Export margins and world shocks: an empirical investigation in fixed and floating regimes

Figures & data

Table 1. Summary statistics.

	σxm	σim	σxm/σim	ρ(xm, ∆gpdh)	ρ(xm, ∆gpdf)	ρ(im, ∆gpdh)	ρ(im, ∆gpdf)
Australia	0.239	0.065	3.686	0.018	0.022	−0.008	0.085
Belgium	0.056	0.068	0.822	−0.005	−0.019	0.007	0.025
Canada	0.118	0.042	2.813	−0.113	−0.040	−0.059	0.058
Switzerland	0.067	0.028	2.408	0.029	−0.034	0.109	−0.034
Czech Republic	0.155	0.009	17.633	0.058	−0.202	−0.020	−0.195
Germany	0.043	0.143	0.298	0.050	0.132	0.234	−0.036
Spain	0.082	0.064	1.267	0.025	−0.068	0.027	−0.092
Finland	0.114	0.021	5.330	0.043	−0.099	0.031	−0.033
France	0.046	0.046	0.992	0.053	−0.063	0.104	−0.052
United Kingdom	0.038	0.042	0.915	0.050	−0.020	0.150	0.048
Iceland	0.208	0.018	11.261	0.097	−0.197	−0.091	0.110
Italy	0.050	0.030	1.679	0.013	−0.057	0.126	−0.062
Japan	0.133	0.101	1.325	0.116	0.087	0.383	0.285
Korea Rep.	0.156	0.030	5.266	−0.077	−0.028	0.187	0.103
Luxembourg	0.222	0.002	128.841	−0.018	−0.168	0.075	−0.020
Mexico	0.264	0.029	9.145	−0.026	−0.130	0.004	0.012
Netherlands	0.049	0.034	1.438	0.013	−0.008	−0.066	−0.186
Norway	0.157	0.022	7.144	−0.036	−0.120	0.001	−0.022
New Zealand	0.262	0.013	20.860	0.008	−0.053	−0.092	0.120
Portugal	0.194	0.016	11.800	−0.100	−0.169	0.216	−0.078
Sweden	0.060	0.050	1.194	0.056	−0.026	−0.025	−0.007
United States	0.054	0.182	0.295	0.146	0.127	0.040	0.077
Mean	0.126	0.048	10.746	0.018	−0.052	0.061	0.005
Standard deviation	0.078	0.044	26.994	0.064	0.093	0.119	0.106

Figure 1. Distribution of intensive margins.

This figure displays the median, the ${25}^{th}$ and the ${75}^{th}$ percentile of intensive margins for all the countries in the sample.

Figure 2. Distribution of extensive margins.

This figure displays the median, the 25^th and the 75^th percentile of extensive margins for all the countries in the sample.

Figure 3. IRFs for intensive margins, full sample.

This figure displays mean impulse response functions of the intensive margin of exports to a one standard deviation shock in world prices. IRFs are calculated using all the countries in the sample.

Figure 4. IRFs for extensive margins, full sample.

This figure displays mean impulse response functions of the extensive margin of exports to a one standard deviation shock in world prices. IRFs are calculated using all the countries in the sample.

Figure 5. Peggers IRFs.

This figure displays mean impulse response functions of export margins to a one standard deviation shock in world prices. IRFs are calculated using countries classified as peggers. The first two rows display the responses of intensive margins while the last two rows display the responses of extensive margins.

Figure 6. Floaters IRFs.

This figure displays mean impulse response functions of export margins to a one standard deviation shock in world prices. IRFs are calculated using countries classified as floaters. The first two rows display the responses of intensive margins while the last two rows display the responses of extensive margins.

Figure 7. IRFs differences between peggers and floaters.

This figure displays the difference, with $95\mathrm{\%}$ confidence interval, between peggers and floaters for mean impulse response functions. The first two rows display the results for intensive margins while the last two rows display the results for extensive margins.

Table 2. Controlling for the exchange rate regime.

	Intensive Margin
	Impact	Cumulated
Pa	−0.0630*	−0.2347*
Pf	0.0665	* 0.1972*
Pm	−0.0515*	−0.1567*
Tbill	0.0504*	0.1626*
Pa*Dfix	−0.0538	−0.1866
Pf*Dfix	−0.0138	−0.0345
Pm*Dfix	0.0139	0.0340
Tbill*Dfix	−0.1012*	−0.3181*
	Extensive Margin
	Impact	Cumulated
Pa	−0.4279*	−1.3602*
Pf	−0.3373*	−1.0547*
Pm	0.2019*	0.6346*
Tbill	−0.0626	−0.2142
Pa*Dfix	−0.2016	−0.6359
Pf*Dfix	0.1534	0.4810
Pm*Dfix	−0.1537	−0.4929
Tbill*Dfix	0.2193*	0.7026*

Table 3. Controlling for the great trade collapse.

