected suicide bombers from Egypt killed in Philippines’, Al-Jazeera, 6 November 2019.

16 Genalyn Kabiling, ‘Duterte to AFP, PNP: Finish off Abu Sayyaf’, Manila Bulletin, 7 July 2019.

17 Edwin O. Fernandez, ‘Maguindanao clashes displace 30,000 villagers’, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 15 March 2019.

18 ‘Clashes in southern Philippines displace around 50,000 people’, Xinhua, 22 March 2019.

19 Taher Solaiman, ‘At least 1,600 families flee as Army pursues BIFF in Cotabato, Maguindanao’, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 31 July 2019.

20 OCHA, ‘Philippines: Mindanao Humanitarian Situation’, 19 June 2019.

21 Carolyn O. Arguillas, ‘BTA creates Special Committee on Marawi; UXOs cleared by end of October’, Minda News, 29 September 2019.

22 Jigger J. Jerusalem, ‘Groups slam gov’t for failure to address HR violations under martial law’, Davao Today, 24 May 2019.

23 Republic of the Philippines Presidential Communications Operations Office, ‘President Duterte to Moros: Take advantage of BARMM to “correct” historical injustices’, 29 March 2019.

24 Ali Macabalang, ‘BARMM chief calls for a moral gov’t’, Manila Bulletin, 11 August 2019.

25 Karl R. Ocampo, ‘10-yr agriculture master plan for BARMM readied’, Philippine Daily Inquirer, 6 May 2019.

1 Lt-Gen. Felimon Santos Jr took over as chief of staff on 4 January 2020.

2 IFAD, ‘The Republic of the Philippines: COSOP results review’, 31 December 2016.

3 ‘Govt admits failure to reduce poverty’, Manila Times, 17 February 2014.

4 ‘Duterte ouster Reds’ 2019 priority: Sison’, ABS–CBN News, 2 January 2019.

5 E.J. Roque, ‘Duterte permanently ends peace talks with Reds’, Philippine News Agency, 21 March 2019.

6 Catherine S. Valente, ‘Duterte to form new peace panel to talk to Reds’, Manila Times, 22 March 2019.

7 Nestor Corrales, ‘Duterte calls on task force vs insurgency to “work doubly hard”’, Inquirer, 16 July 2019.

8 Ruth Abbey Gita-Carlos, ‘Duterte wants focus on “conflict-prone” areas to stop insurgency’, Inquirer, 19 November

2019.

9 ‘CPP foreign funding revealed; PH asks Belgium, EU to stop cash flow’, Manila Bulletin, 6 March 2019.

10 Francis Wakefield, ‘AFP official unmasks CPP fronts, networks’, Manila Bulletin, 5 April 2019.

11 ‘Joma says Duterte “must be crazy” for asking NPA to drop their guns’, GMA News, 14 March 2019.

12 NDFP, ‘Fascism–Duterte’s ideology–is old and rotten’, NDFP statement, 21 June 2019.

13 Adrian Stewart, ‘Bounty for Negros cops’ killers now P5 million’, Panay News, 2 August 2019.

14 Arianne Merez, ‘Palace rules out martial law in Negros for now’, ABS–CBN News, 6 August 2019.

15 Michael Hart, ‘Deciphering the jihadist threat to Mindanao’s Moro peace process’, IISS Blogs & Podcasts, 20 May 2019.

16 ‘27 ex-RPA-ABB rebels complete basic military training’, Sunstar Bacolod, 10 November 2019.

17 Nick Aspinwall, ‘In the Philippines, activists increasingly face a “living hell”’, The Lowy Institute, 15 February 2019.

18 Lian Buan, ‘Duterte admin dismisses red-tagging petition as “implausible”’, Rappler, 18 July 2019.

19 Alan Robles, ‘Safety fears after Philippines names Oxfam a front for communist terror’, South China Morning Post, 10 November 2019.

20 Aaron Recuenco, ‘PNP to probe anti-communist death squad in Negros Oriental’, Manila Bulletin, 29 August 2019.

21 ‘14 killed in NegOr; NPA claims they were farmers’, Sunstar Cebu, 30 March 2019.

22 ‘Albayalde on 14 slain farmers: They “fought back” during arrest’, Manila Times, 1 April 2019.

23 Anna Felicia Bajo, ‘NPA recruits as young as 12 in Northern Mindanao, CARAGA – military’, GMA News, 6 September 2019.

24 Department of Social Welfare and Development, Government of the Philippines, ‘DSWD DROMIC Report #1 on the Armed Conflict in Manjuyod, Negros Oriental’, 25 June 2019.

