The emergence of critical incidents in Rugby Union matches using Markov chain analysis

ABSTRACT

During a rugby match, teams are continually trying to cause instabilities of different magnitudes on each other. Once a perturbation occurs, a phase transition emerges. Markov chain analysis has the potential to investigate emerging patterns in rugby union. This study examined the probability of a critical incident (CI; penalties and tries) occurring during Rugby Union matches, and whether differences would exist between winning and losing. The Markov chain analysis was used to identify the probability of a transition from a game state to a further state, due to the analysis of the preceding state. A game phase was defined as a technical and tactical match action which occurred between two consecutive advantage lines. Contingency tables were assembled from 280 phases registered during 11 matches of Brazilian Rugby Union XV A Series Championship. The results showed that previous technical and tactical actions made from rucks had the highest probability of generating a transition phase leading to a CI. The results suggest that the winning teams adopt a more flexible approach to the environmental changes that occur throughout a game and demonstrated more flexibility during transitional state occurrences, with higher variability in technical and tactical actions related to a previous game phase.

KEY POINTS

• The Markov chain analysis showed that previous technical and tactical actions made from rucks had the highest probability of generating a transition phase leading to a CI.

• Winning teams may adopt a more flexible approach to the environmental changes that occur throughout a game.

• Higher variability in technical and tactical actions related to a previous game phase was observed in winning teams.

• The game action leading to CI moments for winning teams involved forwards and backs, while losing teams mainly depended on the involvement of forwards and eventually on opponent errors.

• Markov chain analysis may be a useful and valid tool to rugby match-play analysis considering the complex system framework.

KEYWORDS:

• Critical incident
• match analysis
• rugby players
• team sports

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This study was financed in part by the ‘‘Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior’’. Brasil (CAPES). Finance Code 001. A. M. is supported by CNPq (304269/2021-2) and M.S.A. is supported by CNPp (306457/2017-2).