SURVEY OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Figures & data

TABLE 1. Components of GDP Growth (2000 prices; % p.a. year on year)

	Mar-07	Jun-07	Sep-07	Dec-07	Mar-08	Jun-08
Gross domestic product	6.1	6.4	6.5	6.3	6.3	6.4
Non-oil & gas GDP	6.7	7.1	6.9	7.0	6.8	6.9
By expenditure
Household consumption	4.7	4.7	5.1	5.6	5.7	5.3
Government consumption	3.7	3.8	3.3	2.0	4.7	2.2
Investment	7.0	6.9	10.4	12.1	15.4	12.8
Building construction	8.4	7.7	8.3	9.9	7.9	8.0
Machinery & equipment	12.6	24.1	26.3	25.7	45.2	28.2
Transport	−25.8	−28.6	−1.1	13.5	53.7	39.9
Exports	8.1	9.8	6.9	7.3	15.5	16.1
Imports	8.5	6.5	7.0	13.6	17.8	16.7
By sector
Tradables	3.4	4.7	4.8	2.5	3.6	3.4
Agriculture, livestock, forestry	−1.7	4.7	7.6	3.1	6.1	4.6
& fisheries
Mining & quarrying	6.2	3.2	1.0	−2.1	−1.9	−0.9
Manufacturing	5.2	5.1	4.5	3.8	4.2	4.1
Excluding oil & gas	5.8	5.6	4.6	4.6	4.5	4.4
Non-tradables	9.0	8.2	8.3	10.0	9.1	9.5
Electricity, gas & water supply	8.2	10.2	11.3	11.8	12.6	11.2
Construction	8.4	7.7	8.3	9.9	7.9	8.0
Trade, hotels & restaurants	9.2	7.6	7.9	9.1	7.1	7.9
Transport	−0.0	0.8	4.4	5.6	9.4	3.5
Communications	31.0	28.8	26.6	31.7	31.7	36.7
Financial, rental & business	8.1	7.6	7.6	8.6	8.2	8.7
services
Other services	7.0	7.0	5.2	7.2	5.6	6.5
Source: CEIC Asia Database.

FIGURE 1.  Growth of Dollar Value of Trade^a (% p.a.)

FIGURE 2.  Composite Share Price Index (CSPI) and Exchange Rate

FIGURE 3.  Selected Currency Movements against the Dollar, 2007–08 (2 Jan 2007 = 100)

FIGURE 4.  External Exposure of Selected Asian Countries, 2007 (Exports:GDP,%)

FIGURE 5.  Indonesia's Exports by Major Destination, 2007 (% of total)

FIGURE 6.  Inflation, Interest Rates and Money Growth^a (% p.a.)

TABLE 2. Projected Budget Outcome 2008 and Draft Budgets 2009^a (Rp trillion)

