Economic development and the finance–growth nexus: a meta-analytic approach

Figures & data

Table 1. Number of selected works and descriptive statistics of the partial correlation coefficients, t-test, and Shapiro–Wilk normality test of collected estimates and univariate comparative analysis of three study types.

Study type	Number of selected works^a	K	Mean^b	Median^c	S.D.	Max.	Min.	Kurtosis	Skewness	t-test^d		Shapiro–Wilk normality test (z)^e
All studies	379	6135	0.082	0.073	0.251	0.898	−0.896	4.383	0.211	25.476***		11.765^†††
Studies of advanced economies	81	1396	0.090	0.085	0.209	0.896	−0.896	5.113	0.197	15.988***		8.233^†††
Studies of developing economies	299	4232	0.077	0.068	0.262	0.898	−0.896	4.202	0.215	19.216***		10.727^†††
Studies of emerging markets	46	507	0.096	0.066	0.265	0.893	−0.779	3.901	0.261	8.200***		4.594^†††

^aForty-three studies report estimates for two economic development types, and one study reports estimates for all three economic development types.

^bComparison among three study types: ANOVA: F = 2.17, p = 0.1148; Bartlett’s test: χ² = 101.4951, p = 0.000.

^cComparison among three study types: Kruskal–Wallis rank-sum test: χ² = 9.383, p = 0.0092.

^d***: Null hypothesis that the mean is zero is rejected at the 1% level.

^e†††: Null hypothesis of normal distribution is rejected at the 1% level.

Figure 1. Kernel density estimation of collected estimates.

The vertical axis is the kernel density. The horizontal axis is the partial correlation coefficient of collected estimates. See Table 1 for the descriptive statistics of the collected estimates.

Table 2. Synthesis of collected estimates.

Study type	Number of estimates (K)	(a) Traditional synthesis				(b) Heterogeneity test and measures				(c) Unrestricted weighted least squares average (UWA)
		Fixed-effect model (z value)^a		Random-effects model (z value)^a		Cochran Q test of homogeneity (p value)^b		I^2 statistic^c	H^2 statistic^d	UWA of all estimates (t value)^a,e		Number of adequately powered estimates^f		WAAP (weighted average of the adequately powered estimates) (t value)^a		Median S.E. of estimates		Median statistical power
All studies	6135	0.073***		0.081***		76721.54***		93.49	15.36	0.073***		78		0.072***		0.071		0.178
		(101.14)		(27.01)		(0.00)				(28.60)				(26.86)
Studies of advanced economies	1396	0.068***		0.085***		11474.27***		89.00	9.09	0.068***		0		-		0.070		0.159
		(43.66)		(17.25)		(0.00)				(15.22)				(-)
Studies of developing economies	4232	0.075***		0.078***		57574.09***		94.37	17.77	0.075***		87		0.072***		0.071		0.183
		(87.00)		(20.59)		(0.00)				(23.58)				(3.29)
Studies of emerging markets	507	0.077***		0.084***		7654.62***		92.87	14.03	0.077***		11		0.053***		0.073		0.186
		(27.79)		(7.69)		(0.00)				(7.15)				(15.72)

*** denotes statistical significance at the 1% level. Selected synthesis values are emphasized in bold.

^aNull hypothesis: The synthesized effect size is zero.

^bNull hypothesis: Effect sizes are homogeneous.

^cRanged between 0 and 100%, with larger scores indicating heterogeneity.

^dTakes zero in the case of homogeneity.

^eSynthesis method advocated by Stanley and Doucouliagos (2017) and Stanley et al. (2017).

^fDenotes the number of estimates with statistical power of 0.80 or more, as computed in reference to the UWA of all collected estimates.

Figure 2. Funnel plot of partial correlation coefficients.

Solid lines indicate the selected synthesized effect sizes as reported in Table 2.

Table 3. Univariate test of publication selection bias.

