Survey of recent developments

Figures & data

FIGURE 1  Bank Century: Cumulative Deposit Insurance Corporation Disbursements (Rp trillion)

Source: BPK (2009).

TABLE 1a Components of GDP Growth^a (2000 prices; % year on year)

	Sep-08	Dec-08	Mar-09	Jun-09	Sep-09	Dec-09
Gross domestic product (GDP)	6.2	5.3	4.5	4.1	4.2	5.4
GDP excluding petroleum & gas	6.7	5.7	4.9	4.5	4.5	5.8
By expenditure
Private consumption	5.3	4.8	6.0	4.8	4.7	4.0
Government consumption	14.1	16.4	19.2	17.0	10.3	17.0
Investment	12.3	9.4	3.5	2.4	3.2	4.2
Construction	7.8	5.9	6.2	6.1	7.7	8.0
Machinery & equipment	24.5	15.9	−8.6	−11.5	−12.7	−3.9
Transport	40.6	38.3	9.6	−0.6	−2.1	−14.6
Other	9.5	6.2	−4.2	−2.6	1.8	3.0
Exports	10.6	2.0	−18.7	−15.5	−7.8	3.7
Imports	11.1	−3.7	−24.4	−21.0	−14.7	1.6
By sector
Tradables	3.7	2.8	2.9	2.2	2.7	4.5
Agriculture, livestock, forestry & fisheries	3.2	5.1	5.9	2.9	3.3	4.6
Mining & quarrying	2.3	2.4	2.6	3.4	6.2	5.2
Manufacturing	4.3	1.8	1.5	1.5	1.3	4.2
Excluding petroleum & gas	4.9	2.1	1.9	1.8	1.5	4.9
Non-tradables	8.9	7.6	6.1	5.9	5.6	6.3
Electricity, gas & water supply	10.4	9.3	11.2	15.3	14.5	14.0
Construction	7.8	5.9	6.2	6.1	7.7	8.0
Trade, hotels & restaurants	7.6	5.5	0.6	0.0	−0.2	4.2
Transport	−1.0	−1.0	2.0	5.7	7.4	6.7
Communications	33.5	33.5	30.3	26.6	23.7	16.3
Financial, rental & business services	8.6	7.4	6.3	5.3	4.9	3.8
Services	7.0	5.9	6.7	7.2	6.0	5.7
^aSome data from earlier periods have been revised in the latest estimates.Source: CEIC Asia Database.

TABLE 1b Components of GDP Growth^a (2000 prices; seasonally adjusted; % quarter on quarter)

	Sep-08	Dec-08	Mar-09	Jun-09	Sep-09	Dec-09
Gross domestic product (GDP)	1.3	1.0	1.2	1.1	1.1	1.4
GDP excluding petroleum & gas	1.4	0.9	1.2	1.2	1.3	1.6
By expenditure
Private consumption	1.2	1.2	1.9	0.4	1.1	0.6
Government consumption	4.4	3.8	4.1	3.7	3.3	3.8
Not seasonally adjusted	5.6	25.6	−28.7	23.7	−0.4	33.2
Investment	1.8	1.0	−1.0	0.5	2.7	1.9
Construction	1.3	1.7	1.6	1.8	2.2	1.9
Machinery & equipment	9.6	−7.8	−11.1	−1.4	8.1	1.4
Transport	7.5	7.8	−13.3	2.2	4.2	−4.3
Other	−1.3	−0.9	−2.9	2.6	3.2	0.2
Exports	−1.5	−4.4	−15.2	5.9	7.5	7.4
Imports	−2.9	−8.7	−14.4	4.4	4.6	8.2
By sector
Tradables	0.7	0.5	0.8	0.7	0.9	1.0
Agriculture, livestock, forestry & fisheries	1.1	1.0	1.3	0.6	1.0	1.0
Mining & quarrying	0.6	0.8	1.1	1.2	1.9	−0.4
Manufacturing	1.1	−1.3	0.8	0.9	0.9	1.4
Excluding petroleum & gas	1.3	−1.8	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2
Non-tradables	1.9	1.3	0.8	1.8	1.6	1.9
Electricity, gas & water supply	2.6	3.1	3.3	3.8	3.5	3.5
Construction	1.3	1.7	1.6	1.8	2.2	1.9
Trade, hotels & restaurants	2.5	−1.1	−3.4	2.1	2.2	3.3
Transport	−0.1	1.4	2.0	2.3	1.5	0.8
Communications	8.0	7.4	4.0	5.0	5.5	1.0
Financial, rental & business services	1.8	2.0	0.8	0.6	1.4	0.9
Services	1.5	1.6	1.4	2.3	0.6	1.3
^aSome data from earlier periods have been revised in the latest estimates.Source: CEIC Asia Database.

