Indonesia's economic performance in comparative perspective and a new policy framework for 2049

Figures & data

TABLE 1 Characteristics of the Nine Developing Countries Selected for Comparative Economic Analysis

	Population in 2006–09 (UN estimates, million)	Population Rank (of 221 units)	Land Area (‘000 km^2)	Geographical Size Rank (of 231 units)	GDP per Capita in 2008 Intl.$ (IMF PPP estimate)	Income per Capita Rank (of 180)	Income Class^a	Degree of Dependence on Oil Export Earnings in 1980
								% of total goods exports	% of state revenue^b
Indonesia	230.0	4	1,904.6	16	3,987	121	LMI	81.1	107.1
Populous, geographically large, developing, and heavily dependent on oil exports in 1970–2000 period
Mexico	109.6	11	1,964.4	15	14,560	54	UMI	50.3	30.4
Nigeria	154.7	8	923.8	32	2,134	140	LI	91.4	111.5
Highly populous, and geographically very large
China	1,337.7	1	9,598.1	4	5,963	100	LMI	21.4	5.3
India	1,162.7	2	3,287.3	7	2,762	129	LMI	0.6	0.2
Brazil	191.2	5	8,514.9	5	10,326	77	UMI	1.7	0.7
Neighbourhood context: same ecological and climate zones and same economic system (historically a capitalist economy)
Malaysia	28.2	43	329.8	66	14,072	60	UMI	27.5	50.4
Thailand	63.4	21	513.1	50	8,225	86	LMI	1.0	1.3
Philippines	92.2	12	300.0	72	3,546	123	LMI	0.1	0.1
^a LMI = lower-middle-income; UMI = upper-middle-income; LI = low-income.
^b As the oil export earnings usually go to state-owned oil companies, state revenue takes only a portion of the earnings. For example, for Indonesia in 1980, petroleum revenue accounted for 69% of total revenue, suggesting a tax rate of about 65%.
Sources: Population, land area and income data are from <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/> (‘List_of_countries_by_population’; ‘List_of_countries_and_outlying_territories_by_area’; and ‘List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita’, respectively), accessed on 1 August 2009. Income classification data are from the country classification section of the World Development Indicators database at <http://www.worldbank.org/data/>. Oil export earnings are derived by adding the values for SITC (Standard International Trade Classification) 33 and SITC 34 in the UN Trade Database (United Nations 2007). The International Monetary Fund's International Financial Statistics (IFS) is the source for data on: (a) total goods exports (from the balance of payments); and (b) state revenue (consolidated state revenue converted into dollars using the ‘rf’ [period-average] series in the IFS).

TABLE 2 Macroeconomic Indicators

			Populous Oil Exporters		Highly Populous Developing Nations			Southeast Asian Neighbours
		Indonesia	Mexico	Nigeria	China	India	Brazil	Malaysia	Thailand	Philippines
Part A: GDP per capita, growth rate
Average growth rate
Whole sample	1961–2007	3.67	2.07	1.20	6.49	2.93	2.36	3.99	4.74	1.51
Indonesia sub-periods
Post-Soekarno	1967–2007	4.21	1.82	1.27	7.22	3.25	2.49	4.02	4.76	1.46
Soeharto	1967–1997	5.09	1.74	0.85	6.72	2.52	2.86	4.59	5.47	1.20
Post-Soeharto	2000–2007	3.71	1.86	3.53	9.27	5.65	1.99	3.58	4.22	3.00
China sub-periods
Reform	1979–2007	3.83	1.37	0.51	8.61	3.77	1.01	3.84	4.63	0.96
Deepen market	1992–2007	3.01	1.63	1.47	9.47	4.99	1.46	3.83	3.60	1.97
Coefficient of variation
Whole sample	1961–2007	1.04	1.57	6.01	1.12	1.12	1.67	0.83	0.76	1.98
Indonesia sub-periods
Post-Soekarno	1967–2007	0.88	1.81	5.93	0.71	0.96	1.64	0.88	0.80	2.19
Soeharto	1967–1997	0.44	2.10	9.97	0.85	1.20	1.57	0.65	0.56	2.85
Post-Soeharto	2000–2007	0.17	0.94	0.78	0.12	0.33	0.41	0.50	0.36	0.32
China sub-periods
Reform	1979–2007	1.06	2.65	9.77	0.33	0.82	3.37	0.98	0.92	3.70
Deepen market	1992–2007	1.65	1.91	2.12	0.21	0.42	1.38	1.10	1.33	1.12
Part B: Price stability ^a
Average inflation rate
Whole sample	1961–2007	54.77	23.52	17.06	6.42	7.58	432.66	3.22	4.91	9.87
Indonesia sub-periods
Post-Soekarno	1967–2007	17.83	26.63	18.99	6.42	7.67	432.66	3.61	5.28	10.60
Soeharto	1967–1997	18.79	32.83	21.38	11.28	8.40	683.26	4.01	6.07	12.25
Post-Soeharto	2000–2007	8.74	5.21	12.40	1.63	4.51	7.29	1.98	2.48	4.98
China sub-periods
Reform	1979–2007	11.31	32.91	21.59	6.42	7.91	432.66	3.20	4.75	10.22
Deepen market	1992–2007	12.38	12.28	24.07	5.25	6.79	319.41	2.84	3.62	6.17
Part C: Exchange rate stability ^b
Average rate of currency depreciation against the dollar Indonesia sub-periods
Post-Soekarno	1968–2007	14.77	23.27	20.37	3.40	4.60	269.11	0.54	1.52	7.11
Soeharto	1968–1997	11.65	29.89	15.35	4.82	5.64	356.15	−0.16	1.50	7.68
Post-Soeharto	2000–2007	2.36	1.78	4.06	−1.04	−0.40	2.01	−1.22	−0.96	2.43
China sub-periods
Reform	1979–2007	15.56	29.66	28.49	5.94	6.01	363.85	1.65	2.17	7.24
Deepen market	1992–2007	17.77	9.91	28.48	2.84	4.03	306.12	1.87	2.42	3.88
^a Data on CPI inflation are available only from 1987 for China and from 1981 for Brazil.
^b Official exchange rate, units of national currency against the dollar. Data for Indonesia are available only from 1968 onward.
Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics.