Study type	Number of estimates (K)	Under the assumption that the true effect size is zero				Under the assumption that the true effect size is the selected synthesis value in Table 2 (x)
		Number of estimates		Goodness-of-fit z-test (p value)^a		Number of estimates		Goodness-of-fit z-test (p value)^b
		PCCk <0	PCCk >0			PCCk<x	PCCk>x
All studies	6135	2124	4011	24.092***		3032	3103	0.907
				(0.000)				(0.365)
Studies of advanced economies	1396	418	978	14.988***		697	699	0.054
				(0.000)				(0.957)
Studies of developing economies	4232	1526	2706	18.139***		2165	2067	−1.506
				(0.000)				(0.132)
Studies of emerging markets	507	180	327	6.529***		236	271	6.529
				(0.000)				(0.120)

***denotes statistical significance at the 1% level.

^aNull hypothesis: The ratio of the positive versus negative values is 50:50.

^bNull hypothesis: The ratio of estimates below x versus those over x is 50:50.

Table 4. Meta-regression analysis of publication selection: all studies.

Estimator	Unrestricted WLS	WLS with bootstrapped standard errors	Cluster-robust WLS	Unbalanced panel	IV
(a) FAT–PET test (Equation: t = γ0+γ1(1/SE)+v)
Model	[1]	[2]	[3]	[4]^a	[5]
Intercept (FAT: H0: γ0 = 0)	0.2149*	0.2149	0.2149	−1.5054*	0.7919***
	(0.123)	(0.138)	(0.215)	(0.815)	(0.115)
1/SE (PET: H0: γ1 = 0)	0.0626***	0.0626***	0.0626***	0.1739***	0.0253***
	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.018)	(0.053)	(0.025)
K	6135	6135	6135	6135	6135
R^2	0.0218	0.0218	0.0218	0.0218	0.0253
(b) PEESE approach (Equation: t = γ0SE+γ1(1/SE)+v)
Model	[6]	[7]	[8]	[9]^b	[10]
SE	1.1881**	1.1881**	1.1881	−3.6865***	−46.7122***
	(0.475)	(0.467)	(1.110)	(1.014)	(5.609)
1/SE (H0: γ1 = 0)	0.0695***	0.0695***	0.0695***	0.0600***	0.0564***
	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.012)	(0.003)	(0.006)
K	6135	6135	6135	6135	6135
R^2	0.1183	0.1183	0.1183	-	-

Figures in parentheses beneath the regression coefficients are standard errors. Models [3], [4], and [8] report standard errors clustered by study. Models [5] and [10] use the inverse of the square root of the number of observations used as an instrument of the standard error. ***, **, and * denote statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.

^aHausman test: χ² = 31.71, p = 0.0000. Cluster-robust fixed-effects panel LSDV is used for estimation. ^bRandom-effects panel ML is used for estimation.

Table 5. Alternative estimates of publication selection bias-corrected effect size: all studies.

Method	Top 10^a	Selection model^b	Endogenous kinked model^c	p-uniform^d
Model	[1]	[2]	[3]	[4]
Publication selection bias-corrected effect size	0.0693***	0.0540***	0.0626***	0.0586***
	(0.008)	(0.009)	(0.005)	(0.001)
K	613	6135	6135	6135

Figures in parentheses are standard errors. *** denotes that the coefficient is statistically significantly different from zero at the 1% level.

^aArithmetic average of the top 10% most precise estimates (Stanley, Jarrell, and Doucouliagos 2010).

^bTest for publication selection bias using the conditional probability of publication as a function of a study’s results (Andrews and Kasy 2019).

^cPiecewise linear meta-regression of estimates on their standard errors, with a kink at the cut-off value of the standard error below which publication selection bias is unlikely (Bom and Rachinger 2019).

^dMethod based on the statistical theory that the distribution of p-values is uniform conditional on the population effect size (van Aert and van Assen 2021).

Table 6. Summary of publication selection bias test.

Study type	Number of estimates (K)	Test results^a
		Funnel asymmetry test (FAT) (H0: γ0 = 0)	Precision-effect test (PET) (H0: γ1 = 0)	Precision-effect estimate with standard error (PEESE) (H0: γ1 = 0)^b	Alternative estimates of publication selection bias-corrected effect size (H0: Effect size is zero)^b
All studies	6135	Rejected	Rejected	Rejected (0.0564/0.0695)	Rejected (0.0540/0.0693)
Studies of advanced economies	1396	Not rejected	Rejected	Rejected (0.0541/0.0894)	Rejected (0.0355/0.0458)
Studies of developing economies	4232	Not rejected	Rejected	Rejected (0.0722/0.0736)	Rejected (0.0698/0.0766)
Studies of emerging markets	507	Not rejected	Rejected	Rejected (0.0521/0.0701)	Rejected (0.0618/0.0797)

^aThe null hypothesis is rejected when three or more models show a statistically significant estimate. Otherwise not rejected.

