Bondi to Byron: divergent pathways in NSW’s Metropolitan and regional rental markets during the COVID-19 pandemic

Figures & data

Figure 1. Total monthly overseas arrivals and short-term visitor arrivals, Australia Jan 2018 to Jan 2022. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia December 2022.

Figure 2. Quarterly net internal migration greater capital cities combined, Australia Q1 2016 to Q1 2021. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional internal migration estimates, provisional March 2021.

Table 1. 6-month study periods with respect to important COVID lockdown/reopening dates.

Period 1 – Pre-COVID		Period 2 – Onset of COVID		Period 3 – Recovery
2019–2020		2020		2020–2021
Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1

Figure 3. Quarterly Rental Price for GSyd and RNSW. Source: APM rental data.

Figure 4. Rental price % change between periods, Q4 2019 to Q1 2021. (a) Greater Sydney: SA3 Areas; (b) Rest of NSW: SA3 Areas. Source: APM rental data.

Figure 5. Changes in Airbnb activity, Greater Sydney and Rest of NSW Q1 2019 to Q2 2021 (N = 73,937 total Airbnb listings). Source: AirDNA Airbnb data.

Figure 6. Rental supply changes by share of Airbnb lettings (deciles), Greater Sydney and Rest of NSW Q4 2019 to Q1 2021 (N = 73,937 total Airbnb listings). Source: APM rental data, AirDNA Airbnb data.

Figure 7. Airbnb share of rental market (left hand) and vacancy rates for LTR’s (right hand) for selected metropolitan and urban vacancy rate areas. (a) Greater Sydney; (b) Rest of NSW (selected hotspots). Source: REINSW, AirDNA Airbnb data

Figure 8. Long-term rental prices changes by share of Airbnb lettings (deciles), Greater Sydney and Rest of NSW Q4 2019 to Q1 2021 (N = 73,937 total Airbnb listings). Source: AirDNA Airbnb data

Figure 9. Comparison of changes in Airbnb listings against changes in LTR rental prices, January 2019 to April 2020.

Figure 10. Rental price and vacancy rate quarterly movements in case study areas. (a) Eastern Suburbs North. Source: NSW Rental Bond data; (b) Byron Bay. Source: NSW Rental Bond data.

Table 2. Airbnb activity and rental price movements in case study area.

a) Eastern Suburbs North.
	Eastern Suburbs North
	Airbnb Share (%)			Median Price ($)			Median Price (% Change)
SA2 Name	P1	P2	P3	P1	P2	P3	P1 – P2	P2 – P3
Bondi – Tamarama – Bronte	24.7%	20.4%	19.1%	750	680	700	−9.3	2.9
Bondi Beach – North Bondi	32.1%	27.7%	25.7%	750	670	695	−10.7	3.7
Bondi Junction – Waverly	13.2%	11.0%	9.5%	730	650	650	−11.0	0.0
Double Bay – Bellevue Hill	7.5%	6.5%	6.0%	745	665	660	−10.7	−0.8
Paddington – Moore Park	9.8%	8.8%	7.7%	695	580	510	−16.5	−12.1
Woollahra	7.9%	6.6%	6.2%	750	675	645	−10.0	−4.4
b) Richmond Valley Coastal.
	Byron Bay
	Airbnb Share (%)			Median Price ($)			Median Price (% Change)
SA2 Name	P1	P2	P3	P1	P2	P3	P1 – P2	P2 – P3
Bangalow	23.6%	21.8%	22.9%	745	750	850	0.7	13.3
Brunswick Heads - Ocean Shores	15.2%	15.4%	14.7%	540	550	795	1.9	44.5
Byron Bay	40.4%	39.6%	41.4%	750	700	950	−6.7	35.7
Lennox Head - Skennars Head	10.9%	10.2%	12.5%	620	590	700	−4.8	18.6
Mullumbimby	13.3%	12.2%	12.4%	630	590	695	−6.3	17.8
Bangalow	23.6%	21.8%	22.9%	745	750	850	0.7	13.3

