Figures & data
Figure 1. Modelled survival probability of chicks. The figure contrasts models with a gradual drop in survival over time or recapture occasion (solid lines) with those assuming a tipping point at recapture occasion τ = 1, 2, or 3 (dashed lines).
Figure 2. Estimates of survival for each recapture occasion according to crèche from a time-dependent model (model 1). Symbols: ▪ = crèche A (large and early formed colony), ▪ = crèche B (small and early formed colony), x = crèche C (small and late-formed colony).
Figure 3. Change in model deviance as a function of the tipping point, τ. In these models, survival is constant until the occasion τ after which it is assumed to abate linearly. The tipping point, τ is >1 only in crèche A where τ = 3. Crèches A, B and C are indicated by symbols.
Figure 4. Apparent survival of chicks according to crèche in Sfax salinas. Crèches. A and B are the early crèches. Estimates are from the consensual model (model 11, ). Crèches A, B and C are indicated by symbols.