^bFigures in parentheses are PSB-adjusted estimates. If two estimates are reported, the left and right figures denote the minimum and maximum estimates, respectively.

Table 7. Meta-regression analysis with selected moderators.

Estimator (Analytical weight in brackets)^a	Cluster-robust WLS [Precision]		Cluster-robust WLS [Sample size]		Cluster-robust WLS [Study size]		Multilevel mixed-effects RML		Cluster-robust random-effects panel GLS
Meta-independent variable (Default)/Model	[1]		[2]		[3]		[4]		[5]^b
Study type (Studies of advanced economies)
Studies of developing economies	0.0045		−0.0040		−0.0164		0.0066		0.0074
	(0.021)		(0.018)		(0.026)		(0.022)		(0.023)
Studies of emerging markets	−0.0040		−0.0167		−0.0523		0.0068		0.0081
	(0.027)		(0.025)		(0.043)		(0.062)		(0.064)
Selected moderators
Bank credit to GDP	−0.0528***		−0.0396**		−0.0353		−0.0609***		−0.0610***
	(0.018)		(0.019)		(0.026)		(0.017)		(0.017)
Comprehensive financial development index	−0.0692		−0.0468		−0.0552		−0.0614		−0.0613
	(0.042)		(0.040)		(0.040)		(0.045)		(0.045)
Number of target countries	−0.0006**		−0.0002		−0.0007**		−0.0012***		−0.0013***
	(0.000)		(0.000)		(0.000)		(0.000)		(0.000)
Cross-sectional data	0.0212		−0.0760*		0.1383*		0.1369***		0.1367***
	(0.075)		(0.044)		(0.073)		(0.051)		(0.052)
Time-series data	0.0748		0.0526		0.0892*		0.0515		0.0507
	(0.058)		(0.048)		(0.049)		(0.051)		(0.051)
OLS	0.0488**		0.0455**		0.0351		0.0329		0.0329
	(0.025)		(0.022)		(0.032)		(0.024)		(0.025)
Lagged	−0.0408		−0.0264		−0.1026***		−0.0259		−0.0239
	(0.027)		(0.024)		(0.033)		(0.038)		(0.039)
Trade openness	−0.0435**		−0.0250		−0.0143		−0.0128		−0.0115
	(0.019)		(0.016)		(0.022)		(0.011)		(0.011)
Education	0.0146		0.0105		0.0351		0.0088		0.0059
	(0.019)		(0.016)		(0.022)		(0.016)		(0.016)
Institutional quality	−0.0145		0.0026		−0.0245		−0.0152		−0.0147
	(0.028)		(0.022)		(0.030)		(0.014)		(0.014)
Financial crisis	0.0494		0.0076		0.0300		0.0130		0.0125
	(0.042)		(0.030)		(0.035)		(0.022)		(0.022)
SE	−0.33662		−0.11973		−0.43607		−0.63275		−0.65294
	(0.3311)		(0.3128)		(0.3161)		(0.4474)		(0.4621)
Intercept	0.12758***		0.08968***		0.15968***		0.16615***		0.16918***
	(0.0315)		(0.0270)		(0.0364)		(0.0421)		(0.0432)
K	6135		6135		6135		6135		6135
R^2	0.044		0.031		0.038		-		0.029

Figures in parentheses beneath the regression coefficients are robust standard errors. ***, **, and * denote statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively. See Appendix Table A1 for definitions and descriptive statistics of the meta-independent variables. Selected moderators denote meta-independent variables with a PIP of 0.50 or more in the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) estimation and with a t value of 1.00 or more in the weighted-average least squares (WALS) estimation, as reported in Appendix Table A2.

^aPrecision: inverse of standard error; Sample size: degree of freedom; Study size: inverse of the number of reported estimates.

^bHausman test: χ² = 17.92, p = 0.2103.

Table A1. Names, definitions, and descriptive statistics of meta-independent variables.

