Modelling regional policy scenarios in the agri-food sector: a case study of a Spanish region

ABSTRACT

The agri-food industry has several features of great importance for sustainable economic growth in rural areas. The objective of this work is to evaluate the effects associated with different scenarios of growth, and changes in the regional agri-food industry. These scenarios simulate changes in exports and imports, changes in technology and changes in the level of industrial integration. We develop a computable general equilibrium model calibrated for the region. Our results indicate that policies trying to improve the competitiveness and dynamism of strategic sectors as the agro-industrial complex in this regional economy exert positive effects on its growth and income, having notable impacts on local job markets but also in other sectors and activities linked through the whole production chain.

KEYWORDS:

• Computable general equilibrium model
• social accounting matrix
• scenario analysis
• agri-food industry

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• C68
• L66
• Q10
• P16

Notes

¹ Specifically, the agri-food industry represented in this economy, in the period 1993–2007 of economic boom, 11.29% of industrial employment and 13% of the volume of turnover, maintaining and even increasing its participation in the subsequent years of crisis. In particular, these participations increased up to 12.19% and 14.76%, respectively, in 2010.

² In the case of crop production, on ground preparation, fertilization, planting, phytosanitary treatment, collection, and of livestock, on silage, desilage, distribution of feed, manure.

Additional information

Funding

The authors acknowledge the final support provided by the Economic and Social Council of Aragon (Consejo Económico y Social de Aragón, CESA) and the ‘Angela López-Jiménez, 2011’ award. This work has been partially supported by the projects ECO2013-41353-P from the Government of Spain, consolidated group S10 of the Government of Aragon and FEDER Founds 2014 and 2015 (Research Group ‘Growth, Demand and Natural Resources’).