An online hazard prediction test demonstrates differences in the ability to identify hazardous situations between different driving groups

Figures & data

Table 1. Demographic data for all participants across driving experience.

	Experienced drivers N = 43 Females N = 18 Males N = 25		Novice Drivers N = 31 Females N = 15 Males N = 16
	M	SD	M	SD
Age	33.49	11.27	18.81	2.30
Driving Experience (years)	13.98	9.52	1.48	2.16
Annual mileage	6858	15207	619.23	766.07

Figure 1. The frame sequence illustrates the progression of a hazardous trial (prior to occlusion) from the point where the bus starts to turn left (bottom image), through the point where the bus emits a flash of the indicator (middle image) and the point immediately prior to occlusion where the bus has already emitted a couple of flashes of the indicator (top image).

A driver’s perspective of a three-way motorway and right, left and rear-view mirrors. The right lane is heavily congested with cars and buses.

Figure 2. The frame sequence illustrates the progression of a non-hazardous trial (prior to occlusion) from the cyclist in front (bottom image), through the driving car approaching the cyclist (middle image) and the point immediately prior to occlusion where the cyclist simply continues their trajectory.

A driver’s perspective of an urban road and right, left and rear-view mirrors. There is a cyclist in front with cars, trees, and buildings on both sides of the road.

Table 2. A description of the a priori hazardous and non-hazardous traffic situations selected for each clip.

Clip number	Type of clip	Content	Hazard	Duration of the clips (ms)
1	Hazard	You are driving along a narrow residential road, with cars parked on the right side of the street. One of the parked cars turns on its brake lights and another car emerges from the right side of the street. The clip occludes at the moment when the front part of the emerging car is partially visible.	A car emerges from a side road on the left	16800
2	Hazard	You enter an underpass and find congestion in multiple lanes. A car in lane to your right signals and cuts your path. The clip occludes with the first flash of the car’s indicator signal.	A car on the left side cuts into your lane	27866
3	Hazard	You are driving on an urban dual carriageway road and there is an additional lane where there are parked cars. In the right mirror, a taxi is visible. It undertakes your car in time to avoid colliding with one of the parked cars. The clip occludes during the undertaking manoeuvre, when the taxi is no longer visible at the right mirror.	A taxi undertakes from the right	40666
4	Hazard	You are waiting at red traffic lights near an upcoming road diversion. There is congestion in the lane to your left. In your right mirror a van is visible that approaches the diversion. It quickly undertakes your car and squeezes between you and the car ahead, into your lane. The clip occludes during the undertake when the van is no longer visible on the right mirror.	A van undertakes and cuts into your lane	22300
5	Hazard	You are driving on a narrow urban road and there is a truck in front of your car. There are parked cars on the right side of the road and a pedestrian is approaching towards the street. The clip occludes at the moment when the pedestrian looks at your car, prior to stepping into the road.	A pedestrian steps into the road from the right	16166
6	Hazard	While you are driving along a congested urban road the car in front moves into the lane on your left. The driver then suddenly brakes and cuts back into your lane. The clip occludes after the car’s indicator emits a couple of flashes before moving back into your lane.	The car on the left cuts into your lane	21166
7	Hazard	You are driving along the middle lane of a motorway while the right lane is heavily congested. One of the urban buses from the right lane pulls into your lane. The clip occludes when the bus has slightly started to turn left and have emitted a couple of flashes.	A bus from the right cuts into your lane	18333
8	Hazard	You are driving along a residential area with pedestrians crossing the street. You are approaching a roundabout where there is a zebra crossing. Suddenly a cyclist appears from the right and crosses the street. The clip occludes when the cyclist is visible through the right window of the car.	A cyclist from the right crosses the street	19500
9	Hazard	While driving along a narrow road, you can see a car ahead with its emergency lights on, while still moving. The car then turns into a side street on the left but immediately starts reversing back into the main road. The clip occludes at the moment when the car starts to reverse.	A car reverses into your path	13000
10	Hazard	You are driving along a congested urban road. All traffic lights are green. On the right-hand side, there are cars waiting to join the main road. A motorbike appears from the right and approaches the main road without stopping at the red lights. The clip occludes at the moment when the motorbike is about to join your lane.	A motorbike joins the main street from the right	19700
11	Hazard	You are driving on a three-way carriageway. An urban bus from the right lane intends to join your lane. The clip occludes when the bus has started slightly to turn left and has two flashes of its indicator.	A bus cuts into your lane from the right	14600
12	Hazard	You are waiting for the traffic lights to turn green. You start driving slowly as the traffic is congested. In the left mirror a motorcycle is visible which approaches very fast and cuts into your lane. The clip occludes during the overtaking manoeuvre, when the motorbike is no longer visible in the mirror and begins to enter your forward view.	A motorbike cuts into your lane from the left	19233
13	Hazard	You are driving on a narrow road with parked cars on your right side. One of the parked cars is trying to join your path. The clip occludes at the moment when the brake lights of the car are visible and it has started to slightly move.	A parked car from the right tries to join your lane	16200
1	No Hazard	You are driving along a narrow street and the traffic lights turn red	–	31800
2	No Hazard	You are driving along a motorway and the two-lane narrows into one lane	–	19733
3	No Hazard	You are driving on a busy urban road and a bus is waiting on your right	–	22200
4	No Hazard	You are driving along a narrow dual road and there is a cyclist in front of you	–	21300
5	No Hazard	You are driving along an urban road and the traffic lights ahead turn red	–	17800
6	No Hazard	You are driving along a busy urban road with pedestrians and cars on both sides	–	23100
7	No Hazard	You are driving along a busy road with cars constantly undertaking you	–	21100
8	No Hazard	You are driving along a motorway and there is a motorcyclist in front of you	–	17300
9	No Hazard	While driving the car in front of you brakes but then continues its way and joins the roundabout	–	21100
10	No Hazard	You are driving on a three-lane motorway with a busy left lane	–	25000
11	No Hazard	You are driving on a busy motorway with cars constantly braking in front of you	–	16900
12	No Hazard	You are driving along a five lane motorway and traffic circulates around you	–	23066
13	No Hazard	You are driving along an urban road and there is a lorry in front of you	–	21033