Variable name	Definition	Descriptive statistics
		Mean	Median	S.D.
Studies of advanced economies	1 = if the study target is advanced economies, 0 = otherwise	0.228	0	0.419
Studies of developing economies	1 = if the study target is developing economies, 0 = otherwise	0.690	1	0.463
Studies of emerging markets	1 = if the study target is post-communist emerging markets, 0 = otherwise	0.083	0	0.275
Financial depth	1 = if the financial variable is financial depth, 0 = otherwise	0.163	0	0.369
Private credit to GDP	1 = if the financial variable is private credit to GDP, 0 = otherwise	0.280	0	0.449
Bank credit to GDP	1 = if the financial variable is bank credit to GDP, 0 = otherwise	0.119	0	0.324
Comprehensive financial development index	1 = if the financial variable is comprehensive financial development index, 0 = otherwise	0.106	0	0.308
Other financial development indices	1 = if a financial variable other than the eight variables above is used, 0 = otherwise	0.246	0	0.431
Financial market liberalization	1 = if the financial variable is financial market liberalization, 0 = otherwise	0.015	0	0.121
Stock market liberalization	1 = if the financial variable is stock market liberalization, 0 = otherwise	0.008	0	0.089
Comprehensive financial liberalization index	1 = if the financial variable is comprehensive financial liberalization index, 0 = otherwise	0.007	0	0.084
Other financial liberalization indices	1 = if a financial variable other than the eight variables above is used, 0 = otherwise	0.055	0	0.228
Number of target countries	Total number of target countries	22.855	15	27.326
Panel data	1 = if panel data is employed for empirical analysis, 0 = otherwise	0.800	1	0.400
Cross-sectional data	1 = if cross-sectional data is employed for empirical analysis, 0 = otherwise	0.031	0	0.175
Time-series data	1 = if time-series data is employed for empirical analysis, 0 = otherwise	0.168	0	0.374
Average year of estimation	Average year of estimation period	1994.543	1995.5	10.255
Length of estimation	Years of estimation period	27.925	27	14.101
Non-OLS	1 = if an estimator other than OLS is used for estimation, 0 = otherwise	0.781	1	0.414
OLS	1 = if an OLS estimator is used for estimation, 0 = otherwise	0.219	0	0.414
Control of endogeneity	1 = if endogeneity between growth and financial variables is controlled for, 0 = otherwise	0.053	0	0.225
Lagged	1 = if the financial variable is lagged, 0 = otherwise	0.120	0	0.325
Macroeconomic stability	1 = if the estimation simultaneously controls for macroeconomic stability, 0 = otherwise	0.442	0	0.497
Political stability	1 = if the estimation simultaneously controls for political stability, 0 = otherwise	0.039	0	0.194
Trade openness	1 = if the estimation simultaneously controls for trade openness, 0 = otherwise	0.517	1	0.500
Investment	1 = if the estimation simultaneously controls for investment including capital formation, 0 = otherwise	0.378	0	0.485
Education	1 = if the estimation simultaneously controls for education level, 0 = otherwise	0.342	0	0.474
Institutional quality	1 = if the estimation simultaneously controls for institutional quality, 0 = otherwise	0.133	0	0.340
Financial crisis	1 = if the estimation simultaneously controls for financial crisis, 0 = otherwise	0.090	0	0.286
SE	Standard error of the partial correlation coefficient	0.087	0.071	0.052

The variables of studies of advanced economies, financial depth, panel data, and non-OLS are default categories.

Table A2. Meta-regression analysis of model uncertainty and multicollinearity for the selection of moderators.