	2008		2009			Change^b
	Projected Actual	% of GDP	OriginalDraft	Revised Draft^c	% of GDP	(% of GDP)
REVENUE AND GRANTS	1,007.0	21.5	1,124.0	1,022.6	19.3	−2.2
Taxes	641.0	13.7	748.9	726.3	13.7	0.0
Income tax	325.7	7.0	384.3	364.4	6.9	−0.1
Oil & gas	70.4	1.5	85.6	65.7	1.2	−0.3
Non-oil & gas	255.3	5.5	298.7	298.7	5.6	0.1
Value added tax	199.5	4.3	245.4	245.4	4.6	0.3
Land & buildings tax	25.5	0.5	28.9	28.9	0.5	0.0
Taxes on property sales	5.5	0.1	7.3	7.3	0.1	0.0
Excise	46.7	1.0	47.5	47.5	0.9	−0.1
Other taxes	3.3	0.1	4.3	4.3	0.1	0.0
International trade taxes	34.7	0.7	31.3	28.5	0.5	−0.2
Non-tax revenues	363.1	7.8	374.1	295.4	5.6	−2.2
Natural resource revenues	264.8	5.7	288.4	212.6	4.0	−1.7
Oil & gas revenues	254.9	5.4	278.9	203.1	3.8	−1.6
Oil	209.9	4.5	221.4	159.3	3.0	−1.5
Natural gas	45.0	1.0	57.5	43.7	0.8	−0.2
Non-oil & gas revenues	9.9	0.2	9.5	9.5	0.2	0.0
State enterprise dividends	35.0	0.7	33.0	33.0	0.6	−0.1
Other non-tax revenues	58.1	1.2	46.8	44.0	0.8	−0.4
Income of public service agencies	5.1	0.1	5.8	5.8	0.1	0.0
Grants	3.0	0.1	0.9	0.9	0.0	−0.1
EXPENDITURES	1,097.6	23.4	1,203.3	1,122.2	21.2	−2.2
Central government	804.0	17.2	867.2	818.2	15.5	−1.7
Ministries & agencies	290.1	6.2	312.6	312.6	5.9	−0.3
Other	513.9	11.0	554.5	505.6	9.5	−1.5
Interest payments	97.0	2.1	109.3	110.3	2.1	0.0
Subsidies	327.8	7.0	323.3	227.2	4.3	−2.7
Energy	268.7	5.7	258.0	161.8	3.1	–2.6
Fuel	180.3	3.9	179.1	101.4	1.9	−2.0
Electricity	88.4	1.9	78.9	60.4	1.1	−0.8
Non-energy	59.1	1.3	65.4	65.4	1.2	−0.1
Other expenditure	43.4	0.9	54.3	100.4	1.9	1.0
Uncategorised^d	45.7	0.9	67.5	67.7	1.3	0.4
Transfers to regional	293.6	6.3	336.2	303.9	5.7	−0.6
governments
Equalisation funds	279.6	6.0	327.1	295.6	5.6	−0.4
Revenue sharing	78.9	1.7	102.8	89.9	1.7	0.0
General funds allocation	179.5	3.8	201.9	183.4	3.5	−0.3
Special funds allocation	21.2	0.5	22.3	22.3	0.4	−0.1
Special autonomy & adjustment	14.0	0.3	9.1	8.3	0.2	−0.1
funds
DEFICIT	−90.6	−1.9	−79.4	−99.6	−1.9	0.0
FINANCING	90.6	1.9	79.4	99.6	1.9	0.0
Domestic financing	105.6	2.3	93.0	110.7	2.1	−0.2
Domestic banks	−11.7	−0.2	9.8	9.8	0.2	0.4
Domestic non-bank	117.3	2.5	83.1	100.9	1.9	−0.6
Privatisation (net)	0.5	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0
Asset sales	3.9	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.0	−0.1
Government bonds	115.8	2.5	94.7	112.5	2.1	−0.4
Government investment funds	−2.8	−0.1	−13.1	−13.1	−0.2	−0.1
Foreign financing (net)	−15.1	−0.3	−13.6	−11.1	−0.2	0.1
Foreign borrowing (gross)	47.2	1.0	46.0	48.5	0.9	−0.1
Program loans	25.4	0.5	21.2	23.7	0.4	−0.1
Project loans	21.8	0.5	24.9	24.9	0.5	0.0
Less amortisation	−62.3	−1.3	−59.6	-59.6	−1.1	0.2
	2008		2009
	Assumed	Projected Outcome	Original	Revised
ASSUMPTIONS
GDP (current prices) (Rp trillion)	4,484.4	4,681.9	5,295.3	5,295.3
Economic growth (%)	6.4	6.2	6.2	6.2
Average inflation (% p.a.)	6.5	11.4	6.5	6.5
Average exchange rate (Rp/$)	9,100	9,250	9,100	9,100
Average interest rate 3-month SBI (% p.a.)	7.5	9.1	8.5	8.5
Average oil price ($/barrel)	95.0	127.2	130.0	100.0
Average oil production (million barrels/day)	0.927	0.927	0.950	0.950
^a On 14 October 2008 the government again modified the budget assumptions for 2009 (see footnote 7). The new assumptions are: economic growth 5.5–6.1%; average infl ation 7.0%; average exchange rate Rp 9,500/$; average interest rate 8.5%; average oil price $85/barrel. However, this table and the accompanying analysis are based on the earlier assumptions.
^b ‘Change’ refers to the change from the projected 2008 outcome to the revised draft budget for 2009.
^c An explanation of revisions is contained in Departemen Keuangan (Ministry of Finance), ‘Dokumen Tambahan Nota Keuangan dan Rancangan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Tahun Angga-ran 2009 [Supplementary Documents to the Financial Note and Draft Budget for 2009]’.
^d Row items listed in the original document under ‘Central government: Other’ do not sum to the total amount shown, apparently because not all items in this category are included.
Source: Departemen Keuangan (Ministry of Finance), Data Pokok APBN 2008–2009 [Basic Data for the 2008 and 2009 Budgets].

TABLE 3. Central Government Spending by Function, 2008–09 (Rp trillion)

	2008	2009	Change
	Projected actual	Revised draft	(%)
General services	625.2	565.0	−9.6
Education	58.0	115.2	98.7
Economy	57.2	58.9	2.9
Housing & public facilities	13.0	18.4	41.9
Health	16.0	17.5	9.3
Public order & security	12.3	15.7	27.3
Defence	10.5	13.8	31.3
Environment	6.4	7.8	22.6
Social security	3.3	3.4	1.6
Tourism & culture	1.4	1.6	15.7
Religion	0.8	1.0	28.3
Total	804.0	818.2	1.8
Source: As for table 2.

TABLE 4. Indicative Variable Costs for Various Plant Types, Java, 2007

Plant Type	Fuel Type	Variable Cost
		Rp/kWh^a	Cents/kWh^a
Thermal	Coal	185	2.03
Gas turbine (combined cycle)	Gas	225	2.47
Gas turbine (open cycle)	Gas	290	3.19
Geothermal	Geothermal	520	5.71
Thermal	MFO^a	1,115	12.25
Gas turbine (combined cycle)	HSD^b	1,430	15.71
Gas turbine (open cycle)	HSD^b	2,420	26.60
a kWh = kilowatt hours.
^b MFO = marine fuel oil.
^c HSD = high-speed distillate (diesel fuel).
Source: Ministry of Finance and authors’ calculations using an assumed exchange rate of Rp 9,100/$.

FIGURE 7.  Poverty Incidence (% of population below poverty line)