Figure 3. Percentage of prediction accuracy across driving groups with standard error bars representing 95% confidence interval. The dashed line represents the mean chance expectancy.

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A two-bar graph plotting the percentage of hazard prediction accuracy of novice and experienced drivers. The bar graph representing experienced drivers is showing significantly higher percentage for accuracy in prediction.

Figure 4. Percentage of correctly identifying that there was a hazard vs. failing to identify the hazardous situation for the hazardous clips across the experienced groups with standard error bars representing 95% confidence interval. The dashed line represents the mean chance expectancy.

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Two sets of bar graphs plotting the percentage of hazard prediction accuracy and hazard detection for novices (bars in white) and experienced drivers (bars in black). The bar graph for hazard detection representing experienced drivers is showing significantly higher percentage for accuracy in prediction.

Figure 5. (a) (Top left) one of the parked cars turns on its brake lights and another car emerges from the right side of the street. (b) (Top right) a car on the left starts reversing back into the main road. (c) (Bottom left) a motorbike appears from the right and approaches the main road without stopping at the red lights. (d) (Bottom right) an urban bus from the right intends to join the lane of the camera car.

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(a) (Top left) a driver’s perspective of a narrow residential road and right, left and rear-view mirrors. There are cars parked on the right side of the street, vegetation on the left and another car driving in front. (b) (Top right) a driver’s perspective of a residential road and right, left and rear-view mirrors. There are parked cars, trees and buildings on both sides of the road. (c) (Bottom left) a driver’s perspective of a congested urban road and right, left and rear-view mirrors. There are palm trees on the left, cars driving in front and a motorbike about to join the road on the right. (d) (Bottom right) a driver’s perspective of three-way carriageway and right, left and rear-view mirrors. A bus and a car are visible on the right with traffic lights in green and vegetation on both sides of the road.

Figure 6. Hazard prediction accuracy scores across all hazardous clips for both experienced and novice drivers (with standard error bars added).

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Multiple bar graphs plotting the percentage of hazard prediction accuracy for thirteen clips across novices (bars in white) and experienced drivers (bars in black). The majority of bar graphs representing experienced drivers with significantly higher percentage for prediction accuracy.