Estimator	Bayesian model averaging (BMA)				Weighted-average least squared (WALS)
Meta-independent variables/Model	[1]				[2]
	Coef.	S.E.	t	PIP	Coef.	S.E.	t
Focus regressors
Studies of developing economies	−0.0061	0.0084	−0.72	1.00	−0.0031	0.0083	−0.38
Studies of emerging markets	−0.0063	0.0134	−0.47	1.00	−0.0080	0.0135	−0.59
SE	−0.2688	0.1011	−2.66	1.00	−0.2776	0.0875	−3.17
Auxiliary regressors
Private credit to GDP	−0.0006	0.0031	−0.19	0.05	−0.0133	0.0088	−1.51
Bank credit to GDP	−0.0447	0.0105	−4.26	1.00	−0.0410	0.0112	−3.67
Comprehensive financial development index	0.0486	0.0108	4.48	1.00	0.0365	0.0117	3.14
Other financial development indices	0.0001	0.0015	0.09	0.02	−0.0033	0.0091	−0.37
Financial market liberalization	0.0000	0.0030	−0.01	0.01	−0.0093	0.0247	−0.38
Stock market liberalization	−0.0004	0.0054	−0.07	0.02	−0.0345	0.0346	−1.00
Comprehensive financial liberalization index	−0.0003	0.0053	−0.06	0.01	−0.0227	0.0346	−0.65
Other financial liberalization indices	−0.0002	0.0026	−0.09	0.02	−0.0149	0.0149	−1.00
Number of target countries	−0.0008	0.0001	−5.57	1.00	−0.0007	0.0001	−5.21
Cross-sectional data	0.1105	0.0195	5.67	1.00	0.0888	0.0178	4.99
Time-series data	0.0407	0.0182	2.24	0.90	0.0476	0.0130	3.66
Average year of estimation	−0.0001	0.0004	−0.32	0.12	−0.0010	0.0004	−2.42
Length of estimation	−0.0001	0.0003	−0.29	0.10	−0.0009	0.0003	−2.71
OLS	0.0327	0.0095	3.44	0.98	0.0261	0.0076	3.43
Control of endogeneity	0.0090	0.0178	0.51	0.24	0.0201	0.0144	1.40
Lagged	−0.0468	0.0105	−4.46	1.00	−0.0395	0.0097	−4.06
Macroeconomic stability	0.0000	0.0009	0.02	0.01	0.0018	0.0075	0.24
Political stability	0.0032	0.0112	0.29	0.09	0.0331	0.0153	2.17
Trade openness	−0.0545	0.0067	−8.12	1.00	−0.0461	0.0074	−6.19
Investment	0.0000	0.0008	0.01	0.01	0.0023	0.0062	0.37
Education	0.0239	0.0111	2.16	0.89	0.0261	0.0071	3.70
Institutional quality	−0.0145	0.0158	−0.92	0.51	−0.0225	0.0089	−2.53
Financial crisis	0.0450	0.0129	3.49	0.98	0.0419	0.0101	4.13
K	6135				6135

See Appendix Table A1 for the definitions and descriptive statistics of meta-independent variables. The estimate of the intercept is omitted. S.E. and PIP denote standard errors and posterior inclusion probability, respectively. In Model [1], the variables of studies of developing economies and studies of emerging markets as well as standard errors of partial correlation coefficients (SE) are included in the estimation as focus regressors. Therefore, the PIP of these key variables is 1.00.

Table A3. Meta-regression analysis with all moderators.