FIGURE 2a  Exports ($ values, 3-month rolling sum, July 2008 = 100)

Source: CEIC Asia Database.

FIGURE 2b  Imports ($ values, 3-month rolling sum, July 2008 = 100)

Source: CEIC Asia Database.

TABLE 2 Budgets for 2009 and 2010 (Rp trillion)

	2009			2010
	Revised Budget	Actual	Difference (%)	Budget	% GDP
REVENUE AND GRANTS	872.6	866.8	−0.7	911.5	15.1
Revenue	871.6	865.7	−0.7	910.1	15.0
Tax	652.1	641.2	−1.7	729.2	12.1
Non-tax	219.5	224.5	2.3	180.9	3.0
Grants	1.0	1.1	10.9	1.4	0.0
EXPENDITURES	1,005.7	954.0	−5.1	1,009.5	16.7
Central government	696.1	645.4	−7.3	699.7	11.6
Personnel	133.7			161.7	2.7
Goods & services	87.0			100.2	1.7
Capital expenditures	74.3			76.9	1.3
Interest payments	110.1			115.6	1.9
Subsidies	160.0			144.4	2.4
Social assistance	77.8			69.1	1.1
Other expenditure	53.3			31.8	0.5
Transfers to regional governments	309.6	308.6	−0.3	309.8	5.1
DEFICIT	133.0	87.2	−34.4	98.0	1.6
% of GDP	2.5 ^a	1.6		1.6
FINANCING	133.0	125.2	−5.9	98.1	1.6
Domestic financing (net)	144.8	142.6	−1.5	107.9	1.8
Foreign financing (net)	−11.8	−17.4	47.7	−9.8	−0.2
Foreign gross drawings	70.7			57.6	1.0
Amortisation	−69.5			−58.8	−1.0
Loan rescheduling	−13.0			−8.6	−0.1
UNSPENT FUNDS		38.0
ASSUMPTIONS FOR 2010 BUDGET
GDP
Growth (%)				5.0
Nominal value (Rp trillion)				6,050
Inflation (% p.a.)				5.0
Exchange rate (Rp/$)				10,000
3-month SBI rate, average (%)^b				6.5
Oil price ($/barrel)				60
Oil production (‘000 barrels/day)				965
^aThe revised budget deficit is based on MOF (2009a). MOF (2009b) reported a revised deficit of 2.4%. ^bSBI = Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (Bank Indonesia Certificate). Source: MOF (2009a, 2009b).

FIGURE 3  Monetary Policy and Inflation (% p.a.)

Source: CEIC Asia Database.

FIGURE 4  Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) and Exchange Rate

Source: Indonesia Stock Exchange; Pacific Exchange Rate Service.

TABLE 3 Central Government Debt Outstanding

	2000		2005		2009^a
	($ billion)	% of total	($ billion)	% of total	($ billion)	% of total
Borrowings	61.1	47.2	63.1	47.2	64.9	38.4
Bilateral	36.5	28.2	42.2	31.6	41.2	24.3
Multilateral	20.6	15.9	18.8	14.1	21.5	12.7
Commercial	3.1	2.4	1.8	1.4	2.2	1.3
Suppliers	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
Other	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
Securities	68.4	52.8	70.5	52.8	104.2	61.6
Foreign denominated	0.0	0.0	3.5	2.6	15.2	9.0
Rupiah denominated	68.4	52.8	67.0	50.2	89.0	52.6
Total outstanding debt	129.5	100.0	133.6	100.0	169.1	100.0
GDP	145.6		290.7		574.6
Debt/GDP (%)	88.9		46.0		29.4
Memo item
Exchange rate (Rp/$)	9,535		9,830		9,400
^aThe 2009 data are for October. Source: MOF (2010).

BPK (Badan Pemeriksa Keuangan, Supreme Audit Agency) 2009 Laporan Hasil Pemerik-saan Investigasi atas Kasus PT Bank Century Tbk [Report of Investigation Findings in the Bank Century Case] , BPK , Jakarta , 20 November .

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MOF (Ministry of Finance) 2009a ‘Data pokok APBN 2005–2010 [Principal state budget data, 2005–2010]’ , MOF , Jakarta , available at < http://www.fiskal.depkeu.go.id/webbkf/download/datapokok-ind2010.pdf > .

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MOF (Ministry of Finance) 2009b ‘Laporan perkembangan makro dan realisasi APBN-P 2009 [Report on macro developments and realisation of the revised budget for 2009]’ , press release 182/HMS/2009 , MOF , Jakarta , 31 December .

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