TABLE 3 GDP per Capita (constant 2005 PPP [purchasing power parity] international dollars)

	Populous Oil Exporters			Highly Populous Developing Nations			Southeast Asian Neighbours
	Indonesia	Mexico	Nigeria	China	India	Brazil	Malaysia	Thailand	Philippines
1960^a	668.3	4,719.6	1,197.7	297.1	685.5	3,122.3	2,076.1	897.6	1,620.3
1970^a	799.0	6,608.3	1,455.0	344.5	811.1	4,292.1	2,918.8	1,460.2	1,939.3
1980	1,350.5	9,449.5	1,749.1	525.2	868.9	7,629.8	4,891.4	2,255.1	2,619.3
1985	1,615.5	9,313.3	1,305.6	816.0	1,003.5	7,194.8	5,508.0	2,708.0	2,174.7
1990	2,085.3	9,176.3	1,463.5	1,103.2	1,206.8	7,235.3	6,645.8	4,139.5	2,431.5
1995	2,815.6	9,038.3	1,433.6	1,853.4	1,409.1	7,748.8	9,185.3	5,908.1	2,416.1
2000	2,724.2	10,966.2	1,456.5	2,673.7	1,716.7	7,936.5	10,270.7	5,728.9	2,637.1
2006	3,348.6	11,805.1	1,795.3	4,537.2	2,412.4	8,673.1	12,204.6	7,378.4	3,057.6
^a The 1960 and 1970 levels are not definitive, but are intended to be indicative of disparity across countries. They were obtained by using the growth rates reported in table 2 (which were based on respective constant national prices) and the 1980 income levels reported in table 3.
Source: Data for 1980 onward are from the World Development Indicators database at <http://www.worldbank.org/data/>.