Estimator (Analytical weight in brackets)^a	Cluster-robust WLS [Precision]		Cluster-robust WLS [Sample size]		Cluster-robust WLS [Study size]		Multilevel mixed-effects RML		Cluster-robust fixed-effects panel LSDV
Meta-independent variable (Default)/Model	[1]		[2]		[3]		[4]		[5] ^b
Study type (Studies of advanced economies)
Studies of developing economies	0.0053		−0.0014		−0.0176		0.0087		0.0136
	(0.022)		(0.017)		(0.026)		(0.023)		(0.026)
Studies of emerging markets	−0.0237		−0.0317		−0.0567		0.0103		0.0226
	(0.028)		(0.025)		(0.042)		(0.062)		(0.083)
Financial variable type (Financial depth)
Private credit to GDP	−0.0137		−0.0135		−0.0665**		0.0311**		0.0394**
	(0.029)		(0.020)		(0.030)		(0.015)		(0.016)
Bank credit to GDP	−0.0540*		−0.0430*		−0.0681**		−0.0215		−0.0171
	(0.028)		(0.024)		(0.034)		(0.017)		(0.017)
Comprehensive financial development index	0.0314		0.0134		0.0161		0.0721**		0.0746*
	(0.035)		(0.028)		(0.037)		(0.033)		(0.039)
Other financial development indices	−0.0039		0.0007		−0.0386		0.0514***		0.0575***
	(0.027)		(0.021)		(0.026)		(0.016)		(0.017)
Financial market liberalization	0.0297		0.0634		−0.1041		−0.0567		−0.0540
	(0.101)		(0.098)		(0.085)		(0.072)		(0.086)
Stock market liberalization	−0.0234		0.0295		−0.0012		−0.1614		−0.1672
	(0.090)		(0.065)		(0.069)		(0.126)		(0.128)
Comprehensive financial liberalization index	−0.0427		−0.0267		−0.1043		0.0120		0.0408
	(0.068)		(0.063)		(0.155)		(0.075)		(0.094)
Other financial liberalization variables	−0.0233		−0.0086		−0.0350		0.0187		0.0199
	(0.052)		(0.044)		(0.042)		(0.082)		(0.090)
Composition of target countries
Number of target countries	−0.00057*		−0.0002		−0.0006*		−0.00120***		−0.00185***
	(0.0003)		(0.0002)		(0.000)		(0.0004)		(0.0006)
Data type (Panel data)
Cross-sectional data	0.0278		−0.0594		0.1423*		0.1357***		0.1350**
	(0.068)		(0.041)		(0.073)		(0.049)		(0.054)
Time-series data	0.0941		0.0735		0.0996*		0.0457		0.0048
	(0.059)		(0.049)		(0.052)		(0.053)		(0.076)
Estimation period
Average year of estimation	−0.0001		0.0008		−0.0002		−0.0006		−0.0007
	(0.001)		(0.001)		(0.001)		(0.001)		(0.001)
Length of estimation	−0.0010		−0.0003		−0.0009		0.0002		0.0004
	(0.001)		(0.001)		(0.001)		(0.000)		(0.000)
Estimator (Estimators other than OLS)
OLS	0.0423*		0.0386*		0.0382		0.0306		0.0301
	(0.025)		(0.022)		(0.033)		(0.026)		(0.031)
Control of endogeneity (No control)
Control of endogeneity	0.0432		0.0395		−0.0240		0.0076		0.0061
	(0.037)		(0.032)		(0.039)		(0.021)		(0.024)
Other characteristics of the financial variable
Lagged	−0.0372		−0.0214		−0.1033***		−0.0256		−0.0061
	(0.029)		(0.026)		(0.034)		(0.039)		(0.048)
Selection of control variables
Macroeconomic stability	−0.0094		−0.0156		−0.0071		−0.0093		−0.0118
	(0.020)		(0.017)		(0.021)		(0.011)		(0.011)
Political stability	0.0240		0.0163		0.0268		−0.0015		−0.0254
	(0.031)		(0.028)		(0.034)		(0.020)		(0.022)
Trade openness	−0.0446**		−0.0237		−0.0141		−0.0108		0.0095
	(0.019)		(0.017)		(0.023)		(0.012)		(0.012)
Investment	−0.0201		−0.0292*		0.0152		0.0116		−0.0006
	(0.020)		(0.017)		(0.021)		(0.014)		(0.018)
Education	0.0200		0.0184		0.0366*		0.0089		−0.0232
	(0.019)		(0.017)		(0.021)		(0.017)		(0.025)
Institutional quality	−0.0112		0.0066		−0.0312		−0.0173		−0.0120
	(0.031)		(0.024)		(0.029)		(0.014)		(0.013)
Financial crisis	0.0542		0.0099		0.0371		0.0111		0.0075
	(0.041)		(0.030)		(0.033)		(0.024)		(0.028)
SE	−0.4144		−0.2562		−0.5244*		−0.6333		−0.7673
	(0.332)		(0.299)		(0.313)		(0.437)		(0.541)
Intercept	0.4053		−1.5304		0.6164		1.2574		1.4462
	(2.382)		(2.204)		(2.281)		(1.298)		(1.879)
K	6135		6135		6135		6135		6135
R^2	0.052		0.045		0.051		-		0.010

Figures in parentheses beneath the regression coefficients are robust standard errors. ***, **, and * denote statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively. See Appendix Table A1 for the definitions and descriptive statistics of meta-independent variables.

^aPrecision: inverse of the standard error; Sample size: degree of freedom; Study size: inverse of the number of reported estimates

^bHausman test: χ2 = 38.60, p = 0.0532

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