Promotion speed and its effect on attrition of Navy-enlisted personnel: addressing heterogeneity in high school credentials

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between recruit quality and promotion speed of the US Navy's first-term enlisted personnel, which in turn is expected to affect retention. It also investigates whether there are quality differences between the various types of high school credentials presented at the time of recruitment, including test-based and attendance-based equivalencies and nontraditional high school diplomas. The results of this article suggest that the Navy's recent targeting of individuals with alternative high school credentials and nonhigh school graduates, who score in the top half of the Armed Forces Qualification Tests (AFQTs) as substitutes for diploma holders have desirable results for promotion speed but undesirable results for retention.

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research grant #N00014-001-0769. I am grateful for the resources provided by the University of Mississippi, Navy Personnel Research, Studies and Technology Division (NPRST) and the Naval Postgraduate School. In addition, I wish to thank Dr Stephen Mehay and an anonymous referee for their insightful comments. All remaining errors are my own.

Notes

¹ Unlike commissioned officers who obtain post-secondary education, enlisted personnel often have limited college education and invest heavily in on-the-job training while pursuing defined career paths.

² An exception is the nuclear field where the maximum enlistment age is 25 due to extensive training that is required.

³ In a recent study, Nimon and Hall (2007) discuss optimal job assignments using auctions are difficult to fill jobs.

⁴ The handful that experienced demotions are excluded from analyses as they are clearly different from not yet being promoted.