	Intensive Margin
	Impact	Cumulated
Pa	−0.1184*	−0.3943*
Pf	−0.0728*	−0.2287*
Pm	−0.0566*	−0.1601*
Tbill	0.0032	0.0061
Pa*Dperiod	0.0761*	0.1778
Pf*Dperiod	0.3788*	1.1721*
Pm*Dperiod	−0.0903*	−0.3177*
Tbill*Dperiod	0.1527*	0.4590*
	Extensive Margin
	Impact	Cumulated
Pa	−0.0541	−0.2159
Pf	0.1322*	0.4057*
Pm	0.3445*	1.0636*
Tbill	−0.0488	−0.1706
Pa*Dperiod	−0.9959*	−3.0717*
Pf*Dperiod	−0.8536*	−2.6062*
Pm*Dperiod	−0.3462*	−1.1019*
Tbill*Dperiod	−0.5181*	−1.5894*

Figure A1. Distribution of extensive margins.

Table A1. Summary statistics with extensive margins calculated as Eaton and Fieler (2019).

	σxm	σim	σxm/σim	ρ(xm, ∆gpdh)	ρ(xm, ∆gpdf)	ρ(im, ∆gpdh)	ρ(im, ∆gpdf)
Australia	0.258	0.065	3.967	0.016	0.000	−0.008	0.085
Belgium	0.098	0.068	1.439	−0.095	−0.238	0.007	0.025
Canada	0.182	0.042	4.334	−0.113	−0.123	−0.059	0.058
Switzerland	0.111	0.028	3.982	0.040	−0.181	0.109	−0.034
Czech Republic	0.206	0.009	23.397	0.028	−0.297	−0.020	−0.195
Germany	0.038	0.143	0.268	−0.059	−0.180	0.234	−0.036
Spain	0.126	0.064	1.956	−0.083	−0.199	0.027	−0.092
Finland	0.169	0.021	7.865	−0.023	−0.194	0.031	−0.033
France	0.076	0.046	1.640	−0.012	−0.168	0.104	−0.052
United Kingdom	0.052	0.042	1.244	0.033	−0.147	0.150	0.048
Iceland	0.129	0.018	6.972	0.114	−0.165	−0.091	0.110
Italy	0.066	0.030	2.221	−0.041	−0.200	0.126	−0.062
Japan	0.179	0.101	1.779	0.053	0.044	0.383	0.285
Korea Rep.	0.194	0.030	6.519	−0.136	−0.098	0.187	0.103
Luxembourg	0.243	0.002	141.370	−0.052	−0.227	0.075	−0.020
Mexico	0.258	0.029	8.949	−0.028	−0.154	0.004	0.012
Netherlands	0.086	0.034	2.529	−0.091	−0.209	−0.066	−0.186
Norway	0.200	0.022	9.093	−0.030	−0.117	0.001	−0.022
New Zealand	0.250	0.013	19.857	0.002	−0.043	−0.092	0.120
Portugal	0.217	0.016	13.188	−0.170	−0.227	0.216	−0.078
Sweden	0.116	0.050	2.300	0.003	−0.193	−0.025	−0.007
United States	0.098	0.182	0.541	0.004	−0.051	0.040	0.077
Mean	0.152	0.048	12.064	−0.029	−0.153	0.061	0.005
Standard deviation	0.070	0.044	29.516	0.067	0.082	0.119	0.106

Figure A2. Full sample IRFs.

Figure A3. Floaters IRFs.

Figure A4. Peggers IRFs.

Figure A5. IRFs differences between peggers and floaters.

Table A2. Data sources and transformations.

Original series	Source	Data transformation
Nominal GDP	OECD.StatExtracts	log differenced, deflated using the GDP Deflator
GDP Deflator	OECD.StatExtracts	None
US Treasury Bill Rate	FRED II	deflated using the US CPI
Bilateral export flows per product	UN Comtrade database	decomposition into extensive and intensive margins
Commodity price indices	World Bank Commodity Price Data

Table A3. List of countries and their classification.

Peggers	Floaters
Belgium	Australia
Finland	Canada
France	Czech Republic
Germany	Iceland (After 2001)
Iceland (Before 2001)	Japan
Italy	Mexico
Luxembourg	New Zealand
Netherlands	Norway
Portugal	South Korea
Spain	Sweden
	Switzerland
	United Kingdom
	United States

Eaton, J., and A. C. Fieler, “The Margins of Trade,” NBER Working Papers 26124, National Bureau of Economic Research 2019.

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