Validity of an established metabolic disorder index as a predictor for metabolic eliminations in endurance horses

Peer review under responsibility of Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Cairo University.

Figures & data

able 1 Prediction of metabolic elimination based on MDI values in endurance horses.

MDI values	Prediction for Metabolic Disorder
5.5–14.5	Borderline
14.5–17.5	Prone
17.5 and above	High probability

Adamu et al. [23].

able 2 Average speed of horses competing in endurance races.

Parameter		Average Speed (km h^−1)
Sucessfully completed (n = 33) Eliminated due to metabolic disorder (n = 21)		15.72^a ± 2.9
		13.91^b ± 2.6
Race distance (km)
	40 (n = 23)	12.65^a ± 1.8
	80 (n = 25)	15.99^b ± 3.5
	120 (n = 6)	12.86^a ± 0.2

All values are expressed as mean ± SE. ^{a, b} means with different superscripts within column are significantly different at P < .05 for the parameters,

able 3 Blood parameters of successfully completed and eliminated endurance horses in 40 km race distance.

Blood parameters	Horse status
	Successfully completed (n = 14)	Eliminated (n = 9)
PCV (L L^−1)	0.34^a ± 0.05	0.32^a ± 0.04
CK (U L^−1)	147.5^a ± 2.6	219.0^b ± 5.3
Cl^− (mmol L^−1)	105.4^b ± 3.2	97.6^a ± 4.3
IL-6 (ng mL^−1)	4.3^a ± 2.3	4.0^a ± 2.5
GR (ng mL^−1)	29.1^a ± 6.5	21.2^a ± 3.1

All values are expressed as mean ± SE. ^{a, b, c} Means with different superscripts within rows are significantly different at P < .05. PCV = packed cell volume; CK = Creatine kinase; Cl⁻ = Chloride; IL-6 = Interleukin-6; GR = Glutathione reductase.

able 4 Blood parameters of successfully completed and eliminated endurance horses in 80 km race distance.

Blood parameters	Horse Status
	Successfully completed (n = 15)	Eliminated (n = 10)
PCV (L L^−1)	0.37^a ± 0.06	0.35^a ± 0.07
CK (U L^−1	150.7^a ± 2.9	216.0^b ± 6.5
Cl^− (mmol L^−1)	103.7^b ± 3.3	99.8^a ± 5.6
IL-6 (ng mL^−1)	5.3^a ± 4.6	5.0^a ± 2.8
GR (ng mL^−1)	32.1^a ± 7.8	23.4^a ± 3.3

All values are expressed as mean ± SE. ^{a, b, c} Means with different superscripts within rows are significantly different at P < .05. PCV = packed cell volume; CK = Creatine kinase; Cl⁻ = Chloride; IL-6 = Interleukin-6; GR = Glutathione reductase.

able 5 Blood parameters of successfully completed and eliminated endurance horses in 120 km race distance.

Blood parameters	Horse Status
	Successfully completed (n = 4)	Eliminated (n = 2)
PCV (L L^−1)	0.36^a ± 0.04	0.30^a ± 0.05
CK (U L^−1	152.2^a ± 2.4	224.0^b ± 5.5
Cl^− (mmol L^−1)	101.4^b ± 2.9	92.7^a ± 4.7
IL-6 (ng mL^−1)	5.1^a ± 3.8	4.9^a ± 2.6
GR (ng mL^−1)	30.9^a ± 5.7	24.5^a ± 2.5

All values are expressed as mean ± SE. ^{a, b, c} Means with different superscripts within rows are significantly different at P < .05. PCV = packed cell volume; CK = Creatine kinase; Cl⁻ = Chloride; IL-6 = Interleukin-6; GR = Glutathione reductase.

able 6 Intact results of 54 horses that participated in the endurance race of 40, 80 and 120 km race distances.

Status of horses	40 km	80 km	120 km	Total
Successfully completed	14	15	4	33
Eliminated from race	9	10	2	21
Total	23	25	6	54

able 7 Sensitivity, Specificity, Positive and Negative predictive values of MDI in 40 km endurance horses.

Parameter	MDI
	Eliminated	Successfully completed	Total
>5.5 (Positive)	9 True Positive	3 False Positive	12
<5.5 (Negative)	2 False Negative	9 True Negative	11
Total number of horses	9	14	23
Statistics	Values	Lower and Upper 95% confidence interval
Sensitivity	81.82%	48.22% to 97.72%
Specificity	75.00%	42.81% to 94.51%
Positive predictive value	75.00%	51.99% to 89.26%
Negative predictive value	81.82%	55.20% to 94.27%
Accuracy	78.26%	56.30% to 92.54%

able 8 Sensitivity, Specificity, Positive and Negative predictive values of MDI in 80 km endurance horses.

Parameter	MDI
	Eliminated	Successfully completed	Total
>5.5 (Positive)	8 True Positive	3 False Positive	11
<5.5 (Negative)	2 False Negative	12 True Negative	14
Total number of horses	10	15	25
Statistics	Values	Lower and Upper 95% confidence interval
Sensitivity	80.00%	44.39% to 97.48%
Specificity	80.00%	51.91% to 95.67%
Positive predictive value	72.73%	48.06% to 88.49%
Negative predictive value	85.71%	62.87% to 95.51%
Accuracy	80.00%	59.30% to 93.17%

able 9 Sensitivity, Specificity, Positive and Negative predictive values of MDI in 120 km endurance horses.

Parameter	MDI
	Eliminated	Successfully completed	Total
>5.5 (Positive)	2 True Positive	1 False Positive	3
<5.5 (Negative)	0 False Negative	3 True Negative	3
Total number of horses	2	4	6
Statistics	Values	Lower and Upper 95% confidence interval
Sensitivity	100.00%	15.81% to 100.00%
Specificity	75.00%	19.41% to 99.37%
Positive predictive value	66.67%	26.81% to 91.61%
Negative predictive value	100.00%	18.71% to 100.00%
Accuracy	83.33%	35.88% to 99.58%