Fifty years of probabilistic decision analysis: a view from the UK

Figures & data

Table 1 Ramsey's decision problem

	States
	On the right road	On the wrong road
Actions
Continue	Right destination	Wrong destination
Go out of your way to get directions	Right destination, after diversion	Right destination, after diversion

Figure 1 Constructing von Neumann–Morgenstern utilities.

Figure 2 Judgementally assessed probability distribution for total inventory of chlorine-36 in 2030.

Figure 3 Bayesian network for identifying whether a country intends to develop a nuclear weapons programme. Adapted from Barclay et al (1977).

BarclaySBrownRVKellyCWPetersonCRIIIPhillipsLDSelvidgeJARPA Handbook for Decision Analysis1977

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