Optimal EWMA of linear combination of Poisson variables for multivariate statistical process control

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new process control chart for monitoring correlated Poisson variables, the EWMA LCP chart. This chart is the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) version of the recently proposed LCP chart. The latter is a Shewhart-type control chart whose control statistic is a linear combination of the values of the different Poisson variables (elements of the Poisson vector) at each sampling time. As a Shewhart chart, it is effective at signalling large process shifts but is slow to signal smaller shifts. EWMA charts are known to be more sensitive to small and moderate shifts than their Shewhart-type counterparts, so the motivation of the present development is to enhance the performance of the LCP chart by the incorporation of the EWMA procedure to it. To ease the design of the EWMA LCP chart for the end user, we developed a user-friendly programme that runs on Windows© and finds the optimal design of the chart, that is, the coefficients of the linear combination as well as the EWMA smoothing constant and chart control limits that together minimise the out-of-control ARL under a constraint on the in-control ARL. The optimization is carried out by genetic algorithms where the ARLs are calculated through a Markov chain model. We used this programme to evaluate the performance of the new chart. As expected, the incorporation of the EWMA scheme greatly improves the performance of the LCP chart.

Keywords:

• control chart
• Poisson
• genetic algorithm
• multivariate
• EWMA

Acknowledgements

This research has been supported by SENESCYT-Ecuador (National Secretary of Higher Education, Science, Technology and Innovation of Equator) and by the CNPq (the Brazilian Council for Scientific and Technological Development), projects numbers 307453/2011-1 and 453054/2014-5.