Table 3. Summary of rental yield and investor activity in selected higher-value GSyd and RNSW areas

a) Rental yield movements.
	Rental Yields – Houses
		Median Price						Rental Yield
		Rental (Annual)			House			%			% Change
	SA3 Name	P1	P2	P3	P1 (‘000)	P2 (‘000)	P3 (‘000)	P1	P2	P3	P1 – P2	P2 – P3
METRO	Eastern Suburbs – North	1,350	1,200	1,200	3,020	3,200	3,600	2.3	2.0	1.7	−0.4	−0.2
	Sydney Inner City	850	800	780	1,580	1,575	1,674	2.8	2.6	2.4	−0.2	−0.2
	Ryde – Hunters Hill	630	650	620	1,675	1,609	1,800	2.0	2.1	1.8	0.1	−0.3
	Manly	1,395	1,295	1,400	2,525	2,725	3,080	2.9	2.5	2.4	−0.4	−0.1
	North Sydney – Mosman	1,200	1,095	1,100	2,910	3,000	3,350	2.1	1.9	1.7	−0.2	−0.2
REGIONAL	Byron Bay	593	595	680	770	820	910	4.0	3.8	3.9	−0.2	0.1
	Coffs Harbour	450	465	510	520	560	620	4.5	4.3	4.3	−0.2	0.0
	Kiama – Shellharbour	500	500	525	669	715	744	3.9	3.6	3.7	−0.3	0.0
	South Coast	470	500	700	530	550	630	4.6	4.7	5.8	0.1	1.0
	Port Macquarie	430	450	480	550	560	609	4.1	4.2	4.1	0.1	−0.1
b) Investor buying activity.
	Investor Buying – Houses
		Properties Bought						Investor Buying
		Total			Listed as Rentals			%			% Change
	SA3 Name	P1	P2	P3	P1 + 6	P2 + 6	P3 + 6	P1	P2	P3	P1 – P2	P2 – P3
METRO	Eastern Suburbs – North	693	655	892	98	75	124	14.1	11.5	13.9	−2.7	2.4
	Sydney Inner City	373	424	490	170	168	199	45.6	39.6	40.6	−6.0	1.0
	Ryde – Hunters Hill	538	543	738	74	67	111	13.8	12.3	15.0	−1.4	2.7
	Manly	224	214	231	29	22	22	12.9	10.3	9.5	−2.7	−0.8
	North Sydney – Mosman	334	287	413	69	62	73	20.7	21.6	17.7	0.9	−3.9
REGIONAL	Byron Bay	592	604	766	114	86	138	19.3	14.2	18.0	−5.0	3.8
	Coffs Harbour	693	655	892	98	75	158	14.1	11.5	17.7	−2.7	6.3
	Kiama – Shellharbour	811	780	899	116	80	149	14.3	10.3	16.6	−4.0	6.3
	South Coast	617	697	992	82	83	162	13.3	11.9	16.3	−1.4	4.4
	Port Macquarie	730	738	959	104	89	163	14.2	12.1	17.0	−2.2	4.9

Table

Study Area	Vacancy Rate Area	LGA’s
Greater Sydney	Inner Sydney	Ashfield Botany Bay Lane Cove Leichhardt Marrickville Mosman North Sydney Randwick Sydney Waverly Woollahra
	Middle Sydney	Auburn Bankstown Burwood Canterbury Canada Bay Hunters Hill Hurstville Kogarah Ku-ring-gai Manly Parramatta Rockdale Ryde Strathfield Willoughby
	Outer Sydney	Baulkham Hills Blacktown Blue Mountains Camden Campbelltown Fairfield Gosford Hawkesbury Holroyd Hornby Liverpool Penrith Pittwater Sutherland Warringah Wollondilly Wyong
Rest of NSW Hotspots	Northern Rivers	Ballina Byron Kyogle Lismore Richmond Valley Tweed
	Coffs Harbour	Bellingen Clarence Valley Coffs Harbour
	Mid-North Coast	Gloucester Great Lakes Greater Taree Kempsey Nambucca Port Macquarie
	South Coast	Bega Valley Eurobodalla
	Central West	Bathurst Regional Blayney Cabonne Lithgow Mid-Western Regional Oberon Orange