Improving prophylaxis for pollen allergies: Predicting the time course of the pollen load of the atmosphere of major allergenic plants in France and Spain

Figures & data

The pollen sampler- and geographical data at observation sites.

Code	Country	Location	Lat.	Long.	Elev. (m a.s.l.)	Trap type	Record period
1	France	Lille	50°39′	3°05′E	21	Cour	1977–1979
2	France	Rouen	49°26′	1°05′E	5	Cour	1977–1980
3	France	Angers	47°29′	0°32′W	20	Cour	1977–1979
4	France	Tours	47°23′	0°42′E	108	Cour	1981–1982
5	France	Nancy	48°42′	6°12′E	200	Cour	1981–1982
6	France	Clermont-Ferrand	45°47′	3°05′E	394	Cour	1986–1989
7	France	Bordeaux	44°50′	0°33′W	4	Cour	1977–1979; 1981
8	France	Toulouse	43°37′	1°27′E	146	Cour	1981–1985; 1989
9	France	Lyon	45°46′	4°51′E	282	Cour	1982–1998
10	France	Montpellier	43°36′	3°53′E	81	Cour	1974–1992
11	Spain	Albacete	38°56′	1°51′W	690	Cour	1992–1999
12	Spain	Barcelona	41°24′	2°09′E	93	Cour/Hirst	1983–1985; 1988–1999
13	Spain	Bellaterra	41°34′	2°06′E	245	Cour/Hirst	1988–1999
14	Spain	Cáceres	39°30′	6°22′E	460	Cour	1988–1997
15	Spain	Castelló de la Plana	39°57′	0°04′W	35	Cour	1995–1998
16	Spain	Ciutat de Palma	39°35′	2°39′E	4	Cour	1983–1984; 1989–1994
17	Spain	Elx	38°16′	0°42′W	86	Cour	1998–1999
18	Spain	Girona	41°58′	2°49′W	98	Cour/Hirst	1983–1984; 1989–1999
19	Spain	Hellin	38°31′	1°59′W	500	Cour	1992–1995
20	Spain	Lleida	41°39′	0°38′E	202	Cour/Hirst	1992–1999
21	Spain	Maó	39°53′	4°15′E	59	Cour	1987–1991
22	Spain	Pego	38°50′	0°04′E	82	Cour	1995–1999
23	Spain	Pontevedra	42°26′	8°36′W	107	Cour	1995–1999
24	Spain	Roquetes	40°49′	0°58′E	50	Cour	1988–1997
25	Spain	València	39°28′	0°22′W	11	Cour	1995–1999
26	Spain	Vigo	42°16′	8°43′W	255	Cour	1990–1999
27	Spain	Zaragoza	41°38′	0°53′W	237	Cour	1986–1990
28	Austria	Vienna	48°13′	16°20′E	230	Hirst	1976–1999
29	Poland	Kraków	50°03′	19°58′E	213	Hirst	1992–2000
Lat – latitude; Long – longitude; Elev – elevation.

Variance explained (R²) in the dates of flowering of each taxon in Bellaterra and Girona (Catalonia, Spain) by the Unified Model, and parameter estimates (20 years of observations).

Taxon	R^2	ac	bc	cc	df	ef	w	z	C	tc
Alnus	0.411ns	0.497	−9.36	−7.653	10.000	−17.22	1663.4	−0.0388	50.30	70
Betula	0.535ns	1.005	−23.86	5.188	−32.363	−12.22	2463.4	−0.0280	136.70	199
Castanea	0.588ns	6.776	−3.89	−13.702	−0.771	−20.00	43.3	−0.1541	1.34	86
Corylus	0.475ns	6.648	−27.66	−10.770	−40.000	−2.77	110.8	−0.00076	2.84	86
Cupressaceae	0.444ns	2.417	−30.00	−14.962	10.000	−17.54	308.4	−0.0253	24.06	34
Olea	0.815**	5.853	−19.29	−12.123	−3.3234	−17.95	61.8	−0.0608	12.24	201
Platanus	0.759*	0.437	−11.12	−0.884	−1.309	−7.36	460.6	−0.0142	148.97	158
Populus	0.512ns	0.072	−2.00	0.859	−40.000	−6.94	685.8	−0.0188	170.93	174
Quercus	0.496ns	3.648	−9.08	−4.276	−4.301	−19.88	43.2	−0.3841	6.69	177
Tilia	0.790*	4.581	5.36	−7.927	−40.000	−9.44	156.8	−0.03142	4.36	155
Artemisia	0.426ns	2.583	−20.136	−4.344	−17.054	7.572	200.36	−0.00025	58.37	265
Plantago	0.592ns	2.974	−19.830	−5.158	−2.157	−14.541	111.49	−0.02674	30.36	205
Poaceae	0.475ns	1.365	−25.853	−2.047	−40.000	−13.985	760.06	−0.02112	152.51	197
ns – not significant, p>0.05; * – p<0.05; ** – p<0.01.

Variance explained (R²) in the dates of flowering in Bellaterra and Girona (Catalonia, Spain) by the simplified models for each taxon.

Taxon	Simplified model	R^2	p
Alnus	Spring Warming	0.260	0.1536
Betula	Spring Warming	0.382	0.0382
Castanea	UniChill	0.607	0.0478
Corylus	UniForc	0.141	0.6299
Cupressaceae	UniChill	0.649	0.0261
Olea	Spring Warming	0.502	0.0068
Platanus	UniForc	0.739	0.0002
Populus	Spring Warming	0.515	0.0055
Quercus	UniChill	0.449	0.2463
Tilia	UniForc	0.566	0.0070
Artemisia	Photoperiod	0.445	0.0440
Plantago	UniForc	0.575	0.0019
Poaceae	UniForc	0.375	0.0525

Variance explained (R²) by the models in each region (R1-R9) and in all regions together (total).

Taxon	Model	R^2
		Total	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9
Alnus	SW	0.430***	0.686**	0.700**	0.422ns	0.952***	0.260ns	0.208ns	0.462ns	0.320ns
Betula	SW	0.048ns	0.678**	0.723**	0.993***	0.382*	0.486ns	0.231ns	0.877**	0.586**
Castanea	UniC	0.458***	0.787ns	0.727ns	0.848**	0.616*	0.533ns
Corylus	UniF	0.071ns	0.845***	0.916***	0.958***	0.141ns	0.307ns	0.583*	0.373ns
Cupressaceae	UniC	0.647***	0.584ns	0.563ns	0.563ns	0.774ns	0.977***	0.532ns	0.519ns
Olea	SW	0.296***	0.956***	0.502ns	0.704***	0.360ns
Platanus	UniF	0.845***	0.739**	0.872***	0.785**	0.889**	0.847***	0.893***	0.475ns	0.613**	0.656ns
Populus	SW	0.586***	0.558*	0.828***	0.903***	0.973***	0.515**	0.835**	0.610ns
Quercus	UniC	0.332***	0.187ns	0.504ns	0.702*	0.826**0	0.449ns	0.821ns	0.939ns	0.861**	0.933ns
Tilia	UniF	0.547***	0.312ns	0.089ns	0.459ns	0.566**	0.708ns	0.297ns
Artemisia	Photo	0.693***	0.000ns	0.972ns	0.208ns	0.457ns	0.200ns	0.424ns
Plantago	UniF	0.680***	0.408ns	0.545ns	0.201ns	0.374ns	0.575**	0.647ns	0.737ns	0.872*	0.372ns
Poaceae	UniF	0.479***	0.227ns	0.464ns	0.174ns	0.243ns	0.375*	0.473ns	0.293ns	0.572ns	0.737ns
Despite very high (e.g. R^2>0.9) some percentages of variance are not significant because of low degree of freedom in some area (minimum 10 years; maximum 20 of record per area).Numbers R1 to R9 refer to the different regions (populations, see Fig. 2); ns – not significant, p>0.05; * – p<0.05; ** – p<0.01; *** – p<0.0001.

Location of the populations defined for each taxon to run the test of genetic differentiation. One population is defined by the group of locations with the same number. See Appendix for the correspondence between station codes and names, and Table I for geographical coordinates.

Percentage of differentiation between the phenology of the different populations.

Taxon	Model	Differentiation (%)
		among every region	among some regions^#
Alnus	SW	46.3***	(1+2+3+4/5+6+7+8)	28.3***
			(5/6/7/8)	47.9***
Betula	SW	54.4***	(4/5/6/7/8)	43.4***
			(4/5/6)	30.2*
			(1/2/3)	24.4***
			(1/2)	21.2**
Castanea	UniC	25.2ns
Corylus	UniF	52.9***	(1/2/3)	69.2***
			(4/5/6/7)	44.9**
			(2/3)	76.7***
Cupressaceae	UniC	23.8*
Olea	SW	21.3**	(2/3)	21.2*
Platanus	UniF	7.9***	(1+2+3+4/5+6+7+8+9)	1.8*
			(5/6/7/8/9)	21.9*
			(5/6/7)	17.5*
Populus	SW	19.3***	(1/2/3/4)	15.0**
			(2/3/4)	11.5**
			(1/2/3)	16.9**
			(3/4)	12.3**
			(1/2)	10.9*
Quercus	UniC	51.3***	(1+2+3+4/5+6+7+8+9)	16.2***
			(1/2/3/4)	35.3*
			(5/6/7/8/9)	37.7***
			(6/7/8/9)	42.7***
Tilia	UniF	18.0ns
Artemisia	Photo	27.1***	(1+2+3/4+5+6)	25.0***
Plantago	UniF	23.9***	(1+2+3+4/5+6+7+8+9+10)	13.3***
			(5/6/7/8/9/10)	39.2***
			(6/7/8/9/10)	51.6***
Poaceae	UniF	24.2*	(1+2+3+4/5+6+7+8+9+10)	5.2*
			(5/6/7/8/9/10)	34.6*
(1+2+3+4/5+6+7) − Differentiation between regions R1, R2, R3, R4 all together and regions R5, R6, R7 all together; (1/2/3) − Differentiation between regions R1, R2 and R3; ns – non significant; * – p<0.05; ** – p<0.01; *** – p<0.0001; ^# – only significant differentiations are shown.

Location of the 29 pollen- and associated meteorological stations used in the study (see Table I for the correspondence between station codes and names, and geographical data).

Results of cross-validation test: predictions in different Spanish locations not included in the model fit using parameter estimates of the closest population. A. Alnus; B. Betula; C. Castanea; D. Corylus; E. Olea; F. Platanus; G. Populus; H. Quercus; I. Tilia; J. Cupressaceae; K. Plantago; L. Poaceae. Dates are in day of the year. The dashed strait line is the bisector (100% matching between predictions and observations).

Variations in the dates of peak of pollen load of Artemisia (A) and in the beginning of pollen shedding of Plantago (B) with latitude. Dates are expressed in day of the year (DOY). Diamonds are the French locations and squares are the Spanish locations. Several years per location are plotted to show the among year variation.

Comparison of predictions of flowering dates (peak of pollen shedding, in day of the year) of Alnus (A), Betula (B), Populus (C) and Platanus (D) in Vienna (Austria) using for each of them parameter estimates from Lyon (France); and of Alnus (E) and Betula (F) in Krakow (Poland) using parameter estimates from northern France, with their respective observed flowering date.

Prediction of the relative pollen load in Lyon (France) in 1982 for Castanea (A), Quercus (B), and Platanus (C), and in Bellaterra (Spain) in 1997 for Platanus (D), Olea (E) and Populus (F). Diamonds are the observed pollen load and grey curves are the predictions obtained with the Corresponding Model for each taxon.