TABLE 4 Quality of Life: Nutrition, Life Expectancy and Infant Mortality

			1971		1981		1992	1997	2003	2004
Part A: Under-nourishment rate (UNR) (% of population under-nourished)
Indonesia			47		24		9	6	6	6
Mexico			12		5		5	5	5	5
Nigeria			27		37		13	9	9	9
China			46		30		16	12	12	12
India			39		38		25	21	20	20
Brazil			23		15		12	10	8	7
Malaysia							5	5		5 (2005)
Thailand							29	21		17 (2005)
Philippines							21	18		16 (2005)
	1960	1967	1970	1977	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	2006
Part B: Life expectancy at birth (LEB) (number of years)
Indonesia	41.5	46.0	47.9	52.7	54.8	58.6	61.7	64.0	65.8	68.2
Mexico	57.3	60.3	61.7	65.3	66.8	69.0	70.9	72.4	74.0	74.5
Nigeria	38.7	41.0	42.1	44.5	45.3	46.5	47.2	47.5	46.9	46.8
China	36.3	59.6	61.7	65.4	66.8	68.3	68.9	69.4	70.3	72.0
India	44.3	48.0	49.4	52.9	54.2	56.6	59.1	61.4	62.9	64.5
Brazil	54.8	57.7	58.9	61.6	62.8	64.7	66.6	68.6	70.4	72.1
Malaysia	54.3	59.4	61.6	65.3	66.9	68.9	70.3	71.5	72.6	74.0
Thailand	55.1	58.4	59.7	62.6	63.9	65.7	67.0	67.6	68.3	70.2
Philippines	53.4	56.4	57.4	60.1	61.3	63.4	65.6	67.7	69.6	71.4
	1960	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	2006
Part C: Infant mortality rate (IMR) (infant deaths per 1,000 live births)
Indonesia	128.0	121.0	104.0	94.0	79.0	70.0	60.0	48.0	36.0	26.4
Mexico	93.2	86.3	79.0	69.2	57.8	44.1	41.5	36.1	31.6	29.1
Nigeria	165.0	157.0	140.0	120.0	117.0	120.0	120.0	120.0	107.0	98.6
China			84.0	64.2	46.5	36.6	36.3	35.1	29.9	20.1
India	157.7	143.1	130.0	118.0	1130	97.0	80.0	74.0	68.0	57.4
Brazil	115.3	105.8	95.2	82.7	70.1	59.5	48.1	36.1	26.9	18.6
Malaysia	72.0	56.0	46.0	38.0	31.0	23.0	16.0	13.0	11.0	9.8
Thailand	103.1	84.1	73.9	61.3	46.1	34.2	26.0	17.1	11.4	7.0
Philippines	63.1	60.7	58.4	56.1	53.8	51.0	42.7	32.9	28.5	23.6
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, <http://www.worldbank.org/data/>.

TABLE 5 Education Attainment of Population

	1991	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
Indonesia
Literacy rate, adults^a	81.7^d				90.4
Persistence to last grade of primary^b		86.0	86.4		85.4	79.6
School enrolment, secondary^c	44.3	56.7	58.0	61.1	63.3	62.2
School enrolment, tertiary^c		14.4	15.0	16.1	16.6	17.0
Mexico
Literacy rate, adults^a	87.7^d	90.7^e	90.4		91.0	91.7
Persistence to last grade of primary^b		89.0	91.3	90.4	91.6	92.2
School enrolment, secondary^c	53.4	74.5	77.2	81.3	83.3	84.7
School enrolment, tertiary^c	14.7	20.5	21.8	23.0	24.3	25.3
Nigeria
Literacy rate, adults^a	55.7				69.1
Persistence to last grade of primary^b				62.7
School enrolment, secondary^c	23.9	23.1^f			32.8	32.4
School enrolment, tertiary^c		6.3^f		9.6	9.7	10.1
China
Literacy rate, adults^a	77.6 ^d	90.8^e
Persistence to last grade of primary^b
School enrolment, secondary^c	48.9	65.0		70.1		75.5^g
School enrolment, tertiary^c	2.9			15.4		21.6^g
India
Literacy rate, adults^a	47.7	60.6
Persistence to last grade of primary^b		61.6		78.8	73.0
School enrolment, secondary^c	41.6	46.1	47.8	50.1	51.5	53.8
School enrolment, tertiary^c	6.0	9.8	10.3	10.8	11.2	11.0
Brazil
Literacy rate, adults^a		86.4^e			88.6
Persistence to last grade of primary^b		80.2^e
School enrolment, secondary^c		106.6	109.5	102.0	105.7	105.5
School enrolment, tertiary^c	11.2	17.8	20.2	22.3	23.8	25.5
Malaysia
Literacy rate, adults^a	82.9	88.7^e
Persistence to last grade of primary^b	95.7		97.7
School enrolment, secondary^c	56.9	65.1	65.8	71.3	72.4	69.1
School enrolment, tertiary^c		25.5	28.1	31.3	30.7	28.6
Thailand
Literacy rate, adults^a		92.7^e
Persistence to last grade of primary^b
School enrolment, secondary^c	32.6	66.6	68.4	68.7	71.6	77.3
School enrolment, tertiary^c		39.4	41.0	42.4	43.6	46.0
Philippines
Literacy rate, adults^a	93.6^d	92.6^e		92.6
Persistence to last grade of primary^b		75.5	73.7	72.4	71.9	70.7
School enrolment, secondary^c	70.7	77.0	81.7	83.7	85.6	84.9
School enrolment, tertiary^c			30.5	29.4	28.8	28.1
^a % of persons aged 15 and above. ^b % of cohort.
^c Gross enrolment ratio (ratio of total enrolment, regardless of age, to the population of the age group that officially corresponds to the level of education shown). ^d1990. ^e 2000. ^f 1999. ^g 2006.
Source: As for table 4.

