Trend breaks in the research and development process

Abstract

This work examines the behaviour of the input and output measures of the R&D process in the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, in the second half of the 20th century. The researcher and idea stock series can be construed as stationary fluctuations around a trend function, with a main breakpoint at the end of the 1960s. All the countries exhibit slower growth after their last breaks that during the decades preceding its first breaks. In this connection, the United States and Germany appear to represent the end points in the range of incidence.

Acknowledgements

The authors thank A. Colino for constructing the database and for his constant care in keeping it up to date. They are, likewise, grateful to A. Anchuelo, R. Myro, J. Pons, J. M. Sarabia and the referees for helpful comments and suggestions. V. Esteve acknowledges financial support from the Department of Business, Universities and Science of the Valencian Government, through the projects GRUPOS03/51 and GV05/030, as well as from the Department of Education and Science of Castilla-La Mancha's Government, through the project PBI-05-008.