25 Communist Party of the Philippines, ‘NPA-Quezon, Supports the People’s Opposition to Kaliwa Dam Project, Vows to Launch More Tactical Offensives!’, NPA statement, 10 June 2019.

26 ‘Rebels threaten to halt operation of power plants in South’, Mindanao Examiner, 22 August 2019.

27 Jofelle Tesorio, ‘Joma Sison says summons from Manila “malicious”, “futile”’, ABS–CBN News, 13 February 2019.

28 Rambo Talabong, ‘CPP taps students of 10 Manila universities for Red October plot – Galvez’, Rappler, 6 October 2018.

29 Michael Hart, ‘Collapsed Talks Lead Philippines to Seek New Approach with NPA’, Asia Sentinel, 10 April 2019.

1 ‘Court to rule on Future Forward dissolution case next month’, Bangkok Post, 26 December 2019.

2 Noah Lee and Nisha David, ‘Hardline Rebels May Join Southern Thai Peace Talks, Officials in Malaysia Say’, BenarNews, 2 December 2019.

3 Zachary Abuza, ‘The Ongoing Insurgency in Southern Thailand: Trends in Violence, Counterinsurgency Operations, and the Impact of National Politics’, INSS, September 2011, p. 4.

4 John Funston, ‘Conflict in Southern Thailand: Causes, Agents and Trajectory’, ARC Federation Fellowship Islam, Syari’ah and Governance Background Paper Series, 2008, pp. 5–6.

5 Human Rights Watch, ‘Thailand: No Justice 10 Years After Tak Bai Killings’, 25 October 2014.

6 Don Pathan, ‘Future Forward’s Inroads in Thai Deep South Alarm Military, BRN’, BenarNews, 17 October 2019.

7 Nontarat Phaicharoen, ‘Thai PM Defends Directive to Gather Data on Muslim Students’, BenarNews, 17 September 2019.

8 Adam Burke, Pauline Tweedie and Ora-orn Poocharoen, ‘The Contested Corners of Asia: Subnational Conflict and International Development Assistance: The Case of Southern Thailand’, The Asia Foundation, 2013, p. 24.

9 Wassana Nanuam and Wassayos Ngamkham, ‘Policing Islamic schools to secure the state’, Bangkok Post, 25 February 2019.

10 Burke, Tweedie and Poocharoen, ‘The Contested Corners of Asia: Subnational Conflict and International Development Assistance: The Case of Southern Thailand’, pp. 19, 28.

11 ‘Thai army charges opposition parties with sedition’, Jakarta Post, 4 October 2019.

12 Tappani Boonbandit, ‘Apirat Revives Red Scare in Epic Rant Against Opposition’, Khaosod English, 11 October 2019.

13 ‘Interview: Military Surveillance Turning Thailand into “1984”’, Khaosod English, 9 October 2019.

14 ‘South peace chief wants BRN talks’, Bangkok Post, 30 November 2019.

15 ‘Thailand: MARA Patani Negotiator Resigns from Deep South Peace Talks’, BenarNews, 17 May 2019.

16 ‘Thai Peace Negotiator Predicts Change in Deep South Dialogue Partners’, BenarNews, 29 November 2019.

17 Lee and David, ‘Hardline Rebels May Join Southern Thai Peace Talks, Officials in Malaysia Say’.

18 ‘Army hunts checkpoint attackers’, Bangkok Post, 7 November 2019.

19 ‘Soldiers sent to live with local people in deep South’, Bangkok Post, 21 May 2019.

20 Don Pathan, ‘Slaying of Buddhist Monks in Thai Deep South Jolts Nation’, BenarNews, 22 January 2019.

21 Anthony Davis, ‘Despite big bangs, Thai Muslim rebels fading away’, Asia Times, 11 November 2019.

22 Sunai Phasuk, ‘Notorious Militia Member Arrested in Southern Thailand’, Human Rights Watch, 18 June 2019.

23 ‘Thai rebel suspect could have been suffocated, probe finds’, Star, 28 July 2019.

24 Pravit Rojanaphruk, ‘Letter Shows Cops Asked University to Monitor Muslim Students’, Khaosod English, 16 September 2019.

25 ‘“Not enough monks” in anthem video’, Bangkok Post, 22 May 2019.