TABLE 6 Change in the Composition of Exports

	Export Type/GDP (%)					Export Type/Total Exports (%)
	Total Exports	Manufactured Exports	High-tech &Med–high-tech Manuf.	Non-oil Raw Materials Exports	Oil Exports	Manufactured Exports	High-tech & Med–high-tech Manuf.	Non-oil Raw Materials Exports	Oil Exports
Indonesia
1970	14.3	0.5	0.1	8.2	5.7	3.4	0.6	56.8	39.6
1981	26.7	1.1	0.1	4.1	21.5	4.1	0.5	15.3	80.5
1987	25.9	6.1	0.3	6.6	12.7	23.7	1.1	25.7	49.0
1996	25.4	13.3	3.0	6.2	5.9	52.1	11.9	24.3	23.1
2005	36.2	25.9	4.9	5.8	4.1	71.6	13.6	15.9	11.5
Mexico
1970	5.0	1.8	0.7	2.8	0.2	35.5	13.3	56.8	3.5
1981	9.0	2.4	1.2	1.1	5.3	26.7	13.1	12.7	58.7
1987	20.6	11.0	6.6	2.9	6.2	53.2	32.1	13.9	30.1
1996	28.2	22.0	14.6	2.5	2.9	77.8	51.7	8.7	10.2
2005	16.7	12.6	9.4	1.6	2.2	75.5	56.3	9.6	13.4
Nigeria
1970	10.2	0.4	0.0	3.4	6.4	3.5	0.2	33.4	62.9
1981	31.1	0.2	0.0	0.7	30.2	0.6	0.1	2.3	97.1
1987	34.2	0.6	0.3	1.4	32.2	1.7	0.8	4.1	94.2
1996	49.5	0.8	0.1	2.2	46.5	1.7	0.2	4.4	93.9
2002	31.5	1.6	0.1	0.3	29.6	5.0	0.3	0.9	94.0
China
1970	1.8	0.8	0.1	1.0	0.0	45.3	6.0	54.3	0.3
1981	10.3	5.2	0.6	2.8	2.3	50.5	6.0	27.0	22.1
1987	18.2	11.5	2.6	3.9	1.6	63.5	14.1	21.7	8.6
1996	29.9	26.7	10.8	2.5	0.5	89.4	36.2	8.4	1.6
2005	34.1	31.8	17.6	1.7	0.5	93.4	51.6	5.1	1.4
India
1970	3.7	1.8	0.2	1.8	0.0	49.5	5.1	49.0	0.9
1981	3.6	2.1	0.2	1.4	0.0	59.0	6.8	40.2	0.4
1987	4.8	3.0	0.4	1.5	0.4	61.4	7.9	30.2	7.8
1996	9.8	7.2	1.1	2.5	0.1	72.9	11.1	25.2	1.4
2004	20.6	13.8	3.2	4.4	2.0	67.0	15.6	21.5	9.6
Brazil
1970	7.1	0.8	0.2	6.2	0.0	11.9	3.4	87.1	0.5
1981	9.3	3.3	1.6	5.3	0.5	35.8	16.7	57.1	4.9
1987	10.0	4.8	1.8	4.7	0.3	48.2	18.4	47.2	3.4
1996	6.1	3.3	1.2	2.7	0.1	53.3	19.0	43.4	0.9
2005	13.4	7.3	3.6	5.0	0.8	54.4	27.0	37.3	6.0
Malaysia
1970	48.2	10.6	0.9	35.0	2.4	22.0	1.8	72.6	5.0
1981	55.8	15.8	8.0	27.2	12.5	28.3	14.3	48.7	22.3
1987	66.0	25.4	16.1	28.2	11.8	38.4	24.4	42.7	17.8
1996	90.4	70.3	53.4	12.3	6.7	77.8	59.1	13.7	7.5
2005 :	155.3	121.1	85.2	10.9	22.7	78.0	54.9	7.0	14.6
Thailand
1970	10.6	1.9	0.0	8.6	0.0	17.7	0.4	81.1	0.2
1981	20.7	6.6	1.2	14.0	0.0	32.0	5.6	67.3	0.2
1987	24.1	12.0	3.3	11.7	0.2	49.7	13.8	48.7	0.8
1996	33.3	24.2	14.5	8.2	0.4	72.6	43.7	24.8	1.2
2005	62.4	48.2	29.5	10.4	2.7	77.3	47.2	16.7	4.3
Philippines
1970	18.6	1.8	0.1	16.3	0.3	9.8	0.5	87.9	1.6
1981	19.4	7.2	2.9	11.5	0.3	37.2	15.0	59.4	1.5
1987	20.7	12.2	5.0	7.7	0.4	58.9	24.1	37.4	2.0
1996	29.8	24.8	17.7	4.2	0.5	83.2	59.3	14.0	1.6
2004	91.3	83.3	69.6	6.7	1.2	91.2	76.2	7.3	1.3
Source: Feenstra (2005); Feenstra and Lipsey (2005); United Nations (2007).

FIGURE 1  Indonesia: Export Categories as a Share of GDP (%)

Source: As for table 6.

FIGURE 2  Indonesia: Export Categories as a Share of Total Exports (%)

Source: As for table 6.

FIGURE 3  Mexico: Export Categories as a Share of GDP (%)

Source: As for table 6.

FIGURE 4  Mexico: Export Categories as a Share of Total Exports (%)

Source: As for table 6.

FIGURE 5  Malaysia: Export Categories as a Share of GDP (%)

Source: As for table 6.

FIGURE 6  Malaysia: Export Categories as a Share of Total Exports (%)

Source: As for table 6.

TABLE 7 Indicators of Research and Innovation Capacity^a

	1981	1985	1991	1996	2000	2005
Indonesia
Scientific & technical journal articles		72^b	89	141	182	205
R&D expenditure (% of GDP)					0.1
Researchers in R&D (per million people)	112.1^c	129.8			212.5
China
Scientific & technical journal articles	1,100	1,943	6,186	10,526	18,479	41,596
R&D expenditure (% of GDP)				0.6	0.9	1.3
Researchers in R&D (per million people)				447.1	547.3	852.0
Brazil
Scientific & technical journal articles	1,438	1,465	2,640	3,813	6,407	9,889
R&D expenditure (% of GDP)				0.7	0.9	0.8
Researchers in R&D (per million people)					367.5	461.0^d
India
Scientific & technical journal articles	11,725	9,586	9,517	9,753	10,276	14,608
R&D expenditure (% of GDP)				0.6	0.8	0.7^d
Researchers in R&D (per million people)				153.5	110.8
Mexico
Scientific & technical journal articles	648	740	1,082	2,124	2,971	3,902
R&D expenditure (% of GDP)				0.3	0.4	0.5
Researchers in R&D (per million people)		225.7^e		212.8	222.3^f	464.2
Nigeria
Scientific & technical journal articles	780	757	719	435	400	362
R&D expenditure (% of GDP)
Researchers in R&D (per million people)		17.1
Malaysia
Scientific & technical journal articles		186^b	260	362	460	615
R&D expenditure (% of GDP)				0.2	0.5	0.6^d
Researchers in R&D (per million people)				89.7	276.0	502.9^d
Philippines
Scientific & technical journal articles		151^b	148	158	185	178
R&D expenditure (% of GDP)					0.15^g	0.14^h
Researchers in R&D (per million people)			156.0^j
Thailand
Scientific & technical journal articles		226^b	298	387	663	1,249
R&D expenditure (% of GDP)				0.1	0.3	0.3^b
Researchers in R&D (per million people)				103.8	289.4^k	291.6^h
^a R&D = research & development.
^b 1986. ^c 1982. ^d 2004. ^e 1984.
^f 1999. ^g 2002. ^h 2003. ^j 1992. ^k 2001.
Source: World Bank, World Economic Indicators, <http://www.worldbank.org/data/>.

United Nations 2007 UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database , available at< http://comtrade.un.org/ > .

 Google Scholar

Feenstra , Robert C. 2005 NBER–United Nations trade data, 1962–2000 (machine-readable data file) , University of California , Davis, CA .

 Google Scholar

Feenstra , Robert C. Lipsey , Robert E. , with assistance from Deng, Haiyan, Ma, Alyson C. and Mo, Hengyong 2005 ‘World trade flows, 1962–2000’ , NBER Working Paper No. 11040 , National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) , Cambridge, MA .

 Google Scholar