Cynefin: uncertainty, small worlds and scenarios

Figures & data

Figure 1 Modelling, analysis and induction.

Table 1 Different forms of uncertainty arising in an analysis

Sense-making	• Uncertainty about meaning/ambiguity
	• Uncertainty about what might happen (the science)
	• Uncertainty about how much impacts matter (values)
	• Uncertainty about related decisions
Analysis	• Uncertainty because of physical randomness
	• Uncertainty because of lack of knowledge
	• Uncertainty about the evolution of future beliefs and values
	• Uncertainty about the accuracy of calculations
Induction	• Uncertainty about the appropriateness of descriptive model (how well we have explained the world)
	• Uncertainty about the appropriateness of normative model (principles of modelling beliefs and values)
	• Uncertainty about depth to which to conduct an analysis

Source: French (1995)

Figure 2 The Cynefin model (Snowden, 2002).

Table 2 The use of nested models within the analysis phase

FrenchSUncertainty and imprecision: Modelling and analysisJournal of the Operational Research Society1995461707910.1057/jors.1995.8

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SnowdenDComplex acts of knowing—Paradox and descriptive self-awarenessJournal of Knowledge Management20026210011110.1108/13673270210424639

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