Fuzzy grey GM(1, 1) model under fuzzy system

Abstract

Grey GM(1, 1) forecasting model is a kind of short-term forecasting method which has been successfully applied in management and engineering problems with as little as four data. However, when a new system is constructed, the system is uncertain and variable so that the collected data is usually of fuzzy type, which could not be applied to grey GM(1, 1) model forecast. In order to cope with such problem, the fuzzy system derived from collected data is considered by the fuzzy grey controlled variable to derive a fuzzy grey GM(1, 1) model to forecast the extrapolative values under the fuzzy system. Finally, an example is described for illustration.

Keywords:

• Grey GM(1, 1) model
• Fuzzy grey GM(1, 1) model
• Fuzzy data
• Fuzzy system
• Forecasting

Acknowledgement

The author acknowledges the financial support from National Science Council, Taiwan R.O.C., with project number NSC 92-2